Ukraine Today - An Independent Political Review

US adoptive parents Robert and Maryann DeSimone, from Huntington, N.Y, have embarked on a mission to find the missing sister of three Ukrainian children they adopted. The children's mother died whilst giving birth to Vera, the missing child. The DeSimone's want to find out what happened to Vera in the hope of putting the family back in touch. We can not help but feel for the DeSimone family who want to keep the family and sisters together, a noble cause. The challenge now is for Ukraine's political elite to help the DeSimone's in their quest for closure.

Yushchenko continues to misuse and abuse his power. Ukraine's embattled President, Viktor Yushchenko, is once again, planning to undermine Ukraine's economic stability in threatening to block supply by rejecting Ukraine's budget. Embarking on a political suicide mission to destroy Ukraine's economic stability, Yushchenko hopes to gain some cheap political advantage in the false hope that  Ukraine's suffering will help Yushchenko resurrect his prospects of securing a second term in office.  Yushchenko's support rating is less then  4% and he is expected to lose in the first round ballot scheduled to be held on January 17, 2010. Many western democracies have removed or seriously limited the Head of State's ability to block supply.

All care no responsibility Ukraine's embattled President, Viktor Yushchenko, having just days before the close of the tender undermined the success of for the sale of the Odesa-Port-Side Chemical Plant now turns around and tries to shift the blame for the implosion on to the government. Yushchenko's aim was to stabilise Ukraine's economy in the lead up to the Presidential election. Having failed to reach its reserve of 2 billion dollars, the chemical plant will be relisted for tender following the Presidential election scheduled for January 17, 2010. With Yushchenko neutralized and out of the way Ukraine's economic recover should be in a more stabilised situation.

National Radio Ukraine reports :   If the presidential elections were held in the end of September, Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko would have had the highest support of the voters, according to the survey conducted by the Ukrainian Democratic Circle at the request of the Institute of Politics. A total of 28.9% of voters ready to back Yanukovych and 20.8% support Tymoshenko. Other politicians have a substantially lower backing of the population. In the runoff election, Yanukovych would get 41% and Tymoshenko 35.1%.

Ukraine will not see a repeat of events that saw mass protests in the streets in 2004 and the eventual election of Viktor Yushchenko to the presidency in an unprecedented and controversial third round ballot. Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's Prime-minister and main candidate for election in January's poll has stated on TV and reported on national radio that “We will not challenge any election returns to avoid tremors, which may bring about instability in this country”. “If the people elect their president, and this is not Yulia Tymoshenko, I will take this choice easy, for sure” Her statement was also backed by Ukraine's former President Leonid Kuchma who has excluded the possibility of a third round ballot. According to the past President, during the election campaign in 2004 a decision about holding the third round was political and it will not be repeated. "The 2004 decision was an exclusion from a rule". This is a clear sign that the presidential elections a

Ukraine president, Viktor Yushchenko has shown signs that his proposed plan to disrupt Ukraine's Presidential election and further destabilize Ukraine's economy may be beginning to lose support. Days after Yushchenko had lodged an appeal in Ukraine's Constitutional Court against the Law on the Presidential election Yushchenko's Constitutional voice, Maryna Stavniychuk, has issued the first sign of backing down . The deputy head of the presidential secretariat stated. " It is obvious that there are no serious political or legal grounds to consider the issue of the possible disruption of the presidential elections in Ukraine" This is a clear indication that Ms Stavniychuk may have been given intel that the Constitutional Court will reject Yushchenko's appeal as not having any substance. The head of the Constitutional Court has stated that the Court will not be considering Yushchenko's appeal as a matter of urgency. It is also likely that Yushchenko ha

Ukraine's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has reported that it will spend 1.27 billion hryvina to hold the next Presidential election at an approximate cost of 36 hryvina per registered voter. By comparison the costs of the 2007 Parliamentary election was 10 hryvina per voter. 36.582 million voters are registered to vote including 390,000 which are located abroad in foreign countries. The CEC has indicted that the electoral roll is of high quality and has been prepared with the assistance of the OSCE. Party of Regions has expressed concern that the number of registered voters in the south east of Ukraine is less then in 2007 whilst the percentage of voters registered in Western Ukraine has increased. Overall there is 400,000 less voters registered now then in 2007. Concern was also expressed about the recent decree of the President that requires regional state administrations to promote Yushchenko's version of admendments to Ukraine's constitution. Party of regio

