Swing Seats: Presidential District Vote
The table below shows the running results of the district vote for the 1st and 2nd rounds 2010 Presidential vote.
It is useful in analyzing the possible outcome of the 225 district single member first-past-the-post' electorates.
Any percentage above 50% means the party is under represented, those with less than 50% are over represented. A comparison to the 2nd Round vote shows the winner of the district vote had there been only two candidates Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) or Party of Regions (PoR) running.
The 1st round results show it is possible to win a district vote , under a first-past-the-post voting system where the highest vote wins the seat, with less than 30% of the vote.
There are 86 districts that show 50% or more support and a staggering 140 seats (includes the foreign mission vote as the 226 seat) that are determined by less than an absolute majority. Five seats swung from BYuT to PoR or visa-versa between the first round and second round vote.
Summary of 1st round
PoR 118
* SU 2
BYuT 100
* OU 6
* All below 50% ranging from 30.5% to 39.6%
ЗВО is Foreign Seats. Values shown in Green indicate a winning margin of less than 10% or the winning margin is less than 34%.
Normally a margin of less than 4% to 6% is considered a possible swing seat. Any seat that is less than 34% to 38% is also open to change by tactical candidate nominations.
Under a "first-past-the-post" voting system the aim is to try and split, thus lower. your opponents vote. This is done by running candidates that will take votes away from the party you do not want to win. For example Party of Regions could decide to not run candidates in some Western Ukraine seats which would give "Our Ukraine" candidates a better chance of winning against a BYuT candidate.
There are few PoR seats (5) that are open to a marginal attack but there are twice to three times BYuT seats that are marginal and vulnerable to tactical voting.
It is useful in analyzing the possible outcome of the 225 district single member first-past-the-post' electorates.
Any percentage above 50% means the party is under represented, those with less than 50% are over represented. A comparison to the 2nd Round vote shows the winner of the district vote had there been only two candidates Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) or Party of Regions (PoR) running.
The 1st round results show it is possible to win a district vote , under a first-past-the-post voting system where the highest vote wins the seat, with less than 30% of the vote.
There are 86 districts that show 50% or more support and a staggering 140 seats (includes the foreign mission vote as the 226 seat) that are determined by less than an absolute majority. Five seats swung from BYuT to PoR or visa-versa between the first round and second round vote.
Summary of 1st round
PoR 118
* SU 2
BYuT 100
* OU 6
* All below 50% ranging from 30.5% to 39.6%
ЗВО is Foreign Seats. Values shown in Green indicate a winning margin of less than 10% or the winning margin is less than 34%.
Normally a margin of less than 4% to 6% is considered a possible swing seat. Any seat that is less than 34% to 38% is also open to change by tactical candidate nominations.
Under a "first-past-the-post" voting system the aim is to try and split, thus lower. your opponents vote. This is done by running candidates that will take votes away from the party you do not want to win. For example Party of Regions could decide to not run candidates in some Western Ukraine seats which would give "Our Ukraine" candidates a better chance of winning against a BYuT candidate.
There are few PoR seats (5) that are open to a marginal attack but there are twice to three times BYuT seats that are marginal and vulnerable to tactical voting.
