A recent poll showing the expected results of a fresh round of parliamentary Elections indicates that Party of Regions with 201 seats would win government with a coalition partner of their choosing. (Min required 225 seats)
Block Yulia Tymoshenko, Y-Front, Our Ukraine, the Communists Party and Lytvyn plus one other can all make offers to sit on the cabinet table. With the outcome being a gamblers dream as uncertainty takes hold all players are in with a chance.
This could prove to be tempting for Yushchenko as Our Ukraine could form a long awaited alliance with Party of Regions but they will fall short of a constitutional two-thirds Majority unless they are joined by Yatseniuk's "Y-Front" team. A Constitutional majority could also be formed between PoR, BYuT and BVL coalition.
Based on the six parties listed this would translate into seats as following
|Party||Vote %||Seats||Seats %|
|Party of Regions||PoR||32.7||201||44.67|
|Block Yulia Tymoshenko||BYuT||14.2||87||19.40|
|Yatseniuk Front for Change||Y-Front||12.8||79||17.49|
|Communist Party of Ukraine||CPU||4.3||26||5.87|
|Block Volodymyr Lytvyn||BVL||3.8||24||5.19|
The published poll is missing details of 26.8% of undisclosed votes and which parties are below the 3% threshold.
When analysing poll results it is important to factor in the participation rate.
The participation rate is listed as ranging from 75% to 89%. This means that a party on 2.4% to 2.7% of the vote could also cross the 3% threshold quota .
Note: The graphic below published by Kyiv Post does not reflect the poll results.
Recent poll shows that Six Ukrainian parties, blocs may win early parliamentary electionToday, 16:05 | Interfax-Ukraine
they found it difficult to answer the
question, and 2.6% said they would vote
against all candidates.
According to the service, 32.7% of the respondents said they would support the Party of Regions, 14.2% the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, 12.8% the Arseniy Yatseniuk Bloc, 5.4% the Our Ukraine Party, 4.3% the Communist Party, and 3.8% the Lytvyn Bloc.
Sixteen percent of the respondents said they found it difficult to answer the question, and 2.6% said they would vote against all candidates.
Forty-four percent of the respondents did not support the idea to dismiss the Verkhovna Rada and to hold early presidential elections. A total of 31.4% had the opposite opinion, and 24.5% were unable to answer the question.
A total of 32.6% of the respondents said they would take part in the possible early elections of the Verkhovna Rada, and 29.7% said they are likely to do that.
Meanwhile, 15.7% said they would rather not take part in the ballot, and 11.2% would not do that for sure.