Ukraine Today - An Independent Political Review

Preliminary Analysis of last Wednesday's Moldovan election highlights some of the issues with the D'Hondt System particularity when it involves a representation threshold. Comparison between the April election and the July election shows a consolidation of votes with fewer minor parties running for election. In April there were 12 parties plus independents. In July only 8 parties contested the election with The Green party being the only new constant. The consolidation of the vote and reduction in the number of disenfranchised voters has a significant effect on the outcome of the election. In April, Four political parties received sufficient votes to cross the 7% representative threshold, together they represented 84.8% of the total vote. The other minor parties collectively represented the balance of 15.2% In July, Five political parties representing 95.8% crossed the new representation threshold of 5% and 4.2% were denied representation - a shift of 11% Statistically in a r

The ruling Communist Party of Moldova, with 98% of the vote counted, is showing a swing of less then 5% down from 49.48% to 44.76% in the re-run election Statistically in any re-run ballot there is a 4% to 6% swing against the government, Moldova is proving no exception. It also raises questions as to the likely result on the second round of Ukraine's 2004 presidential ballot. Viktor Yushchenko, following the re-run presidential election, won 52% of the vote indicating that he had really only won 48% of the second round ballot. Source: alegeri.md Table updated: 4 August 2009 (Final Results) Party % Vote Swing Seats Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova 44.69% -4.79% 48 Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova 16.57% 4.14% 18 Liberal Party 14.68% 1.55% 15 Democratic Party of Moldova 12.54% 9.57% 13 “Moldova Noastra (Our Moldova)” Alliance 7.35% -2.42% 7 Christian Democr

WHAT PRICE IS DEMOCRACY REALLY WORTH? The cost of holding the Presidential election which is scheduled for January 17, 2010 has skyrocketed and is now estimated to cost over 1.5 billion UAH (Aprox. 200 Million US Dollars) according to Ukraine's CEC estimates The previous presidential election in 2004 cost 391 million UAH. The 1.5 Billion UAH only covers the direct costs of two rounds of voting, this does not include the indirect costs associated with the campaign and impact to Ukraine's economy, estimated to add a further 2 Billion UAH to the overall cost With a bill of over 3 Billion UAH, Ukraine must be beginning to seriously question the value of the Presidential election. A cost that can not be readily justified given that there are perfectly acceptable democratic alternatives. The Alternatives. The cost of the Presidential election could be halved if Ukraine adopted a single round Preferential voting system. Under a preferential voting system voters are asked to rank i

On January 23, 2005 Viktor Yushchenko took the oath commencing his five-year term of office. As of today Yushchenko has less then six months remaining of his five-year term. With the passing of this date Yushchenko loses authority to dismiss Ukraine's parliament . Article 90 of Ukraine's Constitution removes the authority of the President to dismiss Ukraine's Parliament within the last six months of the President's term of office. In 2007 Yushchenko dismissed Ukraine's democratically elected parliament and illegally and unconstitutionally interfered in the independence an operation of Ukraine's Constitutional Court in order to prevent the Court from ruling on the constitutionally of his April 2nd decree. Any attempt by the President to dismiss Ukraine's parliament for a second time will be challenged in Ukraine's Constitutional Court and cause a repeat of the political and civil unrest that occurred in 2007. Yushchenko can not afford the political fall

Extraordinary revelations about Ukraine's highest political assignation has dominated Ukraine with the news of the arrest of former General-Lieutenant Oleksiy Pukach, who was detained for his involvement in journalist Gregory Gongadze's murder yesterday. Oleksiy Pukach is reported as having lived in Ukraine since he was put in the wanted list and has avoid capture until now. It is also claimed that he has confessed to his involvement in murder and knows the location of Gongadze's missing decapitated head and has named names of those involved. This is indeed good news for Ukraine if the reports are true and it does deliver justice and brings those involved in Gongadze's assignation to account News of Pukach arrest has been met with scepticism by Gongadze's wife who has been campaigning to have her husbands killers and those who ordered the assignation brought to justice. Gongadze's murder goes right to the top with allegations of involvement of Ukrain

Ukraine's 3% representation barrier has disenfranchised millions of Ukrainians and is not only undemocratic it's unnecessary. Roman Marchenko , ( Kyiv post ) raises a valid concern about Ukraine's electoral system and the barrier to democratic representation. The problem with the 3% barrier is that the votes are discarded and, as correctly pointed out by Roman Marchenko, millions of citizens disenfranchised in the process. The preferred alternative is to create smaller localised electorates with each electorate returning nine members of parliament elected on a 10% quota by a system of preferential proportional representation (Meeks method). With this model there is no need for artificial representation barriers and supporters of minor candidates are not disenfranchised as their vote would be redistributed in order of their nominated preference. 40 (or 50) by 9 member local electorates would provide a good workable representational model whilst maintaining democratic values.

