Ukraine Today - An Independent Political Review

The latest opinion poll to be published shows no change in the expected outcome of the election. With less than 18 days remaining before the first round election there is little to no chance or expectation that the outcome of the election will change.  According to a survey carried out by the SOCIS Center for Social and Marketing Research Viktor Yanukovych has 31% support. Yulia Tymoshenko remains in second place with 16.7% The next highest candidate Sergiy Tigipko is 9 percentage points behind Tymoshenko who is on 7.9% followed by  Front for Change leader Arseniy Yatseniuk on  5.0% , Incumbent President Viktor Yuschenko is in an unwinnable position with only 4.0% ,  one percentage point ahead of communist party leader  Petro Symonenko who has 3.1%  support and Parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn even less on 2.7% . FOM Ukraine has reported that 88% of Ukrainians disapprove of President Viktor Yuschenko’s performance. Under Ukraine's two round first-past-the-post

Presidential hopeful and Chairman the parliament's committee for national security and minister for defense Anatoliy Hrytsenko has proposed that the President of Ukraine be granted absolute authority over the deployment of Ukraine's Armed forces side stepping the requirement for parliamentary consent. Currently Ukraine's constitution requires any decision to deploy Ukrainian troops abroad to be determined by law and the consent of Ukraine's parliament.  The changes proposed by  Hrytsenko are alarming to say the least.   What would have happened in 2008 if Yushchenko has such all encompassing authority? According to recent polls Anatoliy Hrytsenko, a member of Our Ukraine who is running against incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, has less then 1% support.

Interfax is reporting a poll conducted by FOM-Ukraine. The poll shows that there will be a run-off ballot between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko.  More importantly it confirms that incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko, is set to fall off the political tree even though Yuschenko himself thinks he is ripe and fit to make an Orange vodka cocktail but vote-rigging will prevent him from being elected. Yuschenko's support was so low it did not even register in the published list. It would have to be the biggest vote fraud in history if he thinks he can bounce back from less then 3%. Candidate Percentage Yanukovych 28.5% Tymoshenko 14.4% Tigipko 6.0% Yatseniuk 6.0% Symonenko 4.8% Lytvyn 3.2% Others 7.1% Will not vote 5.9% Against All 8.5% Undecided 15.6% sum 100.0% The poll of 1,000 with an estimated error rate of 3.5%

Another week and little change expectations.  The deadline withdrawal from the ballot has expired and ballot papers are being printed in prepared for the big event. January 2 is the last day for public opinion polls to be published. As the campaign moves into it's last phase. The tent will be set-up and the side show of attraction to the man on the street opens its doors. It is a bitter cold winter The Orthodox Christmas is on January 7 and the old New year 7 days following on January 14. and the election day audition three days after that. Viktor Yushchenko is trying to  oust Yatseniuk from running in a desperate attempt to bolster his fledgling support, even thou Yatseniuk has better chance of being elected then  Yushchenko who remains the most despised President in Ukraine's modern history.

Ukraine has four weeks remaining in the first round Presidential campaign. The polls have shown little change in voters support with Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko remaining favorites to progress to the second round run-off ballot. There is concern that the election may still falter as the government has not yet transferred money to the Central Election authority to pay for the election estimated to cost over 100 million dollars with a total campaign cost of over one billion dollars. Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to veto the 2010 budget giving rise to further possible disruption to the elections process. Traditionally Ukraine's Presidential elections are held in October but Viktor Yushchenko was desperate to cling on to office for a long as he could and he forced Ukraine into holding the election in the midst of winter. Ukraine is facing one the coldest winters in recent history with temperatures dropping to blow minus 20 degrees which might see a lower then

Yushchenko is applying the pressure to have Yatseniuk pull out of the presidential race. Even though Yatseniuk has better chances of surviving the election then Yushchenko. Yushchenko yesterday called on the Ukrainian "Democrats" to support a single candidate for president. The Forum of Ukrainian Nationalists has addressed to presidential candidates Oleh Tiahnybok, Yuriy Kostenko and Arseniy Yatseniuk to withdraw their candidates in favor Viktor Yuschenko. Yesterday Yatseniuk stated that he would not withdraw from the race . Nor should he. Yushchenko has a lower support rating then Yatseniuk All the polls say that Yushchenko is not able to win a contest against Yanukovych. Ukrainians no longer trust or respect him. It would make more sense if Yushchenko resigned and offered his support to Yatseniuk. Meanwhile Yulia Tymoshenko is thinking on similar lines "All our democratic candidates, who will participate in the first round if they are so eager to do this…

Not to be outdone by Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's embattled president, Viktor Yushchenko, has indicated that Ukrainian "Democrats" may consider nomination of a single presidential candidate . Exactly who Yushchenko considers to be part of the " Ukrainian democrats "  is not clear let alone what process they will take in deciding to nominate only one candidate. It is a bit late to decide this issue now.  The deadline for nomination withdrawals is December 21.  If candidates withdraw before that date they can get their deposit back after that date they forfeit their 2.5 million deposit. Yushchenko's support rating has slumped to a low 3.5% and a recent survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development lists Yushchenko with the highest negative rating (83%) of all candidates. The report in the media gives rise that Yushchenko, with only 4 weeks remaini

Voters unhappy with choices, want jobs Source: Kyiv post   As the first presidential election in five years approaches on Jan. 17, pollsters and experts warn that voters will be bombarded by a sea of skewed sociological survey results intended to sway their choices. Often, such bogus polls seek to persuade voters that their preferred candidate has no chance of making it into a second-round runoff on Feb. 7, thereby encouraging votes for one of the front-runners. With such spin doctoring at play, Ukrainians need reliable surveys. The graphs and tables show polls conducted on Nov. 21-29 by trusted sources. The surveys were conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. The data are representative of the national population of Ukraine and have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent. All the interviews were conducted in Ukrainian and Russian by the Kyiv International Institute