A recent public opinion poll published in Kyivpost has Yushchenko listed at 7.1% (Significantly greater then all other polls). Yushchenko, who is still in single digits, is behind Yanukovych (21.7%), Tymoshenko (14%) and Yatseniuk (10%) The poll was conducted by the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS). This poll is very much out of sync with all other public opinion polls. If it is to be believed than it shows Yushchenko picking up ground at the expense of Yatseniuk who has dropped to just 10%. Both Yatseniuk and Yushchenko are vying for the same electorate base. Under Ukraine's two-round "first-past-the-post" Presidential voting system Yushchenko would have to out-poll both Yulia Tymoshenko and Yasteniuk to survive the first round of voting. It needs to be mentioned that since 19 November 2000, the National Institute for Strategic Studies has been subordinated to the Office of the President of Ukraine and the Institute's current director, Yuri

Zik.com.ua reports that Viktor Yushchenko is seeking to disrupt the holding of Presidential elections in 2010 in order to cling on to power beyond his five year term of office. Yushchenko whose rating is less then 4% is expected to lose in the first round of voting. First Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Turchinov, a former ally of yushenko and member of bloc Yulia Tymsochenko has stated that " Yushchenko and his associates hope that the elections would be disrupted. This is not only the hope that they will be able to block or veto the adoption of the budget " " Yushchenko is trying to disrupt the elections, not only by blocking the budget, but also by appealing to the Constitutional Court to rule unconstitutional the election law - this is his last hope to remain in office. " Amidst concern that the Constitutional Court will make a ruling not based on law but under the instruction of the president, Turchinov has advised that any decision to derail the electio

In a rather extraordinary and highly questionable action the chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, Andriy Stryzhak, has prejudged the outcome of the President's appeal on the law of Presidential elections. Andriy Stryzhak, in a statement published by the National Radio of Ukraine, has rebuffed calls by Ukraine's legislators for the Constitutional Court to consider its deliberations before the end of September. Further the chairman of the court expressed his opinion that " the election process will not be broken if presidential election law is declared unconstitutional ". Andriy Stryzhak made it clear that the Constitutional Court would not rule on the new law before the end of the month. Instead of mentioning the fact that the new law remains in force until the Constitutional Court rules otherwise, Stryzhak stated that in the event the law is declared unconstitutional the old presidential election law will be in force. He further stated that the Consti

Assuming all goes well Ukraine will go to the polls in four months time to elect a new head of state All opinion polls and political analysts are predicting a contest between Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych. Whilst the official campaign does not start until October 19 all the main players are vying for attention and support. The main certainty in the expected results is that incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko will not be re-elected to a second term of office. Yushchenko's chances of being re-elected to office has been written off by America's former ambassador Steven Pifer and Analyst David Kramer. The overall election is expected to cost over one billion dollars with the administrative cost of holding the ballot budgeted to cost one billion hryivnas. Public opinion polls have consistently shown Viktor Yanukovych in poll position and wining against all comers in a head to head second-round contest. Viktor Yushchenko, who is on 2.6% to 3.5% will lose outright

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko appealed to the Constitutional Court with a proposal to declare unconstitutional certain provisions of the new law "On elections of the President. The grounds cited by the President are weak and should not effect the overall application of the new law. Yushchenko pins much of his hopes in having the law thrown out on the basis of diminished rights of foreign voters. Foreign voters during the 2007 parliamentary election represented less then 0.05%. Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko received 8566 votes, Party of Regions 6939 votes and Our Ukraine-Peoples self defense 6598 votes. The inclusion of these votes is unlikely to effect the overall result of the election which will be decided by Ukraine's 25 million voters. The Constitutional Court can rule against the President or strike out the law in full or in part. Any decision to declare the law invalid would create a constitutional crisis and could jeopardise the holding of Presidential elections

