Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Doom and economic gloom prevails over Ukraine in 2012

Foreignnotes has another good appraisal of what waits Ukraine in the new year. 2012 does not offer high hopes for any change in fortune. Even the Euro2012 games will not lift the vale of despair.

'It is clear that post-Soviet system of governance and social division has exhausted itself - and not only in Ukraine" says  -TV journalist Vitaliy Portnikov

Fellow journalist, Mustafa Nayem, considers any change is not possible at the the moment. "Those who could potentially take over power are not capable of explaining why those currently in power are worse than they are.'

Whilst hopeful Mykola Knyazytskyi, considers a change is possible."If the country's basic democratic principles are neglected and there are no resources to fulfill the social needs of its citizens, mass protests may start any minute, and no one can predict when they could start."  The [revised] Ukrainian political system was formed by Viktor Yanukovych himself, so he has taken full responsibility for what happens in the country onto himself. Sociological reports indicate that neither he nor his party command a majority of the electorate. "Quite simply he is not liked as a leader. Dictators can retain power either by bayonets, or by the love of the people...And if there is no love, then Facebook and Twitter - are much more powerful weapons than bayonets"

The opposition are divided and lack direction, leadership and a vision of change.

Even if dissatisfaction in the current presidential ruler-ship takes hold and the opposition manage to win a majority of seats in the new Parliament (Unlikely given the rules of the election are already stacked against them)  they will still lack authority and power to implement change.

Ukraine will never be a free independent democratic state as long as Ukraine remains dominated and beholden to Presidential rule.  In the absence of a united polices and ground swell of public opinion calling for change in the system not just the faces Ukraine will  continue suffer its fate unknown.  Things are going to get a lot worst for Ukraine before they get better.

Democracy and responsible representative government is that much further and harder to reach as long as the opposition remain divided without vision or a road map for change.