Source: KyivPost A recent poll showing the expected results of a fresh round of parliamentary Elections indicates that Party of Regions with 201 seats would win government with a coalition partner of their choosing. (Min required 225 seats) Block Yulia Tymoshenko, Y-Front, Our Ukraine, the Communists Party and Lytvyn plus one other can all make offers to sit on the cabinet table. With the outcome being a gamblers dream as uncertainty takes hold all players are in with a chance. This could prove to be tempting for Yushchenko as Our Ukraine could form a long awaited alliance with Party of Regions but they will fall short of a constitutional two-thirds Majority unless they are joined by Yatseniuk's "Y-Front" team. A Constitutional majority could also be formed between PoR, BYuT and BVL coalition. Based on the six parties listed this would translate into seats as following Party Vote % Seats Seats % Party of Regions PoR 32.7 201 44.67 Block Yulia Tymoshenko BYuT 14.2 87 19.

Ukraine's embattled President, Viktor Yushchenko, has made a tentative offer to resign in order to facilitate early Presidential elections. His support for holding early Presidential elections is conditional on Ukraine's parliament consenting to simultaneous elections Yushchenko rejected a similar offer to hold simultaneous elections back in 2007 when Yushchenko forcibly dismissed Ukraine's Parliament causing seven months of political and civil unrest. Yushchenko also previously rejected proposals to hold early Presidential elections, which were originally scheduled for October 25, by appealing to Ukraine's Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court upheld his appeal and elections where later rescheduled for January 17, 2010. In order for early Presidential elections to be held Yushchenko would have to resign as President. Yushchenko, who has less then 4% public support , reaffirmed that he will seek re-election knowing that h e will not be re-elected to a secon

Will he or won't he? The Parliament has moved into Summer recession and it's next regular session is scheduled to commence on September 1. Any attempt by Yushchenko to dismiss the Parliament and force another round of parliamentary elections ahead of the Presidential election scheduled for January 17, 2010 would be counter productive. Yushchenko's supporters claim that there are grounds for dismissing the Parliament is highly disputable. On July 24 Victor Yushchenko will be in his last six months of his five year term of office. With the passing of this date Yushchenko will lose authority under Article 90 of Ukraine's constitution to dismiss Ukraine's parliament. If he is to have any chance of success in forcing another round of parliamentary elections he will have to act this week or risk being ruled out of order by Ukraine's Constitutional Court.

Today marks Six Months until Ukraine goes to the polls to elect a new head of state and an end to Viktor Yushchenko's reign of division. It also marks the countdown for the last week in which Yushchenko has the authority to dismiss Ukraine's Parliament. Public opinion polls consistently indicate that Viktor Yanukovych, Yushchenko's rival in the 2004 Presidential elections, is set to win the next Presidential election which is scheduled for January 17, 2010. The most recent public opinion poll conducted by the Social and Political Psychology Institute of the Academy of Psychological Sciences of Ukraine ( Published by The National News Agency of Ukraine ) shows that of the three most likely contenders Yanukovych (Party of Regions)is set to win in all outcomes. Incumbent President, Victor Yushchenko (Our Ukraine), with only 4% of the vote is in an unwinnable position. In spite his low rating Yushchenko continues to insist on running for a second term of office . Yushchenk

Yushchenko, with less then 2% support, still on tack to lose office Source: Kyivpost Head of the Regions Party Viktor Yanukovych and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko still top the presidential election ratings according to a recent poll conducted by the Kyiv XXI Century Center for Political and Economic Studies. Under Ukraine's two round Presidential voting system the two highest polling candidates face off together in a second round of voting. The poll does not indicate which of the two highest candidates (Yanukovych or Tymoshenko) would win the second round ballot. The poll was conducted on July 8-10 this year. Some 2,250 people over 18 were surveyed. The poll's average margin of error is 2.2%. According to the poll, if the election had been held on Sunday this week, respondents would have voted for: Yanukovych (PoR) 20.5% Tymoshenko (BYuT) 17.2% Arseniy Yatseniuk`(Y-Front for change) 4.8% Petro Symonenko (CPU) 2.5%, Volodymyr Lytvyn ( Parliamentary Speaker) 1.8% O

"As Ukraine's economic, social and political crisis sharpens, more and more Ukrainians may question the wisdom of conducting a costly presidential election when the Ukrainian state is almost bankrupt--if not on the brink of collapse." Constitutional Reforms and Political Stability in Ukraine by Dr. Andreas Umland Source: Harvard International Review June, 2009 After several years of impressive economic growth and encouraging political change, Ukraine has recently entered troubled waters. The democracies west of Ukraine are institutionally consolidated and internationally embedded enough to circumscribe the political repercussions of their so far relatively mild economic contractions. While being hit almost as hard as Ukraine by the world financial crisis, Russia has managed to build considerable financial reserves thanks to the enormous cash inflow into her state budget during the years of rocketing energy prices, allowing her to soften the social repercussions of the eco