Ukraine's constitutional Court has declared null and void the law on Impeachment of the President. The Constitutional Court found that the Chairman of Parliament failed to properly adhere to the procedures in promulgating the law. The Court did not consider other issues of conformity. Did Lytvyn make a stupid mistake or was it deliberate act of sabotage? The Court cited as a breach of procedure the fact that the law was published on 15 January - the date of its first decision, not the date of its re-enactment on March 3 and no signature of Verkhovna Rada Chairman Volodymyr Lytvyn. A dissenting opinion was registered by Judge Tkachuk who argued that the publication dates did not prevent the law from coming into existence.  It takes an interesting and common sense approach to Ukraine's law. It is unclear if the law needs to be reconsidered by the Parliament or if the speaker of the parliament can correct the omissions made.

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko will launch their presidential election campaign on October 25 with the expected formal endorsement of Yulia Tymoshenko as the parties next Presidential candidate. The official 90 day election period starts on October 19.

Yushchenko advised to abandon the election so as not to disgrace the office of the President Former President (1991-1994 period), Leonid Kravchuk believes it inappropriate participation of President Viktor Yushchenko's candidate for President in 2010. "If the incumbent President (Viktor Yushchenko) dares to take part in the elections and receives only 6.5% of the vote, he would have nowhere to run away, closing his eyes with shame," - he said. Kravchuk explained that he had nothing against the President personally, but he did not want the status of the disgraced President, reported "Ukrainian News". Kravchuk, recalled that when he went to an early presidential election in 1994, he knew he could win but scored 46% of the votes. "It's all the other presidential candidates could afford to collect on a half percent - and current head of state today should not participate in the elections," - said Kravchuk. He added that Yushchenko does not understand

Another one of Yushchenko's star-studded supporters has jumped ship and jumped on board the Yulia express. Lead singer and Euro-vision winner Ruslana Lyzhychko along with a host of Ukrainian tallent has gone on tour in support of Yulia Tymoshenko's push for the Presidency. Ruslana was previously a star candidate and member of the President's Our Ukraine Party

Mig News is reporting a plot to overthrow and remove Yulia Tymoshenkop as Ukraine's Prime-minister with Party of Regions teaming up with Ukraine's President, Viktor Yushenko to oust Tymoshenko as early as next week. The leader of the Communist Party of Ukraine Petro Symonenko hinting that a proposal to dismiss the government will be submitted this week at the Verkhovna Rada. “Politicians are going to make a new constitutional agreement. Yushchenko will sign it together with the so-called majority in the parliament”. The dismissal of the government will not result in a new coalition being formed and as such will force the Parliament to agree to fresh elections The political coup and dismissal of the Prime-minister could lead to the failure of presidential elections in Ukraine and as such prolonging Viktor Yushchenko's term of office, Petro Symonenko claims. “It is an obvious way to the instability in our state” Earlier this month Party of Regions stated that it was not int

Ukraine's embattled Viktor Yushchenko's deputy head of the Presidential Secretariat of Ukraine Maryna Stavniychuk intends to submit her resignation. According to the sources Maryna Stavniychuk had a falling out with Yushchenko's new head of the secretariat, Vera Ulianchenko, relating to the subordination of the main national legal service of the Presidential Secretariat. Raising concerns over Maryna Stavniychuk’s domain of competence and efforts by the head of the President's secretariat to reign in Stavniychuk. Maryna Stavniychuk was Yushchenko's Constitutional voice and representative to Ukraine's Constitutional Court. Stavniychuk's resignation is another blow to Yushchenko's campaign as she was the pivot point for Yushchenko's push for Constitutional reform and the restoration of Presidential dominance over Ukraine. It is unclear if Maryna Stavniychuk's resignation also includes her resignation as Ukraine's representative on the Venice

Former US Ambassador Steven Pifer has written off Viktor Yushchenko's chances of re-election and has nominated three candidates as potential winners with Yulia Tymoshenko fighting it out with Yushchenko's substitute Arseniy Yatsenyuk in a second round ballot against Viktor Yanukovch. The Pifer prediction comes as no surprise as the public opinion polls have been indicating the same with little change for the last three months. This is another blow of confidence for incumbent Viktor Yushchenko who is languishing in the polls at around 2.6 to 3.5%. Pifer who has close associations with the Ukrainian Presidency is sending a clear message that Yushchenko can not win a second term in office. A message that has been echoed by all political analysts yet Yushchenko fails to concede and is set to face defeat in the first round of voting scheduled to take place on January 17, 2010.

