Ukraine Today - An Independent Political Review

Recent reviews and public opinion polls have Tymoshenko leading over Yanukovych in the primary vote. This comes as no surprise. Yanukovych can thank his mate Yushchenko for this monumental strategic stuff-up. Yushchenko and the government administration helped turn Tymoshenko into a Martyr. Yanukovych's term of office has virtually finished, as he has been overshadowed by the events surrounding Tymoshenko's imprisonment. He has no one else to blame for his own demise other then himself and those who he has taken advice from. No one is listening to any positive statements he has to make and he is one step short of being totally isolated from any meaningful negotiations with the west. I sincerely doubt if he can recover from this diplomatic disaster that has been imposed on Ukraine. Tymoshenko's support was on the decline prior to her arrest, as was pointed out by Taras Chornovil in a recent interview published in the Day. She has become more powerful and influ...

Independent Exit polls conducted by Research and Branding and published in Kyiv Post show Party of Regions ahead in local elections What's interesting to note is that with the exception of Donetsk all other regions the highest polling party did not poll over 50%. The election of Mayor being won by candidates that do not have majority support. This is a major shortfall of the first-past-the-post voting system. A better option would be to introduce preferential "Alternative voting where candidates/parties are ranked in order of preference. If no candidate has 50% or more votes then the candidates with the least votes are excluded and their votes distributed according to the voters order to preface, This process continues until a candidate has 50% or more support.  More information www.fairvote.org The other interesting outcome is that Svoboda have out polled all other parties including Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine in Western Ukraine.  If this was repeated in a ...

A public opinion poll published by Research and Branding shows Yulia Tymoshenko sliding down to third place with Yanukovych remaining preferred President.  100 Days into the term of the new president Yanukovych remains in the lead with 45.5% support followed by Sergie Tipikpko on 13.0% and Tymoshenko with just over 10%. Ex-President Viktor Yushchenko does not even get a mention with all other possible contenders rating less the 5%. Whilst a majority of Ukrainians are not happy with their life style or the state of the economy most Ukrainians generally support the new government on 45% approval and 40% disapprove, compared to the oppositions ratings of 12.6% approval to just over 70% disapproval. The prime-minister Mykola Azarov has a 48.4% approval rating against Tymoshenko's 18.8%. If Parliamentary elections were held this weekend Party of Regions would be elected to office with an absolute majority. Party/Bloc Percentage Seats Party of Regions ...

The latest Public Opinion poll conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) lists Ukraine's former President, Viktor Yushchenko, with less then 1.6% support.  If fresh parliamentary elections were held Yushchenko's Our Ukraine would lose representation in Ukraine's parliament. If the results of the poll were translated into parliamentary seats only five parties representing 64.7% of the electorate would cross the 3% representation threshold.  - Party of Regions would win an absolute majority with 253 seats and a constitutional majority (>300) with the support of  Sergei Tigipko's Strong Ukraine . Yulia Tymoshenko would win only 95 seats, Arsenyi Yatsenyuk 30 and the Communist Party of Ukraine 21 seats. Parliamentary speaker Volodymir Lytvyn would lose representation along with Yushchenko's Our Ukraine . Over 13% of the electorate are undecided. Party Leader Percentage Seats Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych ...

24 hours  after the polls closed the following Obslasts/Districts have not submitted their polling return protocols. (What is the hold up? why does it  take to long to count a few votes ?- its not a difficult task) Region District No Percentage counted Crimea 1 94.44% 3 83.13% 6 90.99% 9 56.41% 10 97.43% Volyn Oblast 19 98.66% Zaporizhia Oblast 77 98.87% Kyiv Oblast 93 98.33% Luhansk Oblast 109 87.05% 110 91.66% Lviv Oblast 120 95.28% Odesa Oblast 141 98.28% 145 97.84% Kherson Oblast 189 90.41% Cherkasy Oblast 203 93.49%

The morning after 6:00AM With Over 80% of protocols recorded Viktor Yanukovych on 48.68% has maintained his lead over Tymoshenko who has 45.67%.  A closer then expected margin of 3%. The number of participants is estimated to be 65%. The Crimean vote (33.62% counted) is still to be included. All other regions have over 67% registered. Its all over but for the declaration of the poll.  Tymoshenko will maintain that that she had been cheated out of office. The reality is she did well to secure as many votes as she had given the extent of competition against her. The outcome of the election will give cause for Yanukovych to think twice before pursuing a fresh parliamentary election.  Yanukovych could not hold on to the 50% psychological victory.  His win is not a triumph but as they say winners are grinner's and he will be sworn into office.  There will be no Maidan or Orange revolution II.  Sure Yulia will scream and continue to try and  undermin...