| ID | District | Party | Vote% | Party2 | Vote2% |
| 120 | №56 (Днц) | PoR | 85.79% | PoR | 96.04% |
| 119 | №53 (Днц) | PoR | 83.31% | PoR | 95.30% |
| 118 | №52 (Днц) | PoR | 83.24% | PoR | 95.25% |
| 117 | №54 (Днц) | PoR | 82.23% | PoR | 95.87% |
| 116 | №57 (Днц) | PoR | 81.43% | PoR | 94.36% |
| 115 | №46 (Днц) | PoR | 80.93% | PoR | 93.43% |
| 114 | №111 (Лг) | PoR | 80.78% | PoR | 94.86% |
| 113 | №62 (Днц) | PoR | 80.45% | PoR | 94.95% |
| 112 | №55 (Днц) | PoR | 79.88% | PoR | 95.25% |
| 111 | №41 (Днц) | PoR | 79.31% | PoR | 94.13% |
| 110 | №110 (Лг) | PoR | 79.13% | PoR | 94.13% |
| 109 | №51 (Днц) | PoR | 78.97% | PoR | 94.38% |
| 108 | №44 (Днц) | PoR | 78.72% | PoR | 93.27% |
| 107 | №47 (Днц) | PoR | 78.17% | PoR | 92.81% |
| 106 | №61 (Днц) | PoR | 77.63% | PoR | 92.95% |
| 105 | №116 (Лг) | PoR | 77.47% | PoR | 93.81% |
| 104 | №49 (Днц) | PoR | 77.40% | PoR | 92.43% |
| 103 | №109 (Лг) | PoR | 76.43% | PoR | 93.28% |
| 102 | №43 (Днц) | PoR | 76.42% | PoR | 92.82% |
| 101 | №60 (Днц) | PoR | 75.68% | PoR | 91.57% |
| 100 | №45 (Днц) | PoR | 75.55% | PoR | 92.54% |
| 99 | №58 (Днц) | PoR | 75.07% | PoR | 92.85% |
| 98 | №50 (Днц) | PoR | 74.69% | PoR | 92.72% |
| 97 | №113 (Лг) | PoR | 74.25% | PoR | 91.95% |
| 96 | №107 (Лг) | PoR | 74.04% | PoR | 91.99% |
| 95 | №112 (Лг) | PoR | 73.28% | PoR | 91.81% |
| 94 | №48 (Днц) | PoR | 72.95% | PoR | 90.04% |
| 93 | №144 (Од) | PoR | 72.80% | PoR | 89.97% |
| 92 | №59 (Днц) | PoR | 71.90% | PoR | 91.12% |
| 91 | №114 (Лг) | PoR | 71.46% | PoR | 90.90% |
| 90 | №5 (АРК) | PoR | 71.02% | PoR | 88.98% |
| 89 | №115 (Лг) | PoR | 70.53% | PoR | 89.25% |
| 88 | №42 (Днц) | PoR | 69.99% | PoR | 90.12% |
| 87 | №108 (Лг) | PoR | 69.23% | PoR | 90.86% |
| 86 | №3 (АРК) | PoR | 67.53% | PoR | 80.92% |
| 85 | №105 (Лг) | PoR | 67.18% | PoR | 91.41% |
| 84 | №4 (АРК) | PoR | 65.74% | PoR | 83.30% |
| 83 | №81 (Зп) | PoR | 65.70% | PoR | 86.86% |
| 82 | №106 (Лг) | PoR | 65.63% | PoR | 90.59% |
| 81 | №180 (Хрк) | PoR | 64.49% | PoR | 83.58% |
| 80 | №143 (Од) | PoR | 63.82% | PoR | 84.35% |
| 79 | №6 (АРК) | PoR | 63.57% | PoR | 81.83% |
| 78 | №179 (Хрк) | PoR | 63.11% | PoR | 83.96% |
| 77 | №9 (АРК) | PoR | 62.84% | PoR | 80.85% |
| 76 | №8 (АРК) | PoR | 62.84% | PoR | 75.42% |