Ukraine's Constitutional Court has felt compelled to reissue a statement of concern about "Pressure on the Courts".   The last time they issued such a warning was in 2007 when the Court was under pressure by the President of Ukraine who illegally interfered with the independence and operation of the Constitutional Court in order to prevent the court from ruling against  Yushchenko's  decree dismissing Ukraine's previous Parliament.  - The Court took no action against the President. The Constitutional Court never ruled on the question of constitutionality of the President's April 2, 2007 decree. On September 9, 2009 the Constitutional Court issued the following statement (translation by Google) CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OF UKRAINE In socio-political situation, some politicians, officials perceived ambiguously separate decision by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine: they give different assessments, including critical. Article 34 of the Constitution of Ukrai

Back in June the Venice Commission reviewed a draft legislation on Parliamentary Elections proposed and submitted by the Ukrainian Parliament Committee on State Building and Local Self-Governance . The system proposed in the draft law provides for 450 parliamentarians to be elected under a form of proportional representation that uses territorial election districts, including a foreign territorial election district where ballots are cast by out of country voters. Under the proposed system, most members of parliament will be elected from national lists, with the mathematical possibility for individual political party candidates to be elected within an in-country territorial election district from a territorial list. The proposed model, as commented in the Venice Commission's report , is very convoluted, complex and over engineered. It seeks to reinstate a "hybrid representative model" which is extraordinary and unnecessarily complex in its implementation. Under the prop

Not a day goes by when Ukraine's embattled incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko's chances of being re-elected to a second term of office diminishes. The latest blow to Yushchenko's hopes and desires on the eve of the Presidential campaign comes with the announcement that the leader of the People's Self-Defense Civil Movement, Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, has backed Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's candidature to become Ukraine's next President. Less then two years ago Lutsenko's Peoples' Self-Defence Party joined forces with Our Ukraine to support Yushchenko during the 2007 Parliamentary ballot. Clearly Lutsenko has come to the realisation that Yushchenko is no longer a viable candidate worthy of support. It's game over. The odds are against Yushchenko. With no support beyond his own immediate family and a divided party Yushchenko has no hope of surviving the first round of voting and will undoubtedly also lose his deposit. He should face fac

The new law on the Presidential elections is expected to reduce the number of candidates nominating for the Presidential elections scheduled for January 17, 2010. The most notable change is the requirement for candidates to lodge a deposit of 2.5 Million UAH which is only refunded to the two highest polling candidates that progress to the second round of voting. All other candidates will forfeit their deposit. The higher deposit is expected to make a few "would be candidates" think twice before nominating. According to public opinion polls there are only three candidates that have the possibility of progressing to second round. Viktor Yanukovych, Yulia Tymoshenko and an outside chance Arseniy Yatsenyuk. All other candidates including incumbent President, Viktor Yushchenko, are expected to lose their deposit. There is growing concern that Victor Yushchenko's intended nomination will take votes away from Arseniy Yatsenyuk leaving Viktor Yanukoych and Yulia Tymoshenko as

The Law of Ukraine " On Amendments to certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine regarding Elections of the President of Ukraine " has been offically published and signed into existence following President Viktor Yushenko's refusal to sign the law in fulfillment of his oath and duties as head of state. The new version of the law , reduces the campaign from 120 to 90 days, increases the deposit for registration of candidates from 500 thousand to 2.5 million UAH,Deposits will be refunded to those candidates that progress into a second round ballot. Incumbent president Viktor Yushchenko is currently rated 2.6% in the opinion polls and is expected to lose the election in the first round along with his nomination deposit.

