Thursday, November 06, 2008

Yushchenko faces rebellion within his own party as the county sinks

Looks like a rebellion is brewing
NUNS (Our Ukraine and Peoples'Self Defence) are having second thoughts about the strategic direction that Yushchenko has taken Ukraine.

Foreign Notes reports

Representatives of six of the nine political forces that form NUNS have responded to President's statements that NUNS deputies do not want to renew the democratic coalition with BYuT, and that parliamentary elections remain the only way out of the crisis.

They declared: "We, the leaders of the majority of the political forces on which the NUNS bloc and fraction is based, are extremely surprised by the president's assertion about "the absence of trust in Yulia Tymoshenko" and about the disinclination of the NUNS fraction to return to the democratic coalition."

They accuse the NUNS leadership of avoiding party meetings because: "the puppet-masters from Bank Street [pres's secretariat] are fearful that at the first sitting of the fraction a decision will be approved to return the fraction to the ranks of the democratic coalition.. We yet again responsibly declare that the coalition of democratic forces in parliament should, and must be renewed in a matter of hours. For this only one thing is required - the wish and political will of the president." The signatories of the declaration "call on the president to cease his motiveless attacks against the government, the PM, and the coalition of democratic forces, particularly today, when the country needs unity to meet the challenges to Ukraine from the world financial crisis."

So...big trouble in the NUNS camp..

Ukrainiana: Yushchenko: Govt Piled Up Debt "Like a Bitch Piles Up Lice"


Saturday, November 01, 2008

Game, set, Match?

Elections unlikely to be held before Spring as Yushchenko falls

There was an interesting news report on the voting of finances for the election. If you have not got the money then you can not hold an election.

It appears that although there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are also not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

The President's faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko's destabilization plan.

There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

The Constitutional "Imperative Mandate" and the will of individual members of parliament

In 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government's proposed constitutional reform which would have enabled Ukraine to adopt a democratic European style Parliamentary system of governance.

This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Faced again with the possibility of Constitutional reform not to his liking Yushchenko had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament "Catch 22" no money, no election

Last year the US stepped in and offered to fund the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko's gamble is certain to back fire on him.

The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend money and limited resources in fighting an election that will not resolve the going crisis of Yushchenko's making.

Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to destabilize Ukraine and it's economy?

Somehow, judging by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and Party of Regions, of course. It does not look like it will happen this year that's for sure.

We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine's economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.