Friday, July 06, 2007

Fresh Poll published by UNIAN with results not adding up.

UNIAN has published a poll by the "T.G.Shevchenko" Institute for Political and Social Studies

The published poll data indicates

PoR 26.3%
BYut 22.7%
PSD 20.1%
OU 10.2%
CPU 3.1%
PSPU 2.1%

Others 1.4%
None 5.1%
Unknown 13.4%

Participation rate 99.3%

Non-Vote 9.7%

Total Poll 110%

Something is definitely wrong with the published results.

How can People's Self-Defence (in less then a week) come from 4% to over 20%?

If this is true then Yulia Tymoshenko has lost the right to become PM. It could just be a mistake in the publication.

Maybe the combined vote of Our Ukraine and PSD would be 20% (At best) and even then it is debatable.

The poll shows a 9% drop in the Party of Regions vote whilst Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine remain the same. (statistically this does not happen)

It is unknown at what percentage they put Moroz and the Socialist (1.8 to 2.8%) or Lytvyn Party (1.4 to 2.6%) ? (Note Lytvyn has indicated that he will not be contesting the September poll)

If the poll data is to be believed then what is interesting is the reported consolidation of the vote, with less then 1.5% combined voting for minor parties (including the SPU), down from 23% in March 2006, is very hard to believe. We will not be including the results of this poll in the consolidated pregressive poll data until further information and clarification of the poll results is made available. A blight on UNIAN record.

We found this interesting article, published by the Kyiv Weekly in 2006, on Public Opoinon Polls in Ukraine.

6 parties and blocs would enter the parliament – poll

Should the election to the Verkhovna Rada take place the nearest Sunday, 6 parties and blocs would enter the Verkhovna Rada: the Party of Regions, Our Ukraine, the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, the Communist Party, the People’s Self-Defense (if it ran separately for the parliament), and the Progressive Socialist Party.

These are the results of a poll, publicized at a press conference in UNIAN today by Volodymyr Bondarenko, chief of the board of directors of the Institute for Political and Social Studies named after T.G.Shevchenko.

According to him, the poll was carried out by the Institute during June 25 – July 1, 2007.

Some 26/3% of those polled would vote for the Party of Regions, some 22.7% - for BYuT, some 20.1% - for People’s Self-Defense of Yuri Lutsenko, some 10.2% - Our Ukraine, some 3.1% - for CPU, and some 2.1% - PSPU.

At the same time, some 1.4^ of those polled would vote for another parties, some 5.1% spoke against all, some 13.4% have not made up their minds, and some 9.79% said they will not take part in the election.

In the course of the poll, 2 thousand 27 people were interviewed in all the regions of Ukraine.

The error margin does not exceed 2.4%.

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