Ukraine Today - An Independent Political Review

The latest opinion poll to be published shows no change in the expected outcome of the election. With less than 18 days remaining before the first round election there is little to no chance or expectation that the outcome of the election will change.  According to a survey carried out by the SOCIS Center for Social and Marketing Research Viktor Yanukovych has 31% support. Yulia Tymoshenko remains in second place with 16.7% The next highest candidate Sergiy Tigipko is 9 percentage points behind Tymoshenko who is on 7.9% followed by  Front for Change leader Arseniy Yatseniuk on  5.0% , Incumbent President Viktor Yuschenko is in an unwinnable position with only 4.0% ,  one percentage point ahead of communist party leader  Petro Symonenko who has 3.1%  support and Parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn even less on 2.7% . FOM Ukraine has reported that 88% of Ukrainians disapprove of President Viktor Yuschenko’s performance. Under Ukraine's ...

Presidential hopeful and Chairman the parliament's committee for national security and minister for defense Anatoliy Hrytsenko has proposed that the President of Ukraine be granted absolute authority over the deployment of Ukraine's Armed forces side stepping the requirement for parliamentary consent. Currently Ukraine's constitution requires any decision to deploy Ukrainian troops abroad to be determined by law and the consent of Ukraine's parliament.  The changes proposed by  Hrytsenko are alarming to say the least.   What would have happened in 2008 if Yushchenko has such all encompassing authority? According to recent polls Anatoliy Hrytsenko, a member of Our Ukraine who is running against incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, has less then 1% support.

Interfax is reporting a poll conducted by FOM-Ukraine. The poll shows that there will be a run-off ballot between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko.  More importantly it confirms that incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko, is set to fall off the political tree even though Yuschenko himself thinks he is ripe and fit to make an Orange vodka cocktail but vote-rigging will prevent him from being elected. Yuschenko's support was so low it did not even register in the published list. It would have to be the biggest vote fraud in history if he thinks he can bounce back from less then 3%. Candidate Percentage Yanukovych 28.5% Tymoshenko 14.4% Tigipko 6.0% Yatseniuk 6.0% Symonenko 4.8% Lytvyn 3.2% Others 7.1% Will not vote 5.9% Against All 8.5% Undecided 15.6% sum 100.0% The poll of 1,000 with an estimated error rate of 3.5% ...

Another week and little change expectations.  The deadline withdrawal from the ballot has expired and ballot papers are being printed in prepared for the big event. January 2 is the last day for public opinion polls to be published. As the campaign moves into it's last phase. The tent will be set-up and the side show of attraction to the man on the street opens its doors. It is a bitter cold winter The Orthodox Christmas is on January 7 and the old New year 7 days following on January 14. and the election day audition three days after that. Viktor Yushchenko is trying to  oust Yatseniuk from running in a desperate attempt to bolster his fledgling support, even thou Yatseniuk has better chance of being elected then  Yushchenko who remains the most despised President in Ukraine's modern history.

Ukraine has four weeks remaining in the first round Presidential campaign. The polls have shown little change in voters support with Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko remaining favorites to progress to the second round run-off ballot. There is concern that the election may still falter as the government has not yet transferred money to the Central Election authority to pay for the election estimated to cost over 100 million dollars with a total campaign cost of over one billion dollars. Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to veto the 2010 budget giving rise to further possible disruption to the elections process. Traditionally Ukraine's Presidential elections are held in October but Viktor Yushchenko was desperate to cling on to office for a long as he could and he forced Ukraine into holding the election in the midst of winter. Ukraine is facing one the coldest winters in recent history with temperatures dropping to blow minus 20 degrees which might see a lower then ...

Yushchenko is applying the pressure to have Yatseniuk pull out of the presidential race. Even though Yatseniuk has better chances of surviving the election then Yushchenko. Yushchenko yesterday called on the Ukrainian "Democrats" to support a single candidate for president. The Forum of Ukrainian Nationalists has addressed to presidential candidates Oleh Tiahnybok, Yuriy Kostenko and Arseniy Yatseniuk to withdraw their candidates in favor Viktor Yuschenko. Yesterday Yatseniuk stated that he would not withdraw from the race . Nor should he. Yushchenko has a lower support rating then Yatseniuk All the polls say that Yushchenko is not able to win a contest against Yanukovych. Ukrainians no longer trust or respect him. It would make more sense if Yushchenko resigned and offered his support to Yatseniuk. Meanwhile Yulia Tymoshenko is thinking on similar lines "All our democratic candidates, who will participate in the first round if they are so eager to do this…...

