Saturday, August 02, 2014

Malaysian Airlines MH17. Investigation Analysis (ISRTM)

Chapter 13: Analysis of the traces on the Boeing MH-17: version by type of weapons used.

Author: Yury Belous

August 1, 2014
Translated via Google Translation 
Source: http://isrtm.ru/post/96

Part 1
When analyzing the nature of the lesion is necessary to consider the following factors:
  • The number of holes and openings
  • Size of the holes
  • The direction and shape of the holes, bend the edges of the holes (inside / outside)
  • Smoke surface
The number of holes and openings
The number of holes and the holes relatively small - about 70 pieces. Almost all of them are concentrated in the residues from the cockpit (about 55). 7 more holes located on the parts of the wing and about 10 - to unknown parts plating. Probably, there are also two large holes - one in the center at the bottom, the other on the top right.
Size of the holes
Hole size can be determined from the photo in relation to the other parts. Size of a regular airplane Boeing 777-200 - 380h250. The size of the window is much more Pilot (pictured).
Conventionally, side window can be sized 500x500, greater precision for calculations we do not need. At the bottom of the frame window visible rivets 12, spaced about 4 cm. Smaller part of the holes has a size of 30-40 mm. The remaining openings have an average size of 10-20 mm. There are also very small holes about 1 mm, or even in terms of the smallest particles, which brought down the paint, there are microcraters in metal plating. The diameter of the holes is about 350 mm
The direction and shape of the holes, bend the edges of the holes (inside / outside)
Holes mostly of irregular shape, many holes are fragmentary in nature. Direction mainly bottom-up and back and forth. The hole caused a dent into the skin.
Most of the holes inside the concave, but there are five holes to the outside edges (see photo below). This means that some of the fragments went into the booth behind and flew to the front, breaking through the cabin. This proves that the plane was hit from behind.
Photo: Some traces of destruction turned outwards
Part 2
Details on the wing (part 2) shows that in the lower part of the left wing, closer to the end of the tangent there are traces of destruction in the form of one-way hole. Direction holes back and forth. These traces of defeat confirm the direction of a rear impact in the cockpit.
Smoke surface
Near holes clearly visible soot near two holes. Unspecified item plating also contains traces of the holes on the upper left, where smoke surface is maximized. Thus, this item is likely to be an element of the upper part of the cockpit, adjacent to the part 1.
Part 3
So, today we have a few available photographs, which contain traces of destruction of the aircraft. Pay attention to the pictures of the left wing. Damage traces on it went this way (wedge), which can be seen the direction of impact, which occurred towards the rear cockpit.
Conclusion
Traces of defeat identical standard picture of defeat high-explosive shells.
A typical example of the defeat of high-explosive shells
Warhead missiles by weight does not match the picture of defeat SAM "Buk" (CU 70 kg) because of the small number of holes. In addition, the missile air defense system "Buk" broken in 15-17 meters from the goal, and the cone of submunitions strikes and destroys the target at a huge target area. As you can see on the details of the aircraft, it did not happen. The photo below shows the components of the aircraft, which certainly would be amazed at hit missile air defense system "Buk" in the cockpit.
High-explosive shells could be applied following weapons:
  • Aviapushka GSH-30-1 with cartridges 9-A-4002, with high-explosive incendiary-or high-explosive shells, completed as part of the Su-25;
  • The R-60 "air" - "air" with rod warhead weighing 3 kg 120 mm diameter range up to 10 km with an infrared seeker and a range of up to 5 meters, is completed as part of the Su-25;
  • The R-73 "air" - "air" with rod warhead weighing 8 kg 170 mm in diameter range of 20-40 km, with IR deflectable GOS is completed as part of the Su-27, Su-25T.
  • The R-27 "air" - "air" with rod warhead weighing 39 kg 230 mm diameter range of 50 km with an inertial GOS with radio and heat / semi-active radar homing / passive RGSN, completed as part of the Su-27.
Analysis versions
1 aircraft shot down aviapushkoy
Since the number of traces is relatively small, it follows that affects part of the projectile was not 70 kg as beech, and much smaller. One of the experts expressed the opinion that it was not a missile at all.
