Tuesday, March 02, 2010

The split is on: Our Ukraine abandon governing coalition

Our Ukraine along with Bloc Lytyn have once again proved that they are not trustworthy coalition partners and that they will gravitate to the powers that be  The stage has been set for a vote of no confidence in the government on March 3, 2010. If a motion is passed then the fuse will be lite and the countdown will begin. Ukraine's parliament will have on month in which to decide will they face the people of Ukraine and hold a fresh round, the third in as four years, of parliamentary elections.

Yanukovych's ultimatum "form a new government or face elections"

Under the provisions of Ukraine's Constitution (Article 83) a governing coalition must be formed with the support of factions (not individuals) representing a majority of members of Parliament within 30 days and they will 60 days to form a new cabinet.  With the passing of a vote of no coincidence the existing cabinet will be deemed to have resigned but they are entitled to remain in office until a new government is appointed and approved by the President of Ukraine.  Viktor Yanukovych is not obliged to dismiss Ukraine's Parliament once the expiration date for the trigger has elapsed but he in the passing of these dates the President will have considerable greater authority to apply pressure on the existing parliamentary to support a new governing coalition with party of Regions.

If fresh Parliamentary elections were held during the first round of presidential elections Sergei Tigipko would hold the balance of power.  Bloc Lytvyn would lose representation and Our Ukraine-Peoples' Self Defense would no longer exist with Our Ukraine is fracturing into two or more parts.  Arseniy Yatsenyuk would lead the forth highest political faction. Peoples Self defense have already declared that they will move into opposition with Bloc Tymoshenko should Party of Regions move into government.

The threat of a new parliamentary election is a strong incentive for Lytvyn to go with the flow, what ever direction pressure  is applied. All indications are he will do just that. Lytvyn will vote to support a new governing coalition.  The problem being that once a vote of no confidence is passed there is no turning back, the horse trading will be on on in all seriousness.

Much will depend on how the our Ukraine-Peoples' Self Defense faction as a whole will vote.  They are not a united faction and a majority of its members will have to decide who to support Tymoshenko or Party of Regions.

The formation of a new government might buy more time but the inevitable need to hold fresh elections will eventually win out. Our Ukraine will begin to lose public support and a large percentage of their support base will gravitate to Tymoshenko who will then be in opposition. Eventually Our Ukraine and party of regions will fall out and an impasse on policy and direction will see Our Ukraine once again take an opposing point of view.  Party of Regions will have noting to fear from fresh elections, the main losers will be Lytvn and Our Ukraine.

Waiting in the wings of course is Sergei Tigipko who if elections are held sooner than then later will be main benefactor and who will most likely hold the balance of power and be in a position to decide who will be in government.  Party of Regions will consider Tikipko a more stable coalition partner something that both Party of Regions and Tigipko can play off in a parliamentary campaign.

Bloc Tymoshenko, assuming it will remain united faced with moving into opposition, can also decide to force parliamentary elections should Our Ukraine support a coalition with Party of Regions.  Bloc Tymoshenko, as they did in 2007, can resign their mandate and cancel their election list at a time of their choosing. But this also has some risk s as it also work against them as Ukraine begins to tire of the constant political round Robbin of elections.  Tymoshenko would become the focus of voter resentment but so too could Party of regions and all other political parties except Tigipko and Yanteniuk.

Party of regions holds all the trump cards the only thing missing is a constitutional majority.  The President of Ukraine still holds considerable power, the power of veto, the right to make presidential declarations and authority to dismiss Ukraine's Parliament should it be deemed necessary,

A third alternative, but more remote, is the formation of a constitutional majority coalition between Bloc Tymoshenko and Party of  Regions.  If Bloc Tymoschenko and Party of Regions  were able to return to the negotiating table and form a governing coalition of unity then  opportunity could exist to reform Ukraine's Constitution and system of governance.  Ukraine could become a full parliamentary system of governance. This is unlikely to happen now that Yanukovych has been elected President, Party of Regions let alone Yanukovych will not give up power no that they have won it - even if it is in Ukraine's best long term interest.

As long as Ukraine remains divided it will sadly continue to ride the roller-coaster of political instability and power struggle between the office of the president and the people's parliamentary representatives.

1 Comment:

Andriy said...

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