Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Ukraine's new coalition is official

Our Ukraine - Peoples Self Defence agree to the revised coalition

Kyiv Post have reported that the Our Ukraine and People's Self Defence faction have formally decided to re-form a governing coalition with Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko and Bloc Lytvyn to the desperate cries of dissatisfaction from supporters of Ukraine's embattled President Victor Yushchenko.

The decision of the President's faction is a clear sign that Yushchenko's policies of division and undermining of Ukraine's Democratic government have taken their toll. Had Ukraine been forced to another round of Parliamentary elections Our Ukraine, who had slumped in public opinion polls to below 4%, ran the risk of losing representation in the new parliament.

The determination of the faction to support a realignment with Ukraine's governing party promoted the resignation of the leader of the Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense Bloc faction, Viacheslav Kyrylenko, and his deputy Roman Zvarych. Both had played a crucial role in undermining the government's success. Roman Zvarych was the man responsible for the failed negotiations that lead to the collapse of the Orange Revolution Alliance and the decision of the Social Party of Ukraine to form a governing coalition with Party of regions and the Communist party of Ukraine back in 2007

The new alliance which includes bloc Lytvyn, whose leader was elected as Speaker and potential successor to Yushchenko, is widely seen as a serious blow and loss of face for Ukraine's President who has lost all respect. Victor Yushchenko has twice sought to dismiss Ukraine's parliamentary government bring the country close to civil unrest and collapse and in the process he has undermined Ukraine's economic and democratic development.

The people of Ukraine have grown weary of the President's power struggle and his term of office. Yushchenko failed to deliver on the Countries expectation since the 2004 Orange revolution that saw him elected to office. The President's dramatic fall from grace has been tormentuous if not spectacular from a high of 52% in 2004 to a dismal 4% in 2008.

It is unclear as to Yushchenko's next move. Technically he can force though fresh elections but to do so would be a oaramount to treason and rejection of the democratic process. Whilst he had the authority to dismiss the parliament it is doubtful that he can do so now.

There are some that claim Yushchenko is on borrowed time. An agreement has been reached to allow the President to see his term of office out but much of that depends on what actions the president takes.

If he continues his attack on Ukraine's democratic coalition then the agreement may come unstuck. There are reports on the media that Yushchenko will use the budget and threat of blocking supply as his next weapon of attack. If he does this will only exacerbate Ukraine's economic crisis and further undermine public confidence in the Office of the President.

Come next summer the President loses the power and authority to dismiss Ukraine's government. Ukraine will move into the process of election of a new president and it is unlikely that Yushchenko, given his poor performance, will be supported for re-election. Without the support of Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko or Party of Regions Yushchenko's termof President has come to an end.