| 75 | №178 (Хрк) | PoR | 62.59% | PoR | 83.94% |
| 74 | №82 (Зп) | PoR | 61.66% | PoR | 82.04% |
| 73 | №2 (АРК) | PoR | 60.89% | PoR | 84.88% |
| 72 | №181 (Хрк) | PoR | 60.76% | PoR | 80.31% |
| 71 | №1 (АРК) | PoR | 60.57% | PoR | 83.66% |
| 70 | №10 (АРК) | PoR | 59.92% | PoR | 75.11% |
| 69 | №224 (Свм) | PoR | 58.58% | PoR | 89.02% |
| 68 | №79 (Зп) | PoR | 58.34% | PoR | 81.26% |
| 67 | №225 (Свм) | PoR | 58.19% | PoR | 89.05% |
| 66 | №80 (Зп) | PoR | 57.44% | PoR | 78.82% |
| 65 | №7 (АРК) | PoR | 57.03% | PoR | 83.52% |
| 64 | №189 (Хрс) | PoR | 56.80% | PoR | 79.15% |
| 63 | №145 (Од) | PoR | 56.15% | PoR | 78.52% |
| 62 | №130 (Мк) | PoR | 55.49% | PoR | 80.32% |
| 61 | №139 (Од) | PoR | 55.13% | PoR | 73.37% |
| 60 | №132 (Мк) | PoR | 54.58% | PoR | 75.39% |
| 59 | №141 (Од) | PoR | 53.99% | PoR | 74.79% |
| 58 | №37 (Днп) | PoR | 53.85% | PoR | 74.16% |
| 57 | №182 (Хрк) | PoR | 53.77% | PoR | 73.82% |
| 56 | №129 (Мк) | PoR | 53.74% | PoR | 79.85% |
| 55 | №142 (Од) | PoR | 53.51% | PoR | 79.61% |
| 54 | №131 (Мк) | PoR | 53.49% | PoR | 74.09% |
| 53 | №183 (Хрк) | PoR | 53.29% | PoR | 76.81% |
| 52 | №140 (Од) | PoR | 52.95% | PoR | 70.56% |
| 51 | №39 (Днп) | PoR | 52.72% | PoR | 73.03% |
| 50 | №83 (Зп) | PoR | 52.36% | PoR | 74.04% |
| 49 | №177 (Хрк) | PoR | 51.31% | PoR | 74.00% |
| 48 | №134 (Мк) | PoR | 51.18% | PoR | 70.34% |
| 47 | №133 (Мк) | PoR | 51.12% | PoR | 70.90% |
| 46 | №174 (Хрк) | PoR | 50.31% | PoR | 76.75% |
| 45 | №38 (Днп) | PoR | 49.75% | PoR | 73.24% |
| 44 | №78 (Зп) | PoR | 47.87% | PoR | 73.66% |
| 43 | №40 (Днп) | PoR | 47.48% | PoR | 69.42% |
| 42 | №136 (Од) | PoR | 47.14% | PoR | 78.94% |
| 41 | №138 (Од) | PoR | 47.01% | PoR | 79.72% |
| 40 | №176 (Хрк) | PoR | 46.99% | PoR | 73.12% |
| 39 | №175 (Хрк) | PoR | 46.83% | PoR | 73.47% |
| 38 | №135 (Од) | PoR | 46.80% | PoR | 80.58% |
| 37 | №36 (Днп) | PoR | 46.69% | PoR | 70.05% |
| 36 | №34 (Днп) | PoR | 46.63% | PoR | 66.72% |
| 35 | №173 (Хрк) | PoR | 46.51% | PoR | 73.11% |
| 34 | №172 (Хрк) | PoR | 45.84% | PoR | 73.24% |
| 33 | №33 (Днп) | PoR | 45.59% | PoR | 70.77% |
| 32 | №32 (Днп) | PoR | 45.20% | PoR | 69.38% |
| 31 | №188 (Хрс) | PoR | 44.82% | PoR | 68.76% |
| 30 | №31 (Днп) | PoR | 44.50% | PoR | 67.34% |
