Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The will of the president

democracy put to the test

Regum has published a opinion piece which I think is correct in part.

Yes, it is too early for fresh parliamentary elections but that does not rule them out. It is only a matter of time. If elections were held next weekend, more the likely the results will be the same as they are now with Our Ukraine and Party of Regions likely to drop in support.

As they say two weeks is a long time in politics. It is still way to early and a lot can change by the time autumn comes let alone the new year.

Strategically Party of Regions will aim for a early 2009 election and they will also need to call for early presidential elections.

As previously stated in this blog the calling of early elections under the provisions of Article 90 (3) is limited. As stated by Kost Bondarenko, "Elections are possible even out of nowhere with far-fetched reasons, as last year has shown. A will of the president is only needed for it. And the president can make unforeseen decisions. In fact, our law is being adjusted to what the president desires.."

Contrary to Bondarenko's assessment, if fresh elections were held the Socialist Party (SPU), who fell short of the 3% representation threshold by only 0.14% in 2007, would be the be a benefactor of fresh elections. Most of Yulia's gain, as stated by Bondarenko, will come from the President's Our Ukraine camp who are losing support. Our Ukraine and Yulia Tymosheko together in 2007 represent less the 45% of the overall vote. If the Socialist party secure representation then the allocation of paraliametary seats will change and the new governing coalition would have to represent 50% or more of the popular vote.

Rather the relying on Article 90 (3),Party of Regions must bide its time and work on exploiting the divisions that exist within the coalition's marriage of convenience. They must secure a vote of no-confidence in the current government or executive.

Failing that the risk of an early election could rebound against them. Their strategy must be one that includes the holding of simultaneous Presidential and Parliament elections.


Opinion: Only Timoshenko would gain profit from early elections in Ukraine
Source Regum.ru

Opinion: Only Timoshenko would gain profit from early elections in Ukraine
Read it in Russian

Yulia Timoshenko, the prime minister of Ukraine, can expand her influence, if early parliamentary elections are held. Kost Bondarenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, expressed such opinion on February 11 at a session of The Ukrainian Club in Kiev, reports a REGNUM correspondent.

“I don’t see any political force for which early parliamentary elections would be favorable, except for, probably, Yulia Timoshenko's Block. The Regions Partyis now suffering fromsinking ratings, even in Donetsk Region. Besides, there is no solidity inside the Regions Party and no common vision of how to develop further. Our Ukraine will lose even more votes — ratings of the president and his political force have not improved lately. And small political forces can only confirm the results of 2007,” believes Bondarenko. However, he doubts that Yulia Timoshenko will risk her post and allow break-up of the coalition to go on another election campaign. “She said that the political force which would lead to a collapse of the present parliament would lose,” the political analyst said.

“Elections are possible even out of nowhere with far-fetched reasons, as last year has shown. A will of the president is only needed for it. And the president can make unforeseen decisions. In fact, our law is being adjusted to what the president desires, but not on the contrary,” the expert summarized, adding that blocking of the parliamentary rostrum within 30 days can become a tool for dissolving the Ukrainian parliament.

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