Thursday, March 04, 2010

What a difference a day makes: Government dismissed and starts clock ticking

Ukraine's Parliament has passed a vote of no confidence in the government, effectively dismissing the Tymoshenko government.  Allegations have been made that seven members of Tymoshenko's faction were bribed to support the no confidence motion effectively signing their political resignation as Bloc Tymoshenko moves to have the expelled from the faction.

The Parliament has set a course heading towards fresh Parliamentary elections.  Under the terms of Ukraine's Constitution the parliament has one month to form a new governing coalition and 60 days to appoint a new cabinet.  If it fails to do so within the time line set President Yanukovych will have the.option of dismissing the parliament and calling fresh election.

Faced with the real possibility of losing representation is a strong incentive for the current parliament to try and form a new alliance.  President Yanukovych has urged the parliament to way up its options and form a new coalition without delay.  There is an expectation that a new coalition will be in place within days.

If fresh elections were held during the first round of the Presidential elections Bloc Lyon and Our Ukraine along with all  other parties would lose representation. Lytvyn would not pass the 3% representation threshold.  The only winner will be Sergei Tigipko would would hold the balance of power in a new parliament.

The question that is still to be answered is who will be part of the new coalition and under what conditions will it exist.  Under Ukraine's constitution a governing coalition is formed by factions not individuals that together represent 50% or more of the members of parliament.  that means that any coalition must include either Our Ukraine=-People's Self Defence or bloc Tymohsenko as either one holds the balance of power in the current parliament.

If an alliance is made between Our Ukraine-Polls Self Defence and Party of Regions then the new coalition will be just as fragile as the previous coalition, the main difference is that Yanukovych hold the Key trump card and unlike his predecessor Viktor Yushchenko he will not seek to undermine a coalition that encompasses his own party.  A Our Ukraine -People self Defence (Also known as NUNS) and Party of Regions coalition will most likely also include Bloc Lytvn so as to balance out the renegade NUNS members.

 Without the support of Bloc Tymoshenko a new coalition will not have power to amend Ukraine's Constitution.  A coalition between Party of Regions and bloc Tymoshenko would be the strongest but is unlikely to be formed given the recent events leading up to and following the Presidential elections.  It is also highly unlikely that Tymoshenko would be restored to the PM's post.

In what is a ill-fated twist of faith the Tymoshenko government has produced reasonable economic management over the course of the Global Financial crisis according to recent economic data published last week.  But politics is not about facts but more about personalities and public perception.

Tymoshenko is not yet ruled out.  Her standing and results in the Presidential election, falling 3.5% short of wining were never the less impressive.  If Our Ukraine do diced to support a new coalition then Tymoshenko's  standing can expect to increase as disillusioned Our Ukraine supporters abandon ship.

The parliament may yet face early election.  Tymoshenko will have the power to once again force fresh Parliamentary elections at a date of her choosing by resigning her mandate,  She can use the same arguments that Yushchenko applied when he dismissed the parliament back in 2007.

1 Comment:

New Car Deals said...

It is very common in world. There is so many instances that parliament collapsed for the many reasons before complete the terms.