| 29 | №75 (Зп) | PoR | 44.16% | PoR | 70.42% |
| 28 | №76 (Зп) | PoR | 43.50% | PoR | 68.58% |
| 27 | №171 (Хрк) | PoR | 43.27% | PoR | 70.17% |
| 26 | №137 (Од) | PoR | 43.04% | PoR | 76.82% |
| 25 | №30 (Днп) | PoR | 42.73% | PoR | 61.21% |
| 24 | №186 (Хрс) | PoR | 42.65% | PoR | 63.62% |
| 23 | №77 (Зп) | PoR | 42.45% | PoR | 68.93% |
| 22 | №187 (Хрс) | PoR | 41.86% | PoR | 62.05% |
| 21 | №170 (Хрк) | PoR | 41.65% | PoR | 68.38% |
| 20 | №35 (Днп) | PoR | 41.44% | PoR | 62.58% |
| 19 | №74 (Зк) | PoR | 41.12% | PoR | 55.19% |
| 18 | №25 (Днп) | PoR | 38.62% | PoR | 69.31% |
| 17 | №29 (Днп) | PoR | 38.59% | PoR | 67.62% |
| 16 | №24 (Днп) | PoR | 37.07% | PoR | 68.55% |
| 15 | №185 (Хрс) | PoR | 35.93% | PoR | 58.70% |
| 14 | №65 (Жт) | PoR | 35.41% | PoR | 52.28% |
| 13 | №184 (Хрс) | PoR | 35.06% | PoR | 56.65% |
| 12 | №28 (Днп) | PoR | 34.77% | PoR | 65.07% |
| 11 | №104 (Крв) | PoR | 34.65% | PoR | 51.84% |
| 10 | №73 (Зк) | PoR | 34.54% | BYuT | 56.60% |
| 9 | №161 (См) | PoR | 33.50% | PoR | 54.94% |
| 8 | №151 (Пл) | PoR | 33.20% | BYuT | 51.38% |
| 7 | №148 (Пл) | PoR | 32.78% | PoR | 51.43% |
| 6 | №72 (Зк) | PoR | 32.54% | BYuT | 53.95% |
| 5 | №206 (Чрв) | PoR | 31.71% | BYuT | 55.57% |
| 4 | №70 (Зк) | PoR | 31.05% | PoR | 52.64% |
| 3 | №226 (ЗВО) | PoR | 30.48% | BYuT | 64.07% |
| 2 | №26 (Днп) | SU | 37.91% | PoR | 63.18% |
| 1 | №27 (Днп) | SU | 36.43% | PoR | 67.70% |
| 1 | №204 (Чрв) | BYuT | 29.72% | BYuT | 69.50% |
| 2 | №146 (Пл) | BYuT | 30.20% | BYuT | 56.36% |
| 3 | №66 (Жт) | BYuT | 30.51% | BYuT | 60.41% |
| 4 | №208 (Чрг) | BYuT | 30.99% | BYuT | 56.69% |
| 5 | №71 (Зк) | BYuT | 31.21% | BYuT | 62.87% |
| 6 | №219 (Квм) | BYuT | 31.66% | BYuT | 64.11% |
| 7 | №63 (Жт) | BYuT | 32.04% | BYuT | 61.79% |
| 8 | №69 (Зк) | BYuT | 32.26% | BYuT | 63.74% |
| 9 | №147 (Пл) | BYuT | 32.28% | BYuT | 59.32% |
| 10 | №150 (Пл) | BYuT | 33.72% | BYuT | 59.60% |
| 11 | №222 (Квм) | BYuT | 34.25% | BYuT | 67.50% |
| 12 | №198 (Чрк) | BYuT | 34.42% | BYuT | 65.69% |
| 13 | №223 (Квм) | BYuT | 34.48% | BYuT | 67.23% |
| 14 | №167 (Тр) | BYuT | 34.60% | BYuT | 94.32% |
| 15 | №164 (См) | BYuT | 35.43% | BYuT | 63.07% |
| 16 | №152 (Пл) | BYuT | 35.59% | BYuT | 58.47% |
| 17 | №162 (См) | BYuT | 35.73% | BYuT | 62.65% |
