The precedence and option for the opposition to force a government to early elections has bee set. Under the terms of Ukraine's constitution if 150 or more members of parliament give up their mandate and the parliamentary factions involved cancels their electoral list then the parliament on longer maintains competency. 30 days following the failure of the parliament to hold a regular session the President will have to hold fresh parliamentary elections. The earliest this can be done now is September/October. In Preparation for a November election.
There is no secret that the President of Ukraine was plotting the downfall of the previous government before it was even elected.
The legality of the president's actions in dismissing the previous stable parliament were never determined in a court of law.
The President interfered with the operation and independence of Ukraine's Constitutional Court on the eve of the Court determination by illegally dismissing three Constitutional court judges. Although the president's actions in dismissing Ukraine Constitutional Court judges was latter over-turned with the courts ruling against the president right to arbitrarily dismiss judges thus compromising the independence of the court in breach of article 149 of Ukraine's constitution, two of the judges later resigned under pressure.
The Constitutional Court to this day still has not ruled on the question of legality of the president dismissal of the fifth convocation of Ukraine's parliament.
Ukraine's current parliamentary ruling coalition, with a slender majority of two, is unstable.
The alliance between Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine is fragile and volatile and within less the one month of the formation of a new government hostiles and ongoing conflicts has pitted the two alliance members off against each other with each party leader signalling, publicly, threats of intimidation and displays of disunity.
The marriage of convenience is on shaky ground and public confidence in the long-term outcome is less assured.
It is only a matter of time, and when the time is right the opposition will act.
Any decision to force fresh parliamentary elections will not take place earlier then can be arranged to hold fresh presidential elections. The opposition only need to bide its time and wait for the right moment.
Unless the governing coalition can secure the support of an additional party its time is limited.
The governing coalition was elected on less then 45% of the popular vote with a Margin of 0.14% support to the socialist party the election outcome would have been more or less the same as the previous parliament with Lytvyn holding the balance of power. Any change in voter support will be at the expense of support for the presidents party
Whilst Yulia Tymoshenko holds the lions share of the governing coalition representation her tenuous hold on power is limited to just the next presidential election. Once that is over her ability to dictate terms will cease to exist.
It is too early to determine if Yushchenko has a chance to be re-elected. His support in the electorate is still low and without Tymoshenko his chances are next to nothing,. Even with Yulia they are still on tender hooks as many people no longer trust Yushchenko.
The other potential outcome is that an agreement and new alliance is made between Party of Regions and Our Ukraine. Such an alliance has always been on the agenda.
It was Our Ukraine's persistent negotiations with Party of Regions, its efforts to undermine Ukraine's parliamentary democracy and its betrayal that caused the collapse of the orange alliance in 2006 followed by the realignment of support by the Socialist Party.
Either way Ukraine is in a more unstable position then it was one year ago. The main cause for political instability then was the president, now its is much more volatile and undetermined.
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p style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 16px" class="lenta-date">News / 5 February 2008 | 16:20
Kyrylenko calls PR to think about its electors
"Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense" faction does not consider topic of early parliamentary elections. OU-PSD faction's leader Vyacheslav Kyrylenko informed today, the ForUm's correspondent informs.
He noted that if Party of Regions is striving to hold early parliamentary elections, let it say openly. "The President will gather all leaders of parliamentary factions and hold consultations concerning parliament dismissal," he said.
Kyrylenko noted that his political force starts preparing for next parliamentary elections next day after announcement of results of previous elections. "That's why we know that democracy is every -day trial. But I want to say that Ukrainian people do not need elections campaigns every month. People need stability," he said.
Kyrylenko considers that opposition can't accept the situation that it does not have power. He called PR to think about its electors but not about own interests.