Not to be outdone by Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's embattled president, Viktor Yushchenko, has indicated that Ukrainian "Democrats" may consider nomination of a single presidential candidate . Exactly who Yushchenko considers to be part of the " Ukrainian democrats "  is not clear let alone what process they will take in deciding to nominate only one candidate. It is a bit late to decide this issue now.  The deadline for nomination withdrawals is December 21.  If candidates withdraw before that date they can get their deposit back after that date they forfeit their 2.5 million deposit. Yushchenko's support rating has slumped to a low 3.5% and a recent survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development lists Yushchenko with the highest negative rating (83%) of all candidates. The report in the media gives rise that Yushchenko, with only 4 weeks remaini...

Voters unhappy with choices, want jobs Source: Kyiv post   As the first presidential election in five years approaches on Jan. 17, pollsters and experts warn that voters will be bombarded by a sea of skewed sociological survey results intended to sway their choices. Often, such bogus polls seek to persuade voters that their preferred candidate has no chance of making it into a second-round runoff on Feb. 7, thereby encouraging votes for one of the front-runners. With such spin doctoring at play, Ukrainians need reliable surveys. The graphs and tables show polls conducted on Nov. 21-29 by trusted sources. The surveys were conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. The data are representative of the national population of Ukraine and have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent. All the interviews were conducted in Ukrainian and Russian by the Kyiv International Instit...

Research and Branding have published their December poll . This survey was a sample rate of 3,083 respondents with an estimated margin for error of 1.8% Candidate Dec Nov Oct Monthly Swing V. Yanukovich 33.40% 32.40% 31.40% 1.0% Y. Timoshenko 16.60% 16.30% 18.40% 0.3% S.Tigipko 7.40% 4.40% 3.60% 3.0% A. Yatsenyuk 6.70% 6.10% 8.90% 0.6% V. Litvin 4.10% 4.50% 2.30% -0.4% V. Yuschenko 3.80% 3.50% 3.50% 0.3% P. Simonenko 3.40% 3.80% 3.50% -0.4% Others Against All Undecided Will not vote 75.40% 71.00% 71.60% Run-Off Ballot Candidate Dec V. Yanukovich 46.70% Y. Timoshenko 30.00% Against All 13.20% Undeci...

There are a group of people, primarily based in the US, that are seeking to silence critics and debate about the events of 2004 and the so called orange revolution. They are the same small group of Yushchenko supporters that are renowned for ganging up on anyone who opposes their political point of view. At first they attacked anyone that questioned the events supporting 2004 but of late they have been out to attack those who were previously considered part of the "gang" comrades in arms. The battle lines have been redrawn and the Yushchenko supporters have turned on supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko in what is shaping up to be a night of the long knives with each group seeking revenge for betrayal and deceit. No doubts once the Presidential election is out of the way disclosure of events past will be pouring out as each team begins a purge from within. The "Orange revolution was a well executed and well planned media campaign event. Sure there were those who stood up for...

A recent public opinion poll by the Social Perspective Center for Public and Information technologies one month out from the first round of the election shows little change The only difference in this poll is the lower participation rate estimated at around 60% Both Vivtor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymochenko are expected to progress to the second round ballot with the nearest competitor Sergey Tigipko 14 percentage points behind Tymoshenko The poll was conducted in all regions of Ukraine, Crimea and in the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol on December 1-10, 2009. A total of 2,100 respondents participated in the survey. The poll's margin of error does not exceed 2.3%.Of this intending to cast a vote Candidate Dec V. Yanukovich 31.50% Y. Timoshenko 20.30% S. Tigipko 6.30% A. Yatseniuk 5.90% V. Litvin 5.30% P. Simonenko 4.20% V. Yuschenko 3.20% Others 7.9% Against ...

