Sunday, December 04, 2011

Swing Seats: Presidential District Vote

The table below shows the running results of the district vote for the 1st and 2nd rounds 2010 Presidential vote.

It is useful in analyzing the  possible outcome of the 225 district single member first-past-the-post' electorates.
 
Any percentage above 50% means the party is under represented, those with less than 50% are over represented.  A comparison to the 2nd Round vote shows the winner of the district vote had there been only two candidates Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) or Party of Regions (PoR) running.

The 1st round results show it is possible to win a district vote , under a first-past-the-post voting system where the highest vote wins the seat, with less than 30% of the vote.

There are 86 districts that show 50% or more support and a staggering 140 seats (includes the foreign mission vote as the 226 seat) that are determined by less than an absolute majority.  Five seats swung from BYuT to PoR or visa-versa between the first round and second round vote. 



Summary of 1st round

PoR    118
* SU       2
BYuT  100
* OU      6

* All  below 50% ranging from 30.5% to 39.6%

ЗВО is Foreign Seats. Values shown in Green indicate a winning margin of less than 10% or the winning margin is less than 34%.

Normally a margin of less than 4% to 6% is considered a possible swing seat. Any seat that is less than 34% to 38% is also open to change by tactical candidate nominations. 

Under a "first-past-the-post" voting system the aim is to try and split, thus lower. your opponents vote.  This is done by running candidates that will take votes away from the party you do not want to win.  For example Party of Regions could decide to not run candidates in some Western Ukraine seats which would give "Our Ukraine" candidates a better chance of winning against a BYuT candidate.  

There are few PoR seats (5) that are open to a marginal attack but there are twice to three times BYuT seats that are marginal and vulnerable to tactical voting. 