| 18 | №207 (Чрв) | BYuT | 36.19% | BYuT | 72.93% |
| 19 | №103 (Крв) | BYuT | 36.19% | BYuT | 55.66% |
| 20 | №169 (Тр) | BYuT | 36.28% | BYuT | 93.20% |
| 21 | №122 (Лв) | BYuT | 36.38% | BYuT | 94.19% |
| 22 | №100 (Крв) | BYuT | 36.51% | BYuT | 63.23% |
| 23 | №165 (Тр) | BYuT | 36.65% | BYuT | 89.58% |
| 24 | №67 (Жт) | BYuT | 36.78% | BYuT | 66.36% |
| 25 | №214 (Квм) | BYuT | 36.98% | BYuT | 73.09% |
| 26 | №196 (Хм) | BYuT | 37.11% | BYuT | 69.97% |
| 27 | №168 (Тр) | BYuT | 37.36% | BYuT | 94.90% |
| 28 | №101 (Крв) | BYuT | 37.50% | BYuT | 57.99% |
| 29 | №149 (Пл) | BYuT | 37.66% | BYuT | 63.12% |
| 30 | №87 (ІФ) | BYuT | 37.67% | BYuT | 94.89% |
| 31 | №195 (Хм) | BYuT | 37.71% | BYuT | 71.28% |
| 32 | №84 (ІФ) | BYuT | 37.76% | BYuT | 87.92% |
| 33 | №88 (ІФ) | BYuT | 37.79% | BYuT | 93.14% |
| 34 | №217 (Квм) | BYuT | 37.81% | BYuT | 71.20% |
| 35 | №201 (Чрк) | BYuT | 37.91% | BYuT | 64.81% |
| 36 | №128 (Лв) | BYuT | 37.99% | BYuT | 94.15% |
| 37 | №90 (ІФ) | BYuT | 38.10% | BYuT | 92.16% |
| 38 | №64 (Жт) | BYuT | 38.15% | BYuT | 63.74% |
| 39 | №215 (Квм) | BYuT | 38.47% | BYuT | 73.42% |
| 40 | №218 (Квм) | BYuT | 38.57% | BYuT | 71.84% |
| 41 | №166 (Тр) | BYuT | 38.71% | BYuT | 86.77% |
| 42 | №154 (Рв) | BYuT | 39.10% | BYuT | 77.53% |
| 43 | №197 (Чрк) | BYuT | 39.37% | BYuT | 70.54% |
| 44 | №123 (Лв) | BYuT | 39.37% | BYuT | 91.72% |
| 45 | №205 (Чрв) | BYuT | 39.48% | BYuT | 80.12% |
| 46 | №127 (Лв) | BYuT | 39.89% | BYuT | 92.81% |
| 47 | №220 (Квм) | BYuT | 39.92% | BYuT | 74.01% |
| 48 | №190 (Хм) | BYuT | 40.03% | BYuT | 76.79% |
| 49 | №216 (Квм) | BYuT | 40.18% | BYuT | 74.04% |
| 50 | №89 (ІФ) | BYuT | 40.57% | BYuT | 91.58% |
| 51 | №221 (Квм) | BYuT | 40.66% | BYuT | 75.45% |
| 52 | №96 (Кв) | BYuT | 41.37% | BYuT | 76.00% |
| 53 | №68 (Жт) | BYuT | 41.46% | BYuT | 66.90% |
| 54 | №102 (Крв) | BYuT | 41.48% | BYuT | 64.62% |
| 55 | №194 (Хм) | BYuT | 41.68% | BYuT | 72.40% |
| 56 | №98 (Кв) | BYuT | 41.90% | BYuT | 72.67% |
| 57 | №153 (Пл) | BYuT | 42.10% | BYuT | 68.93% |
| 58 | №213 (Чрг) | BYuT | 42.39% | BYuT | 61.89% |
| 59 | №209 (Чрг) | BYuT | 42.65% | BYuT | 61.94% |
| 60 | №159 (См) | BYuT | 42.76% | BYuT | 75.67% |
| 61 | №99 (Кв) | BYuT | 43.07% | BYuT | 74.44% |