Blogger Apolitikus in its заметке http://politikus.ru/events/24997-ustanovlena-traektoriya-rakety-vozduh-vozduh-vypuschennoy-po-malayzyskomu-boingu.html делает sufficiently convincing suggestion that defeat could happen by attacking "air-air" gun installation VPU-17A with a double-barreled 30-mm aviapushkoy GSH-30-2. The diameter of the holes in the observed data corresponds exactly to 30 mm.
The gun can fire the following types of ammunition:
  • High-explosive incendiary projectile OFZ-30
  • High-explosive incendiary tracer OFZT-30
  • Armor-piercing explosive shells BR-30
  • Multielement shell ME-30.
GSH-2-30 - is a two-barrel aircraft gun system Gryazev - Shipunova, caliber 30 mm, designed to equip the Su-25, Su-39 and Mi-24P.
GSH-2-30
GSh-30 aircraft as part of the Su-25
Note that numerous amounts of traces of blood in the cockpit and the number of holes near the cabin indicates a high probability of conducting aimed fire on the pilots for the purpose of instantaneous depressurization of the cabin and eliminate possible voice recording pilots recorders. Probably, this goal has not been achieved - record controllers have not been made public until now, and the story of the "black box" is gradually turning into another "soap opera."
The lamp and the nature trails in the form of a queue talking about strictly directed defeat in the fuel tanks and the cockpit, and the absence of other signs of the wreckage of the plane sharply reduces the probability of hitting the SAM system "Buk" - the number of tracks it would be much more.
Not in favor of the version SAM Beech said the fact that the trace of the launch Beech would have to clearly and long (about 2 minutes) to see the numerous witnesses, and the first interview did not contain any mention of the tracks a rocket fired by Beech. No traces of the rocket body. Bodies of people in the photo do not look well on the affected multiple elements.
It is important to remember that the complex 9K37 "Buk", the following:
• Command Post CP 9S470,
• The system to detect targets SOC 9S18 "Dome"
• Self-propelled launcher mounts JMA 9A310 (originally 9A38)
• Pre-loading the ROM installation 9A39.
All these heavy machines (about 35 tons each, pictured) effectively operate only in a bundle, so the myths about the urgent export Buka in Russia are only for low-grade propaganda. All have long been aware of who and how knocked Boeing 777.
Therefore, sanctions, mobilization, the threat of further NATO enlargement to the east - an attempt to show the strength of an emboldened Russia, ready to reveal the truth.
And what about the Ukrainian Beech in Shahtersk? It seems that he never fired. Most likely, Boeing has shot another plane that after killing the pilots finished off an attack by shooting the fuel tank, so the wings can be seen, and other signs of injury. Eyewitnesses say several explosions, which speaks in favor of this version.
So defeat Boeing may occur in the wings and the cockpit of the aircraft attack the left-rear gun GSH-30 caliber 30 mm. Firing guns is 1500 rounds per minute, the queue length of 150 rounds. For example, could be used cartridges 9-A-4511 with armor-piercing tracer shells designed to destroy lightly armored and easily vulnerable ground, surface and air targets. Weight cartridges - 0.83 kg, shells - 0.39 kg.
Version is really beautiful, but it has several drawbacks:
  • It does not explain the traces of soot in the cockpit. Soot can be fire. Aircraft typically lit so that the flame is in a direction opposite the cockpit:
  •   It does not explain the dent in the cockpit.
  • It does not explain the small holes with a diameter of about 1 mm and the point of the smallest particles, which brought down the paint.
  • It does not explain microcraters in metal plating.
  • She weakly explains the considerable extent of the damage.
  • There was radiolakatsionnoy fixing aircraft at the beginning of the fall speed.
  • She weakly explains how the Su-25 with a working ceiling 5-7 km could make a fight at an altitude of 10 000 meters.
Theoretically, this version still has the right to exist, but its viability is low.
2 aircraft shot down by a missile R-60
As a possible destruction of weapons can be considered R-60 missiles "air" - "air" with rod warhead weighing 3 kg 120 mm diameter range up to 10 km with an infrared seeker and a range of up to 5 m. This missile is completed as part of the Su-25 . Head of the General Staff of the operational explained that "by its characteristics of the Su-25 is able to briefly reach a height of 10 thousand cubic meters." "As part of its standard weapons included missiles" air - air "P-60, capable of capturing and hit targets at a distance of 12 km, and the warranty - at a distance of 5 km," - said the official.