Ukraine's presidential election is not a contest but will determine Ukraine's future direction.   In 2004 Ukraine made an important step forward when it adopted amendments to it's constitution.  In doing so it took an important step towards democracy and European integration.   A strong head of state does not equate or necessitate a return to a soviet style presidential system   The proposals put forward by Viktor Yushchenko and supported by the likes of Viktor Medvedchuk would see Ukraine revert back to a Soviet style Presidential autocracy and in doing so would prevent Ukraine from becoming anything other then an associate member of the European Union.   Ukraine needs a head of state who truly values democracy and understand the need and long term benefits of Ukraine embracing a European parliamentary system of governance.   25 out of 27 EU states are governed by a parliamentary system. France and Cyprus being the only two that are not.  F...

Ukrainian Presidential think tank the "National Institute for Strategic Studies" (NISS) has been accused of rigging public opinion polls to favor their boss incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko In a recent poll undertaken by the NISS the president's agency has claimed that Yushchenko is sitting on 9.5% of the vote which is more than twice what all other polls have been reporting. The total vote allocated to the Yuschhenko's Party "Our Ukraine" candidates is 21.3%  (7% above what the President's party normally achieve). Missing from the published results is the vote for communist party leader Petro Simonenko who normally polls around 4-5%. Candidates % Yanukovych 32.70% Tymoshenko 18.80% Yushchenko 9.50% Yatseniuk 8.50% Tihipko 8.00% Lytvyn 6.00% Tyahnybok 3.90% Hrytsenko 2.10% Moroz 1.60% Kostenko 1.30% others ...

by Andreas Umland Source OpEdNews : The pro-Ukrainian Free Democratic Party of Germany is becoming a player in the EU's foreign affairs The issue of an EU membership perspective for Ukraine is central to this young democracy's current foreign relations and future domestic development. At least, this is what many members of Kyiv's political and intellectual elite believe – arguably, for good reasons. The prospect of becoming a fully accepted “member of the European family” was, in the opinion of many in both the West and East, important for the political and economic development of Central European as well as Baltic countries in the 1990s. It was a driving force in the quick transition of these post-totalitarian states into more or less liberal democracies today. Ukraine has been lacking this incentive for comprehensive democratization and effective state-building so far. The EU has adopted a position that, depending on who in Brussels and the Union's surrounding ...

Research and Branding have published the detailed survey results of their 50 days to go poll .  It shows some very interesting data.  Most notably was the candidate's negative rating poll.  Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine;s incumbent President, top the list with 74.6% of respondents rating him negatively. Next came Yulia Tymoshenko at 50.1% Petro Symonenko at 53.7% , Arseniy Yatseniuk at 49.9% and Yanukovych on 41.8% Lytvyn and Yanukovych were the two highest polling candidates in the positive scale. 4.9% said they did not know Tigipko and 1% did not know Yatseniuk. The six month trend graph showed Yanukovych and Tigipko overall picking up support whilst every other candidate remained flat or in decline.

Various statements by marginal presidential candidates about the likely electoral fraud are aimed to create a background for their post-election information campaigns and lawsuits, the leader of the Yedyny Tsentr Viktor Baloha said Nov. 24. Source zik.com.ua   Alarming declarations about the likely vote rigging directly point to organizational weaknesses of some candidates as the law allows for reliable barriers against any electoral fraud. For instance, any presidential candidate can send his 2 representatives to sit on local and regional electoral commissions, appoint observers to keep an eye on voting and counting of ballots. Proxies of candidates who have wide authority can also supervise the course of the voting. “These representative must have absolute trust of their patron. Everything depends on the correct choice of a candidate and professional level of his team,” Baloha summed up. Other effective barriers to electoral fraud are the Central Election Commission [wh...

Ukraine's embattled and disgraced President, Viktor Yushchenko, having caused the collapse of the orange revolution, and betrayed all those who supported his election, has stated for the first time that he will bow out of politics following the next presidential election. Yushchenko's support rating is less then 4 percent and he is set to lose office in the first round of the election. Many commentators believe he should have bowed out long ago and should not have re-nominated. By standing for a second term he is denying opportunity for those who support his candidacy to transfer their support to another candidate.  Those who will vote for Yushchenko in January will be throwing their vote away, they would be better off staying at home and not voting at all or voting "against all". In 2005 Yushchenko enjoyed the support of 52% of Ukraine and was even nominated for a Nobel prize.  His fall from grace could not be more dramatic. Where once he was the toast of the ...