ID District Party Vote% Party2 Vote2%
120 №56 (Днц) PoR 85.79% PoR 96.04%
119 №53 (Днц) PoR 83.31% PoR 95.30%
118 №52 (Днц) PoR 83.24% PoR 95.25%
117 №54 (Днц) PoR 82.23% PoR 95.87%
116 №57 (Днц) PoR 81.43% PoR 94.36%
115 №46 (Днц) PoR 80.93% PoR 93.43%
114 №111 (Лг) PoR 80.78% PoR 94.86%
113 №62 (Днц) PoR 80.45% PoR 94.95%
112 №55 (Днц) PoR 79.88% PoR 95.25%
111 №41 (Днц) PoR 79.31% PoR 94.13%
110 №110 (Лг) PoR 79.13% PoR 94.13%
109 №51 (Днц) PoR 78.97% PoR 94.38%
108 №44 (Днц) PoR 78.72% PoR 93.27%
107 №47 (Днц) PoR 78.17% PoR 92.81%
106 №61 (Днц) PoR 77.63% PoR 92.95%
105 №116 (Лг) PoR 77.47% PoR 93.81%
104 №49 (Днц) PoR 77.40% PoR 92.43%
103 №109 (Лг) PoR 76.43% PoR 93.28%
102 №43 (Днц) PoR 76.42% PoR 92.82%
101 №60 (Днц) PoR 75.68% PoR 91.57%
100 №45 (Днц) PoR 75.55% PoR 92.54%
99 №58 (Днц) PoR 75.07% PoR 92.85%
98 №50 (Днц) PoR 74.69% PoR 92.72%
97 №113 (Лг) PoR 74.25% PoR 91.95%
96 №107 (Лг) PoR 74.04% PoR 91.99%
95 №112 (Лг) PoR 73.28% PoR 91.81%
94 №48 (Днц) PoR 72.95% PoR 90.04%
93 №144 (Од) PoR 72.80% PoR 89.97%
92 №59 (Днц) PoR 71.90% PoR 91.12%
91 №114 (Лг) PoR 71.46% PoR 90.90%
90 №5 (АРК) PoR 71.02% PoR 88.98%
89 №115 (Лг) PoR 70.53% PoR 89.25%
88 №42 (Днц) PoR 69.99% PoR 90.12%
87 №108 (Лг) PoR 69.23% PoR 90.86%
86 №3 (АРК) PoR 67.53% PoR 80.92%
85 №105 (Лг) PoR 67.18% PoR 91.41%
84 №4 (АРК) PoR 65.74% PoR 83.30%
83 №81 (Зп) PoR 65.70% PoR 86.86%
82 №106 (Лг) PoR 65.63% PoR 90.59%
81 №180 (Хрк) PoR 64.49% PoR 83.58%
80 №143 (Од) PoR 63.82% PoR 84.35%
79 №6 (АРК) PoR 63.57% PoR 81.83%
78 №179 (Хрк) PoR 63.11% PoR 83.96%
77 №9 (АРК) PoR 62.84% PoR 80.85%
76 №8 (АРК) PoR 62.84% PoR 75.42%
75 №178 (Хрк) PoR 62.59% PoR 83.94%
74 №82 (Зп) PoR 61.66% PoR 82.04%
73 №2 (АРК) PoR 60.89% PoR 84.88%
72 №181 (Хрк) PoR 60.76% PoR 80.31%
71 №1 (АРК) PoR 60.57% PoR 83.66%
70 №10 (АРК) PoR 59.92% PoR 75.11%
69 №224 (Свм) PoR 58.58% PoR 89.02%
68 №79 (Зп) PoR 58.34% PoR 81.26%
67 №225 (Свм) PoR 58.19% PoR 89.05%
66 №80 (Зп) PoR 57.44% PoR 78.82%
65 №7 (АРК) PoR 57.03% PoR 83.52%
64 №189 (Хрс) PoR 56.80% PoR 79.15%
63 №145 (Од) PoR 56.15% PoR 78.52%
62 №130 (Мк) PoR 55.49% PoR 80.32%