This version of the user leans Ischok site "Global adventure» (www.glav.su):
"As a reserve officer, who served in the defense - will express, comrades shot down his arguments on July 17 Boeing.  
1. No one saw in broad daylight rocket launch "Earth-air". Trace of it goes into the clouds and kept in the air for 10-15 minutes. Rumble such that lays the ears for 10 km. from the launch pad.
2.Mnogochislennye witnesses saw fighter (some say two) near the wreckage of the Boeing falling out of the sky.
3.I landfill personally saw marks on the wreckage of the purposes of the R-60 missiles, beech, C-75, C-125, C-200, C-300. Affirm that the wreckage of the traces of the P-60 "air-to-air."
4.Ni one officer defense will not shmalyat neotstrelyannogo of SAM, as it could end badly. SAM "Buk" For 20 years no one to landfills not drove. Old rocket can not fly stupid, or even explode at the start. Aircraft missiles "air-air" P-60 doing in the Ukraine, so they periodically refresh.
...
The last reason - why not CBO. BMC in the absence of interference productions beats by half rectification, its fragments many times more powerful than the P-60. With this method can not be fragments beg the cockpit on the left and rear in the horizontal plane at an angle of 30g. If the CBO, the fragments would come from below at different angles depending on the position of the aircraft and the launcher "( http://glav.su/forum/4-politics/38-ukraine-Russia-relationships/message/2482627/#msg2482627 ).
However, the destruction of the Malaysian airliner Boeing 777, which crashed in the airspace over the Donbas, missiles "air-air" running attack aircraft Su-25 Air Force of Ukraine, it is unlikely, says chief designer Vladimir Babak stormtrooper ( http://newsru.com/ Russia / 28jul2014 / boeing_su.html ).
He said that the technical characteristics of the Su-25, let him go up to a height of 11-12 kilometers, and ground attack aircraft could reach tier, which flew Boeing (over 10 km). However, the rise to such a height would have risked the safety of pilots, given that Ukrainian pilots before, most likely, had no such experience.
In the photo: the missile R-60 under the wing of the Su-15TM. Air Force Museum of Ukrainian Armed Forces in Vinnitsa.
Designer also stressed that the power of a missile the aircraft is too small to destroy such a large target as a large passenger plane. Also, to open fire on the airliner, attack had "settle" back - but to do so it would be difficult, since Boeing is moving at 100-150 km / h faster attack aircraft, reports the words of the designer of ITAR-TASS. With expert opinion can agree: The Su-25T is usually put two R-60M. At the same time there are cases defeat the F-15 in Lebanon in 1982 (http://skywar.ru/Lebanon.html):
"It was getting into the sealed enemy aircraft. Pilot downed aircraft - to Mr. Ronen Shapiro, managed to hang on to the Ramat David air base and made ​​a landing there. Burned both the engine and the entire tail section was whip shrapnel. However, the plane was restored and operated on. "
The consequences of getting R-60 missiles to South Korea's "Boeing-707" 20th April 1978
In a similar incident, which occurred April 20, 1978, the aircraft "Boeing 707" due to the impact of the R-60 was only damaged and successfully made an emergency landing on Soviet territory. However, you should consider a different type of rocket pilots skill and luck - was not killed off and hydraulic controls.
Note that the incident with the South Korean Boeing 747 plane was hit by a missile R-98 from a distance of 5 km, which is a fragmentation warhead weight of 40 kg. In the P-60 warhead only about 3 kg.
Apparently, it should be stated - we are dealing with a more powerful weapon than cannon GS-30 or R-60 missiles.
The only chance to save a version of the P-60 - it is considered a missile in conjunction with other types of weapons.
3 aircraft shot down by missiles R-73.
The R-73 "air" - "air" with rod warhead weighing 8 kg 170 mm in diameter range of 20-40 km, with IR deflectable GOS is completed as part of the Su-27, Su-25T. This version also has a right to exist. As the user writes the user Observer Online "Such news" ( http://takie.org/news/chem_sbili_malajzijskij_boing/2014-07-18-11565 ):
"Here is a photo fragment plating with holes from the damaging elements. What can I say:
1 This is not getting aircraft cannon shells
2 This is not an internal explosion
3 It does not seem to hit predefined fragments, typical for a large surface-to-air missiles.
Most damages are similar to the ones that leave the so-called rod warhead, which is used in a relatively small rockets - light SAM missiles and air-to-air.