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:30AM) Over 70% of  protocols counted Yanukoych extending his lead as more voptes from tjhe populous East are registered.  Yanukovych (49.08%) Tymosnenko (45.27%)  Against All (4.49%) Informal (1.15%) Total votes counted. 16,940,350 (46.31%) Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:15AM) Tymoshenko has opicked up some ground in the last hour but this is due to outstadning protocols in Western being submitted later then in teh East.  There is still a lot of Crimra and Luhanst votes to be registered in the East which will see the scales tip back in Yanukovych's favour.  Current split Yanukovych (48.99%) Tymsohenko (45.37%)   Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 3:15AM) With just over 52% of the vote counted the turn-out looks like being lower then in the first round at approximately  60%-62%  Yanukovych has been showing a consistent lead at 49.65% and Tymoshenko on 44.73% A scan of the protocols registered shows that Western U...

 Exit Polls have already called the election not the official results are confirming what we all know.  Yanukovych to be Ukraine's next President.  Yanukovych is expected to exceed the 50% margin with a Comfortable lead. Live results now posted on Virtual Election map Click here to view

Inter Tv is reporting Yanukovych winning by a margin of 5-8%  Which is the margin we have predicted all along.  Official data is expected to start coming in in the next hour. Update: Interfax-Ukraine exit poll: Yanukovych leads among voters in Kyiv, regional capitals Today at 20:32 | Interfax-Ukraine  Kyivpost Victor Yanukovych is leading among voters in regional capitals and the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol, according to an exit poll conducted by Interfax-Ukraine reporters on site at polling stations. According to the poll, Yanukovych received 51% of votes, while Tymoshenko got 41% with 8% votes against both presidential candidates. A total of 3,100 people took part in the poll in 23 regional capitals, and the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol. National Exit Poll: Yanukovych has been elected the next Ukraine’s president Today at 19:56 | Staff reports Kyiv Post   National Exit Poll 2010 found that 48.7 percent of voters chose ...

Angus and Read is reporting a poll undertaken by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute . It shows  Viktor Yanukovych 55.9% Yulia Tymoshenko 40.7% Against all candidates 3.4% Source: Kyiv International Sociology Institute Methodology: Interviews with 2,002 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Jan. 4 to jan. 13, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent. This poll is hard to believe because for one it is missing the informal vote which was recorded at 1.65% not to forget Vasyl Protyvsikh vote (0.16%) in the first round, which often is rolled up into the Against All (2.21%) classification, The Poll also does not include the estimated participation rate which is equally important. Our Analysis of the first round vote indicates that the poll will be much more closer then the 15% gap indicated. For Yanukovych to to increase his vote by 20 percentage points and Tymoshenko only by 15 percentage points would indicate that...

Candidate 99% Counted Viktor Yanukovych 35.38% Yulia Tymoshenko 25.01% Serhiy Tihipko 13.05% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.95% Viktor Yushchenko 5.45% Petro Symonenko 3.55% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.35% Oleh Tyahnybok 1.43% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.20% Inna Bohoslovska 0.41% Oleksandr Moroz 0.38% Yuriy Kostenko 0.22% Liudmyla Suprun 0.19% Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.16% Oleksandr Pabat 0.14% Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.12% Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.60% Oleh Riabokon 0.03% Against all 2.20% If the above vote held in a parliamentary election this would translate into Party Seats PoR 178 BYuT 126 Tigipko 66 Y-Front 35 OU 27 CPU 18 450

At just overt 50.36% of the polling places counted: (11021832 votes) Candidate 50% Counted Viktor Yanukovych 36.75% Yulia Tymoshenko 24.47% Serhiy Tihipko 13.05% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.79% Viktor Yushchenko 4.85% Petro Symonenko 3.67% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.43% Against all 2.23% Oleh Tyahnybok 1.30% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.17% Inna Bohoslovska 0.43% Oleksandr Moroz 0.42% Yuriy Kostenko 0.22% Liudmyla Suprun 0.19% Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.17% Oleksandr Pabat 0.14% Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.13% Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.06% Oleh Riabokon 0.03% Progressive Election Results Click here to view

Click here to view Our Virtual Map is up and running and we hope to update it every 30 minuets. Update: 44.18% counted

The Democratic Initiative a US funded think tank update National Exit Poll data as of 23:00 of the results of voting by the constituents of Ukraine on January 17, 2010: Candidate Democratic Initiative National Exit Poll Viktor Yanukovych 31.3% Yulia Tymoshenko 27.1% Serhiy Tihipko 13.4% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 7.8% Viktor Yushchenko 6.0% Petro Symonenko 2.7% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.4% Oleh Tyahnybok 2.1% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.6% Oleksandr Moroz 0.5% Inna Bohoslovska 0.4% Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.2% Liudmyla Suprun 0.2% Yuriy Kostenko 0.2% Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.1% Oleksandr Pabat 0.1% Oleh Riabokon 0.1% Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.0% Against all 2.8% The National Exit Poll 2010 Consortium is made up of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Oleksandr Raz...