61 №139 (Од) PoR 55.13% PoR 73.37%
60 №132 (Мк) PoR 54.58% PoR 75.39%
59 №141 (Од) PoR 53.99% PoR 74.79%
58 №37 (Днп) PoR 53.85% PoR 74.16%
57 №182 (Хрк) PoR 53.77% PoR 73.82%
56 №129 (Мк) PoR 53.74% PoR 79.85%
55 №142 (Од) PoR 53.51% PoR 79.61%
54 №131 (Мк) PoR 53.49% PoR 74.09%
53 №183 (Хрк) PoR 53.29% PoR 76.81%
52 №140 (Од) PoR 52.95% PoR 70.56%
51 №39 (Днп) PoR 52.72% PoR 73.03%
50 №83 (Зп) PoR 52.36% PoR 74.04%
49 №177 (Хрк) PoR 51.31% PoR 74.00%
48 №134 (Мк) PoR 51.18% PoR 70.34%
47 №133 (Мк) PoR 51.12% PoR 70.90%
46 №174 (Хрк) PoR 50.31% PoR 76.75%
45 №38 (Днп) PoR 49.75% PoR 73.24%
44 №78 (Зп) PoR 47.87% PoR 73.66%
43 №40 (Днп) PoR 47.48% PoR 69.42%
42 №136 (Од) PoR 47.14% PoR 78.94%
41 №138 (Од) PoR 47.01% PoR 79.72%
40 №176 (Хрк) PoR 46.99% PoR 73.12%
39 №175 (Хрк) PoR 46.83% PoR 73.47%
38 №135 (Од) PoR 46.80% PoR 80.58%
37 №36 (Днп) PoR 46.69% PoR 70.05%
36 №34 (Днп) PoR 46.63% PoR 66.72%
35 №173 (Хрк) PoR 46.51% PoR 73.11%
34 №172 (Хрк) PoR 45.84% PoR 73.24%
33 №33 (Днп) PoR 45.59% PoR 70.77%
32 №32 (Днп) PoR 45.20% PoR 69.38%
31 №188 (Хрс) PoR 44.82% PoR 68.76%
30 №31 (Днп) PoR 44.50% PoR 67.34%
29 №75 (Зп) PoR 44.16% PoR 70.42%
28 №76 (Зп) PoR 43.50% PoR 68.58%
27 №171 (Хрк) PoR 43.27% PoR 70.17%
26 №137 (Од) PoR 43.04% PoR 76.82%
25 №30 (Днп) PoR 42.73% PoR 61.21%
24 №186 (Хрс) PoR 42.65% PoR 63.62%
23 №77 (Зп) PoR 42.45% PoR 68.93%
22 №187 (Хрс) PoR 41.86% PoR 62.05%
21 №170 (Хрк) PoR 41.65% PoR 68.38%
20 №35 (Днп) PoR 41.44% PoR 62.58%
19 №74 (Зк) PoR 41.12% PoR 55.19%
18 №25 (Днп) PoR 38.62% PoR 69.31%
17 №29 (Днп) PoR 38.59% PoR 67.62%
16 №24 (Днп) PoR 37.07% PoR 68.55%
15 №185 (Хрс) PoR 35.93% PoR 58.70%
14 №65 (Жт) PoR 35.41% PoR 52.28%
13 №184 (Хрс) PoR 35.06% PoR 56.65%
12 №28 (Днп) PoR 34.77% PoR 65.07%
11 №104 (Крв) PoR 34.65% PoR 51.84%
10 №73 (Зк) PoR 34.54% BYuT 56.60%
9 №161 (См) PoR 33.50% PoR 54.94%
8 №151 (Пл) PoR 33.20% BYuT 51.38%
7 №148 (Пл) PoR 32.78% PoR 51.43%
6 №72 (Зк) PoR 32.54% BYuT 53.95%
5 №206 (Чрв) PoR 31.71% BYuT 55.57%
4 №70 (Зк) PoR 31.05% PoR 52.64%
3 №226 (ЗВО) PoR 30.48% BYuT 64.07%
2 №26 (Днп) SU 37.91% PoR 63.18%
1 №27 (Днп) SU 36.43% PoR 67.70%






