Monday, November 01, 2010

Exit Polls show minority wins

Independent Exit polls conducted by Research and Branding and published in Kyiv Post show Party of Regions ahead in local elections

What's interesting to note is that with the exception of Donetsk all other regions the highest polling party did not poll over 50%. The election of Mayor being won by candidates that do not have majority support. This is a major shortfall of the first-past-the-post voting system.

A better option would be to introduce preferential "Alternative voting where candidates/parties are ranked in order of preference. If no candidate has 50% or more votes then the candidates with the least votes are excluded and their votes distributed according to the voters order to preface, This process continues until a candidate has 50% or more support.  More information

The other interesting outcome is that Svoboda have out polled all other parties including Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine in Western Ukraine.  If this was repeated in a Parliamentary election Sovoda would most likely be represented in Ukraine's Parliament. Lytvyn and Our Ukraine would lose representation and Tymoshenko would be significantly reduced in numbers.

According to an exit poll conducted by Research & Branding Group, the Regions Party received 60.7% of the vote in the election to Donetsk City Council, where it is followed by the Communist Party (with 7.2%), the Strong Ukraine Party (5.6%), the Batkivschyna Party (4.1%), and the Front for Change (4%). Other parties gained less than 3%, and thus will not gain any seats.

In the election to Luhansk City Council, the Regions Party gained 45.2%, the Communist Party 24%, the Strong Ukraine 5%, and the Front for Change (5%).

In the election to Odesa City Council, the Regions Party scored 29.2%, the Front for Change 16%, the Rodina (Motherland) Party 14.1%, the Strong Ukraine Party 10%, the Batkivschyna Party 5.4%, and the Communist Party 3.4%.

In the election to Lviv City Council, the Svoboda All-Ukrainian Association received 34% of the vote, the Front for Change11%, the Regions Party 7.4%, Our Ukraine 6.2%, the Republican Christian Party 5.3%, the UDAR Party 4%, the PORA Party 4%, the Popular Rukh of Ukraine 3.5%.

In the election to Ivano-Frankivsk City Council, the Svoboda All-Ukrainian Association received 31.3% of the vote, the Front for Change 13.6%, the Batkivschyna Party 11.2%, the Regions Party 7%, the Tretia Syla (the Third Force) 6.7%, Our Ukraine 4.2%,and the UDAR Party 4%.

In the election to Ternopil City Council, the Svoboda All-Ukrainian Association won 32.1%, the Regions Party 8.6%, the Front for Change 8%, Our Ukraine 7.4%, the For Ukraine! Party 5.1%, the Batkivschyna Party 4%, and the Ukrainian People's Party 4%.