Research and Branding have published their December poll . This survey was a sample rate of 3,083 respondents with an estimated margin for error of 1.8% Candidate Dec Nov Oct Monthly Swing V. Yanukovich 33.40% 32.40% 31.40% 1.0% Y. Timoshenko 16.60% 16.30% 18.40% 0.3% S.Tigipko 7.40% 4.40% 3.60% 3.0% A. Yatsenyuk 6.70% 6.10% 8.90% 0.6% V. Litvin 4.10% 4.50% 2.30% -0.4% V. Yuschenko 3.80% 3.50% 3.50% 0.3% P. Simonenko 3.40% 3.80% 3.50% -0.4% Others Against All Undecided Will not vote 75.40% 71.00% 71.60% Run-Off Ballot Candidate Dec V. Yanukovich 46.70% Y. Timoshenko 30.00% Against All 13.20% Undeci

There are a group of people, primarily based in the US, that are seeking to silence critics and debate about the events of 2004 and the so called orange revolution. They are the same small group of Yushchenko supporters that are renowned for ganging up on anyone who opposes their political point of view. At first they attacked anyone that questioned the events supporting 2004 but of late they have been out to attack those who were previously considered part of the "gang" comrades in arms. The battle lines have been redrawn and the Yushchenko supporters have turned on supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko in what is shaping up to be a night of the long knives with each group seeking revenge for betrayal and deceit. No doubts once the Presidential election is out of the way disclosure of events past will be pouring out as each team begins a purge from within. The "Orange revolution was a well executed and well planned media campaign event. Sure there were those who stood up for

A recent public opinion poll by the Social Perspective Center for Public and Information technologies one month out from the first round of the election shows little change The only difference in this poll is the lower participation rate estimated at around 60% Both Vivtor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymochenko are expected to progress to the second round ballot with the nearest competitor Sergey Tigipko 14 percentage points behind Tymoshenko The poll was conducted in all regions of Ukraine, Crimea and in the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol on December 1-10, 2009. A total of 2,100 respondents participated in the survey. The poll's margin of error does not exceed 2.3%.Of this intending to cast a vote Candidate Dec V. Yanukovich 31.50% Y. Timoshenko 20.30% S. Tigipko 6.30% A. Yatseniuk 5.90% V. Litvin 5.30% P. Simonenko 4.20% V. Yuschenko 3.20% Others 7.9% Against

Ukraine's presidential election is not a contest but will determine Ukraine's future direction.   In 2004 Ukraine made an important step forward when it adopted amendments to it's constitution.  In doing so it took an important step towards democracy and European integration.   A strong head of state does not equate or necessitate a return to a soviet style presidential system   The proposals put forward by Viktor Yushchenko and supported by the likes of Viktor Medvedchuk would see Ukraine revert back to a Soviet style Presidential autocracy and in doing so would prevent Ukraine from becoming anything other then an associate member of the European Union.   Ukraine needs a head of state who truly values democracy and understand the need and long term benefits of Ukraine embracing a European parliamentary system of governance.   25 out of 27 EU states are governed by a parliamentary system. France and Cyprus being the only two that are not.  France is an establishe

Ukrainian Presidential think tank the "National Institute for Strategic Studies" (NISS) has been accused of rigging public opinion polls to favor their boss incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko In a recent poll undertaken by the NISS the president's agency has claimed that Yushchenko is sitting on 9.5% of the vote which is more than twice what all other polls have been reporting. The total vote allocated to the Yuschhenko's Party "Our Ukraine" candidates is 21.3%  (7% above what the President's party normally achieve). Missing from the published results is the vote for communist party leader Petro Simonenko who normally polls around 4-5%. Candidates % Yanukovych 32.70% Tymoshenko 18.80% Yushchenko 9.50% Yatseniuk 8.50% Tihipko 8.00% Lytvyn 6.00% Tyahnybok 3.90% Hrytsenko 2.10% Moroz 1.60% Kostenko 1.30% others

by Andreas Umland Source OpEdNews : The pro-Ukrainian Free Democratic Party of Germany is becoming a player in the EU's foreign affairs The issue of an EU membership perspective for Ukraine is central to this young democracy's current foreign relations and future domestic development. At least, this is what many members of Kyiv's political and intellectual elite believe – arguably, for good reasons. The prospect of becoming a fully accepted “member of the European family” was, in the opinion of many in both the West and East, important for the political and economic development of Central European as well as Baltic countries in the 1990s. It was a driving force in the quick transition of these post-totalitarian states into more or less liberal democracies today. Ukraine has been lacking this incentive for comprehensive democratization and effective state-building so far. The EU has adopted a position that, depending on who in Brussels and the Union's surrounding

Research and Branding have published the detailed survey results of their 50 days to go poll .  It shows some very interesting data.  Most notably was the candidate's negative rating poll.  Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine;s incumbent President, top the list with 74.6% of respondents rating him negatively. Next came Yulia Tymoshenko at 50.1% Petro Symonenko at 53.7% , Arseniy Yatseniuk at 49.9% and Yanukovych on 41.8% Lytvyn and Yanukovych were the two highest polling candidates in the positive scale. 4.9% said they did not know Tigipko and 1% did not know Yatseniuk. The six month trend graph showed Yanukovych and Tigipko overall picking up support whilst every other candidate remained flat or in decline.