Summary of exit polls Candidate Research & Branding Ukrainian Institute of Social Studies ICTV Savik Shuster Studio Inter TV channel Viktor Yanukovych 37.7% 34.7% 35.0% 34.7% 36.6% Yulia Tymoshenko 26.1% 24.8% 25.7% 25.0% 25.8% Serhiy Tihipko 11.6% 11.5% 13.4% 13.2% 13.5% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 7.9% 8.9% 6.9% 7.1% 6.6% Viktor Yushchenko 5.1% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% 5.2% Petro Symonenko 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0%

Analysis: by Adrian Karatnycky New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis The Atlantic Council, Wash, D.C., Fri, 15 January 2010 NEW YORK - Ukraine votes in the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, January 17th.  Ukraine does not permit the release of polling data in the two weeks prior to the contest.  But I have obtained reliable polling data from colleagues, based on polling conducted last week for internal use by campaign officials, which suggests that Viktor Yanukovych leads incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko by 8 to 10 percent, a narrowing from two weeks ago, when Yanuokvych led by 12 to 15 percent: Candidate Support Viktor Yanukovych 34.00% Yulia Tymoshenko 24.50% Serhiy Tihipko 12.50% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.50% Viktor Yushchenko 5.50% Petro Symonenko 4.00% Volodymyr Lytvyn 3.50% Oleh Tyahnybok 2.00% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.00% ...

Betting on the outcome of the presidential election is a safer bet then a horse race. NO MORE BETS: 8:00AM - Betting has closed as election is in play. UPDATE: 4:10 Kyiv time The betting score is now  Yanukovych 2/5, Tymoshenko 17/10, Tigipko 8, Yushchenko remains on 24 with no change in all other candidates According to the latest betting score  Candidate Bet Score Viktor Yanukovych 5/11 Yulia Tymoshenko 11/17 Serhiy Tigipko 9 Viktor Yushchenko 24 Arseniy Yatsenyuk 49 Volodymyr Lytvyn 99 Petro Symonenko 99 Inna Bogoslovska 299 Oleh Tyahnybok 299 Anatoliy Hrytsenko 299 Others 299 The punters are betting on a Tymoshenko win with Yanukovych offering the best odds for someone who is guaranteed to be in the final round contest.

There is a lot of talk around that this deal or that deal has been made. Whilst deals are possible in seeking political positions or appointments the fact is they can not deliver. Most do not have loyal natural constituencies. They can not direct their supporters to transfer their votes. Tigipko, who is expected to come in third behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, support base will split between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych in the second round. The same with the Communist and to a lessor degree Yatseniuk. Yastensenik can not transfer his support to Yushchenko many would opt to support Tymoshenko is he pulled out at the last minute. Yushchenko himself can not direct his own support base which in the second round is expected to also split down the middle in the second round Example "Split analysis" Using the survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. and a conser...

January 2, is the start of the media blackout in which public opinion polls can not be published before the first round of voting for the presidential election scheduled for January 17, two weeks away. All the polls have been consistent and show that Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko will face off in a second round run-off ballot expected to be held on February 7. The only certainty in the election is that Ukraine's incumbent president Victor Yushchenko will not be reelected to serve a second term.   17 candidates, four from his own party, are running against him. Yushchenko has less then 4% support and is well behind Yanukovych and Tysmoehnko who are in first and second place.  The nearest competitor in third place, Sergei Tigipko, is 10 percentage points behind Tymoshenko. The polls have shown little shift in voters intention over the course of the campaign.   Only the two highest polling candidates can progress to the second round ballot. Much of t...

The latest opinion poll to be published shows no change in the expected outcome of the election. With less than 18 days remaining before the first round election there is little to no chance or expectation that the outcome of the election will change.  According to a survey carried out by the SOCIS Center for Social and Marketing Research Viktor Yanukovych has 31% support. Yulia Tymoshenko remains in second place with 16.7% The next highest candidate Sergiy Tigipko is 9 percentage points behind Tymoshenko who is on 7.9% followed by  Front for Change leader Arseniy Yatseniuk on  5.0% , Incumbent President Viktor Yuschenko is in an unwinnable position with only 4.0% ,  one percentage point ahead of communist party leader  Petro Symonenko who has 3.1%  support and Parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn even less on 2.7% . FOM Ukraine has reported that 88% of Ukrainians disapprove of President Viktor Yuschenko’s performance. Under Ukraine's ...