Rod warhead (English. High explosive continuous rod) designed to destroy aircraft. Striking elements are rods of square or circular cross-section. The rods can not be related to each other or connected (welded) alternating upper and lower ends. At undermining they fly away from the direction of the missile, forming a continuous ring connected rods, while non - interrupted with an overlap. Rods "cut" and trim the power range of the aircraft, resulting in an instantaneous destruction of its structure.
Advantages:
  • compactness compared with shrapnel or high-explosive warheads,
  • instantaneous destruction of targets in air.
For example, it is such a warhead is a popular R-73 missile, which the Ukrainian armed fighters MiG-29 and Su-27. In addition to them, such a missile could carry bombers Su-24 and Su-25. The R-73 was carried out on an aircraft factory in Tbilisi.
From land-based SAM rod warhead missiles have 9M37 and 9M333 complex "Strela-10", but their reach to a height of not more than 5 miles away, to get on a plane, flying at an altitude of 10 km, they could not. Rocket complex "Buk" and 9M38 even the newest 9M317 have a fragmentation warhead that leaves a completely different tracks when hit. So this is - not Beech.
Thus, we can quite confidently say that the Malaysian Boeing 777 was shot down by a military plane with the help of the R-73 or equivalent. "
If this version as the foundation, you need to immediately recognize that the Su-25T put Georgia. The site of the manufacturer of Ukraine's interest in the airplane specified, but information about specific transactions no ( http://newsruss.ru/doc/index.php/TAGO ). It is believed that Ukraine does not have Su-25T, but only the Su-25, Su-25M1 and Su-25UBM1. However, one of the Estonian military experts, retired general Roozimyagi sure that at this point it worked Su-25T ( http://rus.delfi.ee/daily/estonia/otstavnoj-general-roozimyagi-o-buke-i-sbitom-boinge-vot-uvidite-rassledovanie-nichego-ne-proyasnit.d?id=69454183 ).
Have this version and cons:
  •   CU is still quite small.
  • Passive infrared homing head, swing. This means that the engine will pass rather than the cockpit.
At the same time, this version can not be ruled out.
4 aircraft shot down by missiles R-27.
The R-27 "air" - "air" with rod warhead weighing 39 kg 230 mm diameter range of 50 km with an inertial GOS with radio and heat / semi-active radar homing / passive RGSN, completed as part of the Su-27.
This version is supported by expert Alexander Luzanov in the article "The defeat of the Boeing 777 air-to-air missile almost proved" ( http://vybor.ua/article/Silovye_struktury/porajenie-boing-777-raketoy-vozduh-vozduh-pochti-dokazano.html ).
Alexander Luzán
First there will be photos from the crash site talk about very much. Purpose struck large enough fragments and struck at a tangent. We have a long incision. Photo: RIA Novosti.
However, such damage is not characteristic of the high-explosive fragmentation warhead complex BEECH. By the way almost all Soviet anti-aircraft missiles of medium and long range are high-explosive fragmentation warhead of the same type design.
Rocket undermined proximity fuse at distances of 20-60 meters, when the goal is surely among the zone of fragments. Area of fragments as follows.
Due to powerful warhead we bystrorasshiryayuschiysya circle fragments with large initial velocities. A high-explosive effect increases their initial velocity. Such fragments hit the target at angles close to the right and left almost round hole. Splinter tangentially possible only on a collision course with the defeat of a supersonic target, when the relative velocity of the rocket and goals are formed and are more than 6 maha. Clearly, this is not the case.  
As an example appropriate to cite the case of the TU-154 was shot down by a Ukrainian missile C200, which has the same type with beech warhead. In the photo we see a large number of round holes.
Quite differently affects rod warhead. As a result of undermining warhead created relatively slowly expanding ring, a relatively small number of large cores, which cuts the fuselage and the plane tangent at the expense of the speed of the rocket. http://rbase.new-factoria.ru/pub/b_ch/oskol_bch.shtml. That's how it looks on the chart:
This requires greater precision missile guidance, and undermining occurs at a distance of a few (3-5) meters from the target, so that the ring was optimal for hitting radius. This missile will destroy an enemy fighter on the ground. But Boeing too large. He will be inflicted deaths, but local damage. And he for some time will be able to continue the flight.'s Characteristics warhead and photo as it looks.