Ukraine's President. Viktor Yushchenko, has vetoed the law on the conduct of referendums claiming that the revised law is unconstitutional. Presidential Secretariat representative Maryna Stavniychuk said that " the law violated the Constitution as it empowers the Verkhovna Rada to schedule all-Ukrainian referendums on the new wording of the Constitution, when the parliament can only schedule referendums on the issues of the Ukrainian territory". The statements by Ms Stavniychuk are not backed up by Ukraine's Constitution. The Constitutional Court of Ukraine has already ruled on the question related to the changes of Ukraine's Constitution, which has been backed up by the Venice Commission's interpretation, that the Constitution of Ukraine requires the consent of two-thirds majority of the parliament. Article 72 "An All-Ukrainian referendum is designated by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine or by the President of Ukraine, in accordance with their authority

In an ongoing attempt to derail the Presidential elections, Ukraine's incumbent President, Viktor Yushchenko, has refused to sign the law on the conduct of the Presidential election. Yushchenko in a published statement has said he will challenge the legislation in Ukraine's Constitutional Court. The President had earlier vetoed the legislation but his veto was overturned by a constitutional 2/3rds majority of the parliament. The new law has limited the term of the official election campaign from 120 days to 90 days and now requires candidates seeking election pay a 500,000 UAH deposit which will only be refunded to those candidates that progress to the second round run-off ballot. The law will now be signed into existence by Ukraine's Parliamentary Speaker. Viktor Yushchenko, who has less then 4% support in the opinion polls, is set to lose the first round of voting and his deposit. Yushchenko's statement published on the official Presidential web site fails to outlin

Viktor Yushchenko, devoid of any real issue of substance in the lead up to the campaign, has embarked on a crusade to make the next Presidential election a referendum on Constitutional reform in support of his proposal to reinstate absolute presidential authority over Ukraine. Whilst Yushchenko spouses the words of democracy his actions and policies are far from being democratic or constitutional. In a desperate attempt to regain relevance Yushchenko wants his version of the constitution to be put to referendum at the next Presidential election in which he hopes to control the agenda. The devil is in the detail and there is no way the Constitution, without wide support, can be properly debated and understood. The time to debate reform has passed and most certainly should not be the main focus of the Presidential campaign. The issues are complicated and require proper consideration as to the alternatives and impacts of the proposed changes. They can not and should not be considered

The cost of gambling with democracy proUA has another insightful article on the cost of the presidential campaign which places the true cost of Ukraine's presidential office way above the 1.5 billion hryvinas budget ed for by Ukraine's Central Electorate Commission. Moldova's Constitutional Parliamentary appointment system is looking good. " According to assessments by political analysts, each presidential candidate will have to spend at least US $150-200mn to promote himself; this includes buying story lines in the media, visual advertising, canvassing, printing political material and, of course, work with electoral commissions "

proUA has published a balanced assessment of the various Presidential campaign organisational structure. It is a little light on Yushchenko's campaign which lacks momentum and support. He is still in the low single digits and will not survive the first round of voting let alone a second round ballot. The proUA article provides a good insight into the problems facing Yatseniuk's failure to gain traction with Yushchenko giving the winning edge to Yanukovych. . Yushchenko's campaign does play a role be it negative in the the outcome. Both Yatseniuk and Yushchenko are battling for the same small segment of voters, each taking away from each other. We suspect that as the campaign progresses one of the other will have to fold in order to not sink each other chances of survival. Its still early days and as they say two weeks is a long time in politics and Ukraine has over 4 months to Election day and seven weeks outstanding to the official campaign period.

Presidential hopeful Arseniy Yatseniuk, leader to the "Front for change", appears to be suffering from an identity crisis, his inability to rise out of the shadow of Viktor Yushchenko. Taras Chornivil, an independent Ukrainian MP from Lviv, in a recent interview with ZIK (well worth reading) said "The West has been trying to measure up Yatseniuk, but its interest in this presidential candidate has rapidly dwindled. It seems to me, he is no longer viewed as a potential election winner. Second, they’ve seen that Yatseniuk is an empty shell, he has no ideas and is a puppet." Yasteniuk who is stuck on around 12-14% in the polls, mainly from disaffected Yushchenko supporters, refers to his newly created political party as a " NGO ". It would appear to Yatseniuk's campaign that by referring to themselves as a NGO they can somehow escape being seen for what they are - a political party. I have never heard of a political party seeking to elect a candidate t