Monday, February 06, 2006

Poll - Sociological Research Centre Published Feb 6, 2006 -

Questions raised as to validity of poll

The possible winners of the parliamentary election in Ukraine according to the recent poll

If the election is on coming Sunday, only six parties and blocs will get over the three-percent barrier to Verkhovna Rada, the opinion poll proved.

Extract of report published on ForUm

January 24-31, the Sociological Research Centre conducted the opinion poll by the request of the Democratic Choice civil organization. According to the results of the poll, the Party of Regions would get 26.3%, BYuT – 18.9%, NSNU – 10.7%, Socialist Party of Ukraine – 9.1%, Vitrenko’s Bloc People’s Opposition – 6.3%, the Communist Party of Ukraine – 4.2%, Lytvyn People’s Bloc – 2.9%, PORA-PRP – 2.7%, Opposition Bloc “Ne Tak!” – 2.3%. 3.2% of voters would vote against all candidates, 6.7% - would not choice any candidate. The other blocs and parties would win 1% of the votes.

The respondents were asked a question about their willing to take part in the election: 64% said “yes,” 21% - “rather ‘yes’ than ‘no,’” 6% - failed to answer, 5% - “rather ‘no’ than ‘yes,’” 4% gave negative answer. Thereby, the experts may predict the record activity of the voters in the coming elections.

There were 1809 respondents asked by phone. The strategic error does not exceed 2.4%.

Note: If this was True and we have no reason to believe that this poll has any validity what so ever - BYuT would have out polled Our Ukraine and a possible alliance with the socialist, Our Ukraine and Pora would produce a 230 to 220 outcome in the Parliament. There is little chance that this poll holds up to proper scrutiny.

We have published this poll only to highlight the problems associated with obtaining accurate assessment of the people's voting intentions and the level of misinformation that is being promoted by one side in particular. We wait and see if additional polls of credibility reflect the same but we think this will not be the case.