Sunday, June 07, 2009

Oligarchs 2 Ukraine 0. Democratic reform and a chance for stability denied.

Ukraine's fractured political forces have failed to reach agreement on the details and form of Constitutional reform and the formation of a broad coalition of stability

Changes that offered Ukraine hope for unity and a chance to put an end to the destructive and divisive authoritarian Presidential system and adoption of a truly democratic European system of governance

The politics of betrayal and power have left Ukraine divided, with little prospect of ending the bitter divisions that have embroil Ukraine over the last five years.

Ukraine's prime-minister Yulia Tymoshenko today announced the failure of political parties to reach agreement for reform on National Television.

The details of disagreement are just beginning to surface and each party is now engaged in the blame game.

Block Yulia Tymoshenko rightly rejected the proposal to extend the term of office of the current parliament . Party of Regions opportunistically has come out and rejected the proposal to appoint Ukraine's head of state by a constitutional parliamentary majority . A proposal that was worthy of consideration and adoption.

Other points of disagreement included the proposal put forward by Party of Regions to include an 50 year`minimum age limitation on entitlement to hold the position of Ukraine's head of state. A proposal that has little merit or justification and can only been seen as a cynical move to limit potential candidates for public office.

Ukraine will now embark on an expensive and counter productive Presidential election, expected to be held sometime in January 2010. A prolonged and debilitating presidential election campaign will have a negative impact on Ukraine and its ability to weather the global economic crisis.

Ukraine's immediate future is uncertain. Without change the divisions and instability will continue.

Each party and political force have been forced to retreat to their bunkers in order to prepare for the next political crisis and conflict.

Victor Yanukovych has come out of the crisis of confidence as the favourite to win Ukraine's next Presidential election. His position has been strengthened by the announcement that Ukraine's incumbent president, Victor Yushchenko, will contest the next Presidential election.

Yushchenko, whose support base has collapsed with Polls indicating he has less then 3% support, is in an unwinnable position. His nomination for a second term of office will take away votes from those aligned to his own cause leaving Yanukovych's opposition divided and depleted

Without constitutional reform and the adoption parliamentary model of governance there is little hope that the forthcoming presidential elections will create stability. Ukraine's political future is uncertain as is the stability of the region.

Those opposed to Party of Region's politics will soon find cause to regret their actions. Instead of uniting Ukraine and embracing democratic reform they are more comfortable with division, instability and ongoing conflict


Hamfisted Ape said...

What about Svoboda? Are they still a 'spoiler'? How do they compare to communist vote?

Ukrtoday said...

All minor parties/candidates play the roll of a spoiler candidate. This is the down side of Ukraine's two round Presidential voting system where only the two highest polling candidates progress to the second round of voting.

There are at present only three main contenders. Yatsenuik on 14%, Yulia Tymoshenko on 16% and Yanukovych on 28%

Yanukovych is more or less assured to be included in the second round of voting. The real contest is between Yualia Tymoshenko and Yatseniuk.

Svoboda's support base is limited to Western Ukraine and is not enough to become a serious challenger. Under the two round voting system every vote Svoboda and Yushchenko secures is a vote wasted, one less vote for Yatseniuk or Yulia.

Ukraine would be better off if they adopted a single round preferential voting system. One round at half the cost and the same outcome. Results known in days as opposed to months.

Yushchenko, when if visits Australia next week should take time to look more closely at Australia's preferential voting system. A system that has many benefits to offer Ukraine. Not the least the fact that it will save over 100 million dollars in direct costs and provide a higher degree of stability in the process.