50 days to go and Yanukovych is set to win the second round of voting with over 50% of the vote According to the lastest Research and Branding electoral poll also published on KyivPost Under Ukraine's flawed first-past-the-post voting system only the two highest polling candidates progress to the second round of voting. Yushchenko still remains the biggest loser stuck on 3.5% Lytvyn is holding ground doubling his last months rating. Yatseniuk is dropping by the week but still remains in third place ten percentage points below Tymoshenko. On a  two candidate preferred basis Yanukovych is on 47.4% to Tymoshenko 28.1%   - adjusted for the expected turn out (87%) Yanukovych wins over 50% of the vote Candidate Nov Oct Swing V. Yanukovich 32.40% 31.00% 1.4% Y. Timoshenko 16.30% 18.40% -2.1% A. Yatsenyuk 6.10% 9.60% -3.5% V. Litvin 4.50% 2.30% 2.2% S. Tig...

In what has been a full on news day for Ukraine it has become obvious that Ukraine will face another fresh round of Parliamentary elections in the new year. Party of Regions, Viktor Yanukovych has indicated that they aim to secure both the presidency and the prime-ministership once the Presidential election is over. Effort will be made to form a new coalition to appoint a new government. If that fails the newly elected president will seek ways to dismiss the parliament and hold fresh elections. Any possibility of meaningful long term constitutional reform will fall by the wayside as Ukraine becomes a one party state. This is what’s at risk the most. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Yanukovych may soon forsake the ideal of Ukraine adopting a European Parliamentary system in favor of short-term power and control. Yulia Tymoshenko has conceded as much. Parliamentary elections should not allowed to proceed without first addressing the fundamental issue ...

Ukraine's embattled President Viktor Yushchenko, has launched his bid for a second term of office promising a host of things he cannot deliver, He claims he will secure Ukraine the right to visa free travel within Europe and will dismiss Ukraine's parliament if they do not conform to his demands and adopt his proposed new constitution which would see the President invested in absolute power and control. His platform for a second term was presented to a less then packed audience of members of his staff and the remnants of his party Our Ukraine who have remained loyal and supportive of the president. Yushchenko's statements and reports in the media have demonstrated why he should not and will not be re-elected to a second term. Yushchenko's demands that the parliament must adopt his proposed constitutional reforms or face dismissal shows a complete lack of understanding of Ukraine's laws and democratic values. Yushchenko attempts to force a referendum to i...

With less then eight weeks left before the next presidential election little has changed in terms of expected results. Ukraine's embattled President, Viktor Yushchenko, will launch his bid for a second term today, a bid that will surely fail.  Whilst the first set of official opinion polls are yet to be published there is little change expected in the overall outcome. The two highest polling candidates remain Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko.  Yasteniuk comes in a distant third - 10 percentage pointed behind Yulia Tymoshenko with the rest of the flotilla lagging even further behind. With little prospect of any significant change occurring in the next 8 weeks. Yushchenko's party Our Ukraine is floating four candidates in this election with each candidate competing against each other dividing their share of the overall vote. With Yushchenko expected to lose outright in the first round his Party Our Ukraine will soon after dissolve and split into two with one sec...

Unburied bodies tell the tale of Detroit — a city in despair by Tim Reid in Detroit    The abandoned corpses, in white body bags with number tags tied to each toe, lie one above the other on steel racks inside a giant freezer in Detroit’s central mortuary, like discarded shoes in the back of a wardrobe. Some have lain here for years, but in recent months the number of unclaimed bodies has reached a record high. For in this city that once symbolised the American Dream many cannot even afford to bury their dead. “I have not seen this many unclaimed bodies in 13 years on the job,” said Albert Samuels, chief investigator at the mortuary. “It started happening when the economy went south last year. I have never seen this many people struggling to give people their last resting place.” Unburied bodies piling up in the city mortuary — it reached 70 earlier this year — is the latest and perhaps most appalling indignity to be heaped on the people of Detroit. The motor city ...

