Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Tymoshenko PM by one

Yulia Tymoshenko appointed Prime-minister of Ukraine for a second time.

In what was a laborious, tedious and marginally victorious event Yulia Tymoshenko was declared elected with a majority of one.

226 out of 450 members of Ukraine's parliament one by one raised their hand and voted for Tymoshenko.

The roll call and show of hands was required in order to ensure that members of her own coalition who are opposed to her appointment towed the party line. Proposals to hold a secrete ballot having been rejected by parliamentary coalition.

Yulia Tymoshenko failed to achieve the required absolute majority one week a go. Yulia Tymoshenko and others falsely claimed the Parliamentary electronic voting system malfunctioned or was subject to sabotage. An investigation by Ukraine's Security forces (SBU) ruled out malfunction or sabotage stating that the system was in correct working order.

Having failed to secure support first time around for appointment of the President's nominee Viktor Yushchenko, following threats and intimidation against dissident members of the coalition,resubmitted Yulia's Tymoshenko's nomination. The required show of hands was a way and means of ensuring that those disident members support Yulia's appointment or face dismissal.

Under Ukraine's constitution the Parliament may with the support of a majority of the parliament pass a resolution of no confidence in the prime-minister forcing the dismissal of the prime-minster and the government. One vote is all that is required.

Yulia is on tender hooks as Ukraine enters a period of political instability.

Political commentators anticipate fresh parliamentary elections will be held within 12 months with the opposition in a position to emulate the actions of the governing coalition by resigning their mandate and forcing fresh parliamentary elections at a time of their choosing.

Many believe that a move on Yulia Tymoshenko will occur soon after Ukraine's President and Our Ukraine manage to secure agreement winding back the democratic reforms that saw Ukraine transforemd from a presidential dictatorship to a parliamentary democracy more in line with European standards.

It is unknown if Party of Regions, the largest political party in Ukraine, will support the president's proposals to turn back the clock and reinstate presidential rule.

Unless Yulia can secure the support of bloc Lytvyn her tenure as prime minister will once again be cut short.


Monday, December 17, 2007

Ukraine faces a unstable and unsustainable political future

Ukraine's new Parliament two months after the September 30 election meet last week.

Our Ukraine and Yulia Tymoshenko "Democratic in Name alone"

The election was won by the "orange coalition" which has renamed itself and now calls itself the "Democratic coalition", although its policies and deeds are far from democrartic. Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko with the support of Our Ukraine People's Self Defence bloc, who together represent 45% of the electorate, hold a slender two seat majority in the new parliament.

Prior to the president's controversial and arguable unconstitutional dismissal of Ukraine's previous parliament, Ukraine had a degree of political stability undly to be undermined by Ukraine's President, the new convocation is already showing signs of instability and unsustainability.

The extent of instability became evident when Parliament failed to support Victor Yushenko's nomination of Yulia Tymoshenko for Prime-minister with two members of the so called "democratic coalition" refusing to suport her nomination the parlaiment voted 225 members for and two against. The remaining 223 members refused to particpate and obstained from voting.

Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine tried to down play the division and blamed the embarrassing outcome on a fault with the parliament electronic voting system even as going as far as accusing the opposition of sabatage. The parliaments electronic voting system was later checked by Ukraine's security forces and was given the all clear indicatng that the failure of Yulia to be elected was not due to faulty equipment.

Yulia Tymoshenko, true to form and past actions has resorted to threats, intimidation and blackmail to shore up support for her nomination and appointment as Ukraine's next prime-minister.

Members of Our Ukraine who are opposed to the appointment of Yulia Tymoshenko as Prime-Minister, preferring instead the formation of a broad coalition that involves all political parties, have been threatened with dis-endorsement and dismissal from the parliament if they do not tow the "democratic party" line.

Yulia Tymoshenko has made it perfectly clear that if Our Ukraine does not support her nomination she will stand against Viktor Yushchenko at the next Presidential election. If Yulia withdraws support for Viktor Yushchenko then Our Ukraine and Yushchenko will be assigned into the Ukrainian history books - another victim of Ukraine's historical political divide and betrayal.

The President, who actions have resulted in the divisions and political instability of Ukraine, facing threats and intimidation has renominated Yulia Tymoshenko and the parliament is expected to once again vote on the appointment of Prime-minister later this week

Yulia Tymoshchenko, who previously held the position of Prime-Minister, was removed from Office by Viktor Yushchenko in 2005 and replaced by the President's nominee and member of the president 's political party "Our Ukraine" less then 12 months into Tymoshenko's term of office following serious economic decline and a loss of confidence in Ukraine's political direction.

