Saturday, June 26, 2010

NUNS No More: Causing a Constitutional Quandary

Our Ukraine - Peoples Self Defence (NUNS) to be dissolved following the demise of Yushchenko's leadership.

Ukrainian News has been reporting large number of defections from their Parliamentary representatives to the governing coalition camp prompting a call for the parliamentary faction to be dissolved.

If NUNS does dissolve, as expected, it will raise further concerns about Ukraine's Constitutional 'Imperative mandate' provisions (Article 81) which require members of parliament to remain a member of the parliamentary faction that appointed them. If the faction ceases to exist the provisions of Article 81 also fall.

What impact this could have on the Constitutional validity of the current parliament is uncertain. The Constitutional Court having had a bet each way in its recent past rulings.

Update. National Radio Ukraine is reporting the formal dissolution of the NUNS faction.

This recent announcement could give rise for Yanukovych to call fro fresh parliamentary elections in order to  restore constitutional order.  If fresh elections here held this month Party of Regions would secure an absolute majority in its on right and a constitutional majority in coalition with Sergei Tipiko's Strong Ukraine faction


Friday, June 04, 2010

Shifting fortunes:Tymoshenko moves into third place

A public opinion poll published by Research and Branding shows Yulia Tymoshenko sliding down to third place with Yanukovych remaining preferred President.  100 Days into the term of the new president Yanukovych remains in the lead with 45.5% support followed by Sergie Tipikpko on 13.0% and Tymoshenko with just over 10%. Ex-President Viktor Yushchenko does not even get a mention with all other possible contenders rating less the 5%.

Whilst a majority of Ukrainians are not happy with their life style or the state of the economy most Ukrainians generally support the new government on 45% approval and 40% disapprove, compared to the oppositions ratings of 12.6% approval to just over 70% disapproval.

The prime-minister Mykola Azarov has a 48.4% approval rating against Tymoshenko's 18.8%.

If Parliamentary elections were held this weekend Party of Regions would be elected to office with an absolute majority.

Party/Bloc Percentage Seats
Party of Regions 43.30% 274
Strong Ukraine 12.40% 78
Bloc Tymoshenko 10.50% 66
Front for Change 5.00% 32
Svoboda 1.90%
Communist Party of Ukraine 1.80%
Civil Position 1.60%
Lytvyn Bloc 0.80%
Our Ukraine 0.70%
Other 0.40%
Against All 7.10%
Will not vote 6.60%
Do not know 7.90%
Sum 100.00% 450