Saturday, November 01, 2008

Game, set, Match?

Elections unlikely to be held before Spring as Yushchenko falls

There was an interesting news report on the voting of finances for the election. If you have not got the money then you can not hold an election.

It appears that although there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are also not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

The President's faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko's destabilization plan.

There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

The Constitutional "Imperative Mandate" and the will of individual members of parliament

In 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government's proposed constitutional reform which would have enabled Ukraine to adopt a democratic European style Parliamentary system of governance.

This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Faced again with the possibility of Constitutional reform not to his liking Yushchenko had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament "Catch 22" no money, no election

Last year the US stepped in and offered to fund the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko's gamble is certain to back fire on him.

The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend money and limited resources in fighting an election that will not resolve the going crisis of Yushchenko's making.

Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to destabilize Ukraine and it's economy?

Somehow, judging by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and Party of Regions, of course. It does not look like it will happen this year that's for sure.

We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine's economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.


Anonymous said...

Yushchenko has no political future and as far as his “duty to the constitution and country” - all he can do here is rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic – you know its all but over when there is a definite vote of no confidence from the people @ 4%, a lack of confidence from your own party and friends such as ex Polish ex president who recently said Yushchenko has shot himself in the foot.

Calling for the elections without a properly thought through strategy amounts to political suicide – and the problems accumulate non surmountably - of funding the elections can’t happen without parliament and without funding he can’t dissolve the parliament – to be or not to be? that is the problem

And a broader coalition with POR will not work either for our troubled president who like the Prince of Denmark is running out of options - Yushchenko and his allied members have no chance of gaining extra seats in VR. Yushchenko is currently around 4% and the OU 1.8% Yatsenuik 2.3% and Chernovetsky < 1%. The pro Yushchenko supporters would in fact gain no new seats but more likely to lose seats! Even if Kirilenko’s 1.8% and Baloga’s <.5% will not save Yushchenko.
These parties look in serious trouble simply passing the 3% umbrella.

Also to align with his long time friend Ahkmetov + POR, Yushchenko would seriously undermine his Orange and Nationalist support base who would see this move as nothing short of treason since the POR support for the Independence of the seperatist states in Georgia, and he would never settle for the role of back seat driver!

Yes like Macbeth Yushchenko has shot himself in the foot and Timoshenko edging ahead with much larger support of the two biggest parties leaving Lytvin the McDuth delivering the death blow.
(apologies to Shakespeare).

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure that Shakespeare would agree with Vic's characterisation of Yush as Macbeth. I suspect he might point out the greater similarity to Bottom.