  Reference: Warhead weight is 9 kg, length of the rods - about 600 mm, diameter - 9.4 mm, the diameter of the rod rings - about 5 m. Rods laid on top layer of the GGE 8 cubes weighing 2-3 g
MMA combat units are equipped with air guided missiles R-27R, P-27T, R-73. In the foreign literature rod warhead designated as HECR (High Explosive Continuos Rod). This model adopted MIG 29 and SU 27 Clarify. Means 9 kg of charge. Warhead itself with a layer of rods and GGE rocket P27 weighs 39 kg. Appeared on the network comparison with an AIM-9 Sidewinder is not correct for some than the P27 type warhead.
In general, similar munitions used in the Great Patriotic War. A Soviet anti-aircraft missile. Looks very similar.
Let me add. According to my military specialty battery commander technical anti-missile system. Which is engaged in the maintenance of missiles before they charge in the launcher. The device must know the missiles. True age is already deducted. Yeah, and judging by the photos, the top front edge of the wing. Then the direction of the section clearly indicates that the missile struck the plane and caught behind. So from the territory of Ukraine.'s Appeared analysis of any faults found. Added scheme. First, the rods hit the wing and it broke off, and then all the debris fell into the cab. Because there are visible and outlets. And a fallen Wing explains a left turn, which is shown on the map in my previous article, when there were only data flightradar.
That's 2 more Especially dull pattern with updates. To-air missile exploded a few meters from the edge of the left wing. Ring cores of the wing was cut off. Yellow in the diagram denotes the severed portion of the wing bars. Next rod ring breaks and flies like an ordinary shrapnel, only a narrow beam. And gets into the cab. Perhaps the engine clatter.
Here it was necessary to add an enlarged detail of the cut wing. There is no longer a composite and metal, and it looks like a spoiler. As seen in this fragment, except inturned edges? Visible a long scratch, which is converted into the incision. At the end of the section there are no scratches, because submunitions left inside. Also visible deformation of the metal, which is characteristic for the tangent strike in the direction of the red arrow (metal is crushed in an accordion). In this case, the metal sheet having high stresses in the directions indicated with black arrows, which leads to tearing at the edges. For the expert obviously. It should be obvious for anyone who has studied the resistance of materials. (In the CPI and other Soviet universities "Soprpomat» read all 2-3 course).
More photos and 2 circuits. For photos opponents thanks. Photo taken from the front edge of the wing, conclusively demonstrates the direction of flight of submunitions.

And two schemes pokazavayuschie that in the case of undermining warhead Bucca near the cockpit, you can not hit the damaging elements in the wing. Area of fragments from the warhead beech such. Sorry, but I have this still three years taught. And how to configure radio controlled fuses. There is technology undermining warhead was. Radio controlled fuses emits strongly in the direction of the zone of fragments. As the target enters the zone razleta- receive a response signal from the target and the warhead blasting occurs. "
In my opinion, this version is pretty well explains the picture of the tragedy, while in this case, you must also explain smoke cockpit - the main part of the rocket flew to the cabin, which has received the maximum damage.
Also rejects the version with "Buck" and is contained in the detention center of Voronezh Ukrainian military aviator taken prisoner by the militias, in an exclusive interview to Life News / http://lifenews.ru/news/137181 /:
Nadezhda Savchenko. Photo LifeNews.
"- At a time when you were already here in the Ukraine was hit by a Malaysian" Boeing 777. "How do you think it could make the militia?
- No, I could not. Well, that is, we say that brought down "Buck", but it's just my guess. That is not to comment on it, as some facts I said. This system works with the guidance. And at an altitude of 10 000 meters you will see from the plane just airflow. Ie swirls. That is, some strip. Had to work with the guidance system. Do not go "Buk" one, it's the whole system. Do they have such specialists, they could put there "Book"? Oh. Well, I doubt it, because, first of all, yes, it is necessary to adjust fire. That is it really, even if the person has served once in these troops, and then he took the side of the militia, or something else. This should really be people who have not lost the knack to get. Either they missed! Then it may be "
While the available data do not allow us to form a clear conclusion about the use of weapons. We continue to investigate.

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