| 62 | №92 (Кв) | BYuT | 43.45% | BYuT | 73.81% |
| 63 | №192 (Хм) | BYuT | 43.53% | BYuT | 74.58% |
| 64 | №160 (См) | BYuT | 43.63% | BYuT | 74.05% |
| 65 | №11 (Вн) | BYuT | 43.88% | BYuT | 76.77% |
| 66 | №85 (ІФ) | BYuT | 43.96% | BYuT | 93.99% |
| 67 | №97 (Кв) | BYuT | 44.44% | BYuT | 73.95% |
| 68 | №91 (Кв) | BYuT | 44.55% | BYuT | 73.65% |
| 69 | №86 (ІФ) | BYuT | 44.85% | BYuT | 94.01% |
| 70 | №203 (Чрк) | BYuT | 45.12% | BYuT | 69.70% |
| 71 | №191 (Хм) | BYuT | 45.28% | BYuT | 73.68% |
| 72 | №14 (Вн) | BYuT | 45.36% | BYuT | 69.47% |
| 73 | №157 (Рв) | BYuT | 45.55% | BYuT | 77.19% |
| 74 | №17 (Вн) | BYuT | 45.61% | BYuT | 71.58% |
| 75 | №126 (Лв) | BYuT | 46.03% | BYuT | 93.38% |
| 76 | №18 (Вн) | BYuT | 46.32% | BYuT | 66.97% |
| 77 | №95 (Кв) | BYuT | 46.38% | BYuT | 76.42% |
| 78 | №193 (Хм) | BYuT | 46.44% | BYuT | 75.03% |
| 79 | №202 (Чрк) | BYuT | 46.60% | BYuT | 73.24% |
| 80 | №155 (Рв) | BYuT | 46.81% | BYuT | 79.66% |
| 81 | №158 (Рв) | BYuT | 46.93% | BYuT | 82.13% |
| 82 | №199 (Чрк) | BYuT | 47.39% | BYuT | 70.67% |
| 83 | №200 (Чрк) | BYuT | 47.56% | BYuT | 68.87% |
| 84 | №121 (Лв) | BYuT | 47.70% | BYuT | 92.27% |
| 85 | №94 (Кв) | BYuT | 48.19% | BYuT | 75.44% |
| 86 | №12 (Вн) | BYuT | 48.48% | BYuT | 78.84% |
| 87 | №163 (См) | BYuT | 48.50% | BYuT | 80.29% |
| 88 | №93 (Кв) | BYuT | 49.36% | BYuT | 76.50% |
| 89 | №156 (Рв) | BYuT | 49.87% | BYuT | 83.93% |
| 90 | №22 (Вл) | BYuT | 50.44% | BYuT | 85.43% |
| 91 | №16 (Вн) | BYuT | 50.59% | BYuT | 76.11% |
| 92 | №211 (Чрг) | BYuT | 51.84% | BYuT | 75.57% |
| 93 | №21 (Вл) | BYuT | 52.86% | BYuT | 81.47% |
| 94 | №212 (Чрг) | BYuT | 53.67% | BYuT | 78.30% |
| 95 | №210 (Чрг) | BYuT | 53.72% | BYuT | 73.35% |
| 96 | №15 (Вн) | BYuT | 54.86% | BYuT | 76.94% |
| 97 | №13 (Вн) | BYuT | 56.51% | BYuT | 79.15% |
| 98 | №19 (Вл) | BYuT | 56.91% | BYuT | 85.60% |
| 99 | №20 (Вл) | BYuT | 57.92% | BYuT | 87.48% |
| 100 | №23 (Вл) | BYuT | 59.23% | BYuT | 86.68% |
| 101 | №119 (Лв) | OU | 30.56% | BYuT | 80.00% |
| 102 | №118 (Лв) | OU | 31.79% | BYuT | 85.36% |
| 103 | №117 (Лв) | OU | 33.26% | BYuT | 82.39% |
| 104 | №120 (Лв) | OU | 34.65% | BYuT | 86.99% |
| 105 | №125 (Лв) | OU | 36.79% | BYuT | 95.30% |
| 106 | №124 (Лв) | OU | 39.60% | BYuT | 93.94% |
Comments