Friday, July 17, 2009

Six months remaining in prolonged Presidential campaign

Today marks Six Months until Ukraine goes to the polls to elect a new head of state and an end to Viktor Yushchenko's reign of division. It also marks the countdown for the last week in which Yushchenko has the authority to dismiss Ukraine's Parliament.

Public opinion polls consistently indicate that Viktor Yanukovych, Yushchenko's rival in the 2004 Presidential elections, is set to win the next Presidential election which is scheduled for January 17, 2010.

The most recent public opinion poll conducted by the Social and Political Psychology Institute of the Academy of Psychological Sciences of Ukraine (Published by The National News Agency of Ukraine) shows that of the three most likely contenders Yanukovych (Party of Regions)is set to win in all outcomes. Incumbent President, Victor Yushchenko (Our Ukraine), with only 4% of the vote is in an unwinnable position.

In spite his low rating Yushchenko continues to insist on running for a second term of office. Yushchenko's nomination taking votes away from other candidates, Arseny Yatseniuk (Y-Front for change) who is placed third six percentage points behind Ukraine's Prime-Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT)

The poll's Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) results are questionable as it shows no transfer of votes from Yulia Tymoshenko supporters to Party of Regions in a head to head between Yanukovych and Yatsenyuk.

Under Ukraine's two round Presidential voting system the two highest polling candidates face off in a second round ballot to determine who will win the Presidential election.

At a direct cost of 100 Million dollars per round, Ukraine's Presidential campaign is expected to cost over 500 million dollars including campaign costs of the various parties. This does not include the indirect costs to Ukraine's economy associated with a prolonged six month Presidential campaign.

Candidate/TCP1st RoundYanukovych %Tymoshenko %Yatsenyuk %
Viktor Yanukovych (PoR)26.743.3 (55.8%)34.3 (44.2%)
Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT)17.6
35.8 (53.1%)31.6 (46.9%)
Arseniy Yatseniuk (Y-Front)11.943.3 (58.5%)
30.7 (41.5%)
Petro Symonenko (CPU)5.3
Volodymyr Lytvyn (BL)4.3
Viktor Yushchenko (OU)4.0

Tymoshenko 9% behind Yanukovych in presidential race

KYIV, July 16 /UKRINFORM/. Oppositional Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych remains the front-runner of the presidential race, with a support of 26.7%, followed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko with 17.6%, and Arseniy Yatseniuk with 11.9%.

These are the results of the public opinion poll conducted by the Social and Political Psychology Institute of the Academy of Psychological Sciences of Ukraine.

The poll demonstrated that 71.9% of the pollees are ready in some or other measure to go to the presidential polls. If the election was held when the poll was conducted, the votes would be distributed as follows: 26.7% for Yanukovych, 17.6% for Tymoshenko, 11.9% for Yatseniuk, 5.3% for Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko, 4.3% for Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, and 4% for the incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko.

Experts say in the course of the past six months, the electorates of all aspirants for the presidency were rather stable. Just the electorate of Yatseniuk had a certain growth tendency.

If Yanukovych and Tymoshenko compete in the run-off, the Regions' leader would have 43.3% of the votes, and the Prime Minister 34.3%. If Tymoshenko and Yatseniuk get to the run-off, the head of government would have 35.8% of the votes, and Yatseniuk 31.6%. If those are Yanukovych and Yatseniuk, they would have 43.3% and 30.7% of the votes, respectively.

2,010 respondents above 18 were polled all across the country June 26 through July 3, 2009.