Sunday, December 04, 2011

Party of Regions set to win Majority following new electoral laws

The reintroduction of MMP single member electorates and changes to the representation threshold will see Party of Regions win a majority of seats in the new parliament.

Based on analysis of the 2010 Presidential District vote and the 5% representation threshold.

Party of Regions with the support of Sergei Tigipko's 'Strong Ukraine' is expected to win 120 Single member 'first-past-the-post' electorates plus 127 'Party list' national votes

Party Seats Vote% Seats%
PoR 93 35.33% 41.15%
BYuT 66 25.05% 29.18%
SU 34 13.06% 15.21%
Y-Front 18 6.96% 8.11%
YOU 14 5.46% 6.36%
An estimated 25% of voters who support minor parties are likely to be disenfranchised. Armed with the fact the minor party vote will be wasted this will most likely bolstering further the number of seats likely to be won by Party of Regions and Strong Ukraine.

The number of Party of Regions (PoR) Party list seats are expected to increase as Yushchenko's Our Ukraine (YOU) are expected to fall below the new 5% representation threshold.  Our Ukraine will be encouraged to run in all crucial 'Swing seats' to reduce the support for  Yatseniuk's Front (Y-Front) and Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT). In exchange for their support Party of Regions will booster  Our Ukraine's chances of winning BYuT marginal seats in the Western Ukraine region, many of which are held by less than 38% support.

Much will depend on what arrangements and agreement can be reach between opposition parties.  Those parties that do not stand candidates in the local single member seats run the risk of lowing their national vote and as such their parliamentary representation.  This in turn will further bolster Party of Regions seat allocation.

The biggest losers of the new rules will be Block Lytvyn, unless they are accommodated by deals and potential mergers with party of Regions. (See deals offered to Yushchenko's Our Ukraine below)

The Communist Party  is expected to fall below the 5% threshold. (They will have to secure support from other left forces in order to survive and stay above 5%)

Yushchenko's Our Ukraine, who have lost public support since the 2010 Presidential elections,  are likely to lose Party List national representation  but they could pickup some single members seats in a pay-back deal for lowering BYuT's local representation in crucial swing seats.  This is made possible by the fact that in a three cornered contest most of Tymoshenko's votes fall below 38% .

Party of Regions will sail close to the wind to winning absolute control of the new parliament with an outside chance of securing a constitutional majority of 300 in coalition  with less than 45% of the overall vote.

For a breakdown of  District votes and swing seats see previous post.