Eighteen candidates have been registered for Ukraine's next Presidential election scheduled for January 17, 2010.   Sixteen out of the eighteen candidates will lose in the first ballot. Whilst the election fuels the pages of the news and this blog the fact is there is no real contest.   Baring a miracle, an act of god or assignation (god forbid) or unexpected withdrawal of candidates the final presidential race will be between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko. Under Ukraine's two round first past the post presidential voting system the only real contest in the first round of voting is between second and third place. According to all the opinion polls the third placed candidate, Arseniy Yatseniuk, who is on 7.5%, is more then 10% behind the second place candidate Yulia Tymoshenko with 18% support. Given this is the case then the question must be asked, "Why go to the expense of holding a second round when the same result can be achieved in one sin...

Christy Clark: (Canada) "Vote for STV"  Christy's arguments in support of STV Proportional representation applies equally to Ukraine and all nations. The current first-past-the-post system serves the interest of the entrenched political parties.

On November 11 in the lead-up to the 2010 election Viktor Yushchenko, a caretaker president, has vetoed Ukraine's proposed tax on cigarettes . Yushchenko may have traded the health of Ukraine for a few cheap votes. Serious concern has been raised that Yushchenko has been paid off by the Tobacco lobby and may have been offered in return substantial financial support for his re-election campaign. It is estimated that one in three adults smoke in Ukraine. Tobacco related products are the greatest cause of death and poor public health. It kills more people then the flu.  Governments world wide have acted to try and prevent the sale of tobacco and taxation is the best weapon against its spread. Yushchenko in justifying his veto of the proposed taxation of tobacco products has falsely claimed that if the cost of cigarettes are increased Ukraine would be the target of illegal smuggling. This is far from the truth. Ukraine is one of cheapest suppliers of tobacco products in Europ...

Kyiv Post profile of performers Born in Oleshkiv village in Ivano-Frankivsk, 63-year-old pensioner Protyvsikh (until Oct. 2 Humeniuk) completed a law degree at Lviv Ivan Franko University after serving in the Soviet army. He was the mayor of Yaremche before being ousted in 1991 and later headed the customs service in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Currently, he is the president of the Ivano-Frankivsk Chamber of Trade and Industry.

Kyiv Post profile of performers www.kpu.net.ua Symonenko, 58, joined the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1978, working his way up the leadership ladder as an apparatchik during the 1980s in Donetsk Oblast. He has headed Ukraine’s Communist party since 1993. He lost a second round presidential contest to Leonid Kuchma in 1999, getting 22 percent support. His party’s popularity has consistently waned during the past decade.

Kyiv Post profile of performers unas.com.ua/game/pvsp Hailing from Poltava Oblast, 35-year-old Pabat earned a dentistry degree in 1996 from Kyiv’s Bohomolets State Medical University. He later studied economics and law at Kyiv National Shevchenko University in Kyiv. From 2000-2005, Pabat served as deputy chairman of Kyiv’s Svyatoshinskiy district, founding an ecology-based organization and several youth clubs. In 2005, Pabat founded Citizens Activist Kyiv, a non-governmental civic activist organization. He co-founded the People’s Salvation Army in 2009. Pabat has served as a Kyiv city councilmember since 2002, and has in recent years been allied with the city’s controversial mayor, Leonid Chernovetsky.

Kyiv Post profile of performers www.tigipko.com Tigipko, 50, is a career banker and politician. In the early 1990s, the Moldovan native established Privatbank, one of the country’s largest banks. He exited the bank in the late 1990s upon launching his political career, first serving as economy minister (1997-1999), then as lawmaker and central bank chief. He chaired the election campaign in 2004 for presidential candidate Victor Yanukovych. After a humiliating defeat, Tigipko stepped out of Ukrainian politics to build up a bank which he sold to Swedbank group for nearly $1 billion. This year, he announced his return to Ukrainian politics.

Kyiv Post profile of performers www.nashvybir.com.ua Propelled to Ukraine’s presidency by the Orange Revolution, Victor Yushchenko, 55, headed the central bank through much of the 1990s. He is Ukraine's third president and has staked out firmly pro-Western stances. He served as prime minister in 1999-2001. After being ousted, he formed his Our Ukraine political grouping, which mustered strong support in a 2002 parliament election. As prime minister in 1999-2001, his Cabinet was touted as Ukraine’s first reform-minded government. But his presidency has been marred by relentless bickering with opponents and Russia which have sidelined reforms. He lead his Our Ukraine political grouping in parliament and also served as prime minister under ex-President Leonid Kuchma. The Sumy Oblast native has been married twice. He has five children and two grandchildren.