In March 2006 Yulia Tymoshenko, with the support of Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party of Ukraine narrowly won a majority in the parliament but this majority failed to come into existence following the Our Ukraine's refusal to divide equally the positions of responsibility amongst its coalition allies.

Our Ukraine's ongoing efforts to undermine Ukraine's Parliamentary democracy, in the hope of restoring a presidential dictatorship, resulted in a loss of confidence and withdrawal of support from the Socialist Party and the formation of a new democratic and stable governing coalition between the Socialist Party, Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine. The new coalition in turn elected Viktor Yanakovych, Viktor Yushchenko's opponent in the 2004 presidential election, as Prime-Minsiter

During the term of Office of Viktor Yanakovych economic growth and stability were restored by the governing coalition but the governement and Parliament was constantly having to defend themselves against ongoing attempts by Ukraine's President to undermine Ukraine's parliamentary democracy.

In April 2006 The president unconstitutionally dismissed the democratically parliament sparking a constitutional and political crisis brought on by a power struggle between the President and the Parliament.

Following a six month stand-off and direct interference by the President in the functioning of Ukraine's constitutional Court in order to prevent the court form ruling the President's dismissal of Ukraine's Parliament as being illegal, agreement was reached to hold fresh early parliamentary elections which were held on September 30. The agreement was contingent on members of the opposition resigning their mandate and by doing so provide "constitutional grounds" for the termination of the parliament. Under Ukraine's constitution the parliament must maintain 2/3rds of its composition by elected representatives in order to remain competent.

The election provided little change and has only made matters worst

Yulia Tymoshenko received 30.7% of the vote, Our Ukraine Peoples Self Defence Party 14.1% (combined total 44.8%). The highest polling Party , Party of Regions 34.4%, Communist Party 5.4% .Bloc Lytvyn 3.9% and the socialist party fell short of the required 3% threshold representation barrier having only obtained 2.9% of the vote,

Block Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine together hold 227 or the 450 members of Parliament. The extent of division and disagreement within the new governing coalition is a recipe for disaster and unless Yulia can seek and obtain the support of the Lytvn bloc will evitable face defeat with the Opposition able to call fresh elections at a time of their choosing in one years time. Except next time it is excepted that the parliament will face early elections along with Ukraine's President.


Saturday, October 06, 2007

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections - Swing Analysis 2006 to 2007

Автономна Республіка Крим2.98%0.38%0.61%3.08%2.52%0.71%





Friday, October 05, 2007

Provisional results: 100% of protocols counted

Interactive Map

Party/Bloc2006Swing2007 Results% Seats# Seats
sum> 3%88.58%100.00%450
No of polling Places33974100.00%
No of Districts226100.00%
No of votes counted23315326100.00%61.99%
Sum Parties2229840695.64%
Against All6372042.73%
BYuT + OU-PSD =228

Publication Date05-Oct-07
Poll Dates from
Poll SourceCECVotes
Party of RegionsPoR34.37%8013918
Yulia Tymoshenko BlocBYuT30.72%7162174
Bloc "Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense"OU-PSD14.16%3301012
Communist Party of UkraineCPU5.39%1257397
Bloc Lytvyna PartyBLP3.97%924568
Socialist Party of UkraineSPU2.87%668185
Progressive Socialist Party of UkrainePSPU1.33%309119
All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom"AUUF0.77%178655
Party of Greens of UkrainePGU0.41%94511
Electoral bloc of Liudmyla SuprunEBLS0.35%80943
Communist Party of Ukraine (renewed)CPU(r)0.29%68606
Party of Free DemocratsPFD0.22%50910
Bloc of Party of Pensioners of UkraineBPPU0.15%34843
Party of National Economic Development of UkrainePNEDU0.14%33490
Ukrainian People's BlocUPB0.12%28414
Peasant's Bloc "Agricultural Ukraine"PBAU0.11%25720
Bloc "Christian's Bloc"BCB0.11%24595
Electoral bloc of political parties "KUCHMA"EBPPK0.10%23668
All-Ukrainian Party of People's TrustAUPPT0.05%12326
Bloc "All-Ukrainian Community" BAUC0.02%5351
Against All2.73%637204
Sum (Participation Rate)100.00%23315325
Percentage of the vote >3%
Party of Regions34.37%
Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc30.72%
Bloc "Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense"14.16%
Communist Party of Ukraine5.39%
Bloc Lytvyna3.97%
Percentage of the Seats
Party of Regions38.8%
Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc34.7%
Bloc "Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense"16.0%
Communist Party of Ukraine6.1%
Bloc Lytvyna4.5%
Parliamentary Seats
Party of Regions175
Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc156
Bloc "Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense"72
Communist Party of Ukraine27
Bloc Lytvyna20
Gov (PoR+CPU) 202
Opp (OUPSD+BYuT)228