1 №204 (Чрв) BYuT 29.72% BYuT 69.50%
2 №146 (Пл) BYuT 30.20% BYuT 56.36%
3 №66 (Жт) BYuT 30.51% BYuT 60.41%
4 №208 (Чрг) BYuT 30.99% BYuT 56.69%
5 №71 (Зк) BYuT 31.21% BYuT 62.87%
6 №219 (Квм) BYuT 31.66% BYuT 64.11%
7 №63 (Жт) BYuT 32.04% BYuT 61.79%
8 №69 (Зк) BYuT 32.26% BYuT 63.74%
9 №147 (Пл) BYuT 32.28% BYuT 59.32%
10 №150 (Пл) BYuT 33.72% BYuT 59.60%
11 №222 (Квм) BYuT 34.25% BYuT 67.50%
12 №198 (Чрк) BYuT 34.42% BYuT 65.69%
13 №223 (Квм) BYuT 34.48% BYuT 67.23%
14 №167 (Тр) BYuT 34.60% BYuT 94.32%
15 №164 (См) BYuT 35.43% BYuT 63.07%
16 №152 (Пл) BYuT 35.59% BYuT 58.47%
17 №162 (См) BYuT 35.73% BYuT 62.65%
18 №207 (Чрв) BYuT 36.19% BYuT 72.93%
19 №103 (Крв) BYuT 36.19% BYuT 55.66%
20 №169 (Тр) BYuT 36.28% BYuT 93.20%
21 №122 (Лв) BYuT 36.38% BYuT 94.19%
22 №100 (Крв) BYuT 36.51% BYuT 63.23%
23 №165 (Тр) BYuT 36.65% BYuT 89.58%
24 №67 (Жт) BYuT 36.78% BYuT 66.36%
25 №214 (Квм) BYuT 36.98% BYuT 73.09%
26 №196 (Хм) BYuT 37.11% BYuT 69.97%
27 №168 (Тр) BYuT 37.36% BYuT 94.90%
28 №101 (Крв) BYuT 37.50% BYuT 57.99%
29 №149 (Пл) BYuT 37.66% BYuT 63.12%
30 №87 (ІФ) BYuT 37.67% BYuT 94.89%
31 №195 (Хм) BYuT 37.71% BYuT 71.28%
32 №84 (ІФ) BYuT 37.76% BYuT 87.92%
33 №88 (ІФ) BYuT 37.79% BYuT 93.14%
34 №217 (Квм) BYuT 37.81% BYuT 71.20%
35 №201 (Чрк) BYuT 37.91% BYuT 64.81%
36 №128 (Лв) BYuT 37.99% BYuT 94.15%
37 №90 (ІФ) BYuT 38.10% BYuT 92.16%
38 №64 (Жт) BYuT 38.15% BYuT 63.74%
39 №215 (Квм) BYuT 38.47% BYuT 73.42%
40 №218 (Квм) BYuT 38.57% BYuT 71.84%
41 №166 (Тр) BYuT 38.71% BYuT 86.77%
42 №154 (Рв) BYuT 39.10% BYuT 77.53%
43 №197 (Чрк) BYuT 39.37% BYuT 70.54%
44 №123 (Лв) BYuT 39.37% BYuT 91.72%
45 №205 (Чрв) BYuT 39.48% BYuT 80.12%
46 №127 (Лв) BYuT 39.89% BYuT 92.81%
47 №220 (Квм) BYuT 39.92% BYuT 74.01%
48 №190 (Хм) BYuT 40.03% BYuT 76.79%
49 №216 (Квм) BYuT 40.18% BYuT 74.04%
50 №89 (ІФ) BYuT 40.57% BYuT 91.58%
51 №221 (Квм) BYuT 40.66% BYuT 75.45%
52 №96 (Кв) BYuT 41.37% BYuT 76.00%
53 №68 (Жт) BYuT 41.46% BYuT 66.90%
54 №102 (Крв) BYuT 41.48% BYuT 64.62%
55 №194 (Хм) BYuT 41.68% BYuT 72.40%
56 №98 (Кв) BYuT 41.90% BYuT 72.67%
57 №153 (Пл) BYuT 42.10% BYuT 68.93%
58 №213 (Чрг) BYuT 42.39% BYuT 61.89%
59 №209 (Чрг) BYuT 42.65% BYuT 61.94%
60 №159 (См) BYuT 42.76% BYuT 75.67%
61 №99 (Кв) BYuT 43.07% BYuT 74.44%
62 №92 (Кв) BYuT 43.45% BYuT 73.81%
63 №192 (Хм) BYuT 43.53% BYuT 74.58%
64 №160 (См) BYuT 43.63% BYuT 74.05%
65 №11 (Вн) BYuT 43.88% BYuT 76.77%
66 №85 (ІФ) BYuT 43.96% BYuT 93.99%
67 №97 (Кв) BYuT 44.44% BYuT 73.95%
68 №91 (Кв) BYuT 44.55% BYuT 73.65%
69 №86 (ІФ) BYuT 44.85% BYuT 94.01%
70 №203 (Чрк) BYuT 45.12% BYuT 69.70%
71 №191 (Хм) BYuT 45.28% BYuT 73.68%
72 №14 (Вн) BYuT 45.36% BYuT 69.47%
73 №157 (Рв) BYuT 45.55% BYuT 77.19%
74 №17 (Вн) BYuT 45.61% BYuT 71.58%
75 №126 (Лв) BYuT 46.03% BYuT 93.38%
76 №18 (Вн) BYuT 46.32% BYuT 66.97%
77 №95 (Кв) BYuT 46.38% BYuT 76.42%
78 №193 (Хм) BYuT 46.44% BYuT 75.03%
79 №202 (Чрк) BYuT 46.60% BYuT 73.24%
80 №155 (Рв) BYuT 46.81% BYuT 79.66%
81 №158 (Рв) BYuT 46.93% BYuT 82.13%
82 №199 (Чрк) BYuT 47.39% BYuT 70.67%
83 №200 (Чрк) BYuT 47.56% BYuT 68.87%
84 №121 (Лв) BYuT 47.70% BYuT 92.27%
85 №94 (Кв) BYuT 48.19% BYuT 75.44%
86 №12 (Вн) BYuT 48.48% BYuT 78.84%
87 №163 (См) BYuT 48.50% BYuT 80.29%
88 №93 (Кв) BYuT 49.36% BYuT 76.50%
89 №156 (Рв) BYuT 49.87% BYuT 83.93%
90 №22 (Вл) BYuT 50.44% BYuT 85.43%
91 №16 (Вн) BYuT 50.59% BYuT 76.11%
92 №211 (Чрг) BYuT 51.84% BYuT 75.57%
93 №21 (Вл) BYuT 52.86% BYuT 81.47%
94 №212 (Чрг) BYuT 53.67% BYuT 78.30%
95 №210 (Чрг) BYuT 53.72% BYuT 73.35%
96 №15 (Вн) BYuT 54.86% BYuT 76.94%
97 №13 (Вн) BYuT 56.51% BYuT 79.15%
98 №19 (Вл) BYuT 56.91% BYuT 85.60%
99 №20 (Вл) BYuT 57.92% BYuT 87.48%
100 №23 (Вл) BYuT 59.23% BYuT 86.68%
101 №119 (Лв) OU 30.56% BYuT 80.00%
102 №118 (Лв) OU 31.79% BYuT 85.36%
103 №117 (Лв) OU 33.26% BYuT 82.39%
104 №120 (Лв) OU 34.65% BYuT 86.99%
105 №125 (Лв) OU 36.79% BYuT 95.30%
106 №124 (Лв) OU 39.60% BYuT 93.94%

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