Tuesday, September 09, 2014

MH17: Preliminary Report

The Dutch Safety Board  investigating the downing of Malaysian Airlines MH17 in Ukraine released its  Preliminary Report earlier today.

The report states that the plane was hit by high velocity projectiles that struck the cockpit destroying the structural integrity of the plane and causing it to plummet to the ground.  There are no signs of any mechanical failure or pilot error.

Page 25 figure 10 of the report  indicates that the projectiles that punctured the plane came from above the cockpit floor

There is no damage to the bottom or the body of the plane's fuselage.

Photographs not listed in the DSB board shows gauges to the top of the left wing that align up with the plane's cockpit

Whilst the report avoided making any definitive accusations or statements to the cause of the planes demise they did not rule in or out the possibility of an air to air attack,

Russian radar recorded at the time of the incident shows that there was at least one Ukrainian Fighter jet trailing flight MH17.  This is backed up by eyewitness accounts from people on the ground

The DSB report does not rule in or out the Ground to Air BUK missile attack but there has neither been any explanation as to how a BUK can cause the damage recorded to the cockpit and the top of the planes wing.  The attack had to come from above the cockpits floor.

In the absence of this information there is only one scenario that fits the bill based on the known facts already

The only way to know for sure is to collect the wreckage of the plane and reconstruct the cockpit area and determine exactly the angle of projection of the penetration holes that struck the plane,

The DSB has said that it needs to undertake closer examination of the planes wreckage to do more testing before it brings down its final report expected before July 2015

With the ceasefire in place in Eastern Ukraine recovery of the wreckage should be possible provided the Ukrainian Government does not get there first.

The BUK scenario