Friday, June 29, 2007

Provocative Yet Insightful Hypothesis

LEvko of ForiegnNotes has translated the following text from an article by Sonya Koshkina (In Ukrainain). Sonya in her opinion piece raises a provocative hypothesis. A little out of date but worthy of consideration.


Extract from Foriegn notes

The formation of a democratic mega-bloc has fizzled out, as could have been predicted, in many respects because Yushchenko himself has personally taken over manual control of the process. He has done this in order to simultaneously neutralize both Lutsenko and Tymoshenko - two of his main opponents in the 2009 presidential elections. Once this is accomplished, then he can tackle Yanukovych.

Current NU leader Vyacheslav Kirilenko is not a crowd-pulling political heavyweight so Yushchenko has bowed to former socialists Yuriy Lutsenko's demands and promised many of his National self-defence people top jobs in any NU government, in exchange for his joining forces with NU. In this way the popular Lutsenko may be kept in check. The smaller right-wing parties in NU will probably be dumped.


However, Lutsenko's appearance in the orange bloc reduces the chances of a broad coalition being formed, and could even threaten the elections themselves, according to some Pot party workers.

Sonya Koshkina claims that Viktor Yanukovych agreed to early elections only because the president promised him that NU and "Regionally" would form ruling coalition after the elections. They also secretly mutually agreed to 'knobble' Tymoshenko.

About a week before Ivan Plyushch's appointment as National Security and Defence Council secretary he contacted that old political fixer, the Donetskiyite Yefim Zvagelsky. These two senior statesmen outlined a plan between themselves to overcome the crisis by forming a broad coalition, and this meant combined action against Tymoshenko. They then met head of the press secretariat Viktor Baloha, and further plotting took place - the president being well aware of what was going on. Subsequently Rinat Akhmetov and Raisa Bahatyrova met Yushchenko, who later praised Akhmetov for his assistance in solving the political crisis.

Mutual dislike of Tymoshenko is the only factor that Yu and Ya share - both have presidential ambitions, so both need to remove Tymoshenko from their path. According to Koshkina, they are both are planning a dirty election campaign, which could even involve the SBU security services, to discredit Tymoshenko.

The Oboz article ends with a link to an audio file recording of an eavesdropped telephone conversation, allegedly between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, in which he bawls her out for an interview she supposed to have given to the BBC in which she is critical of him. Her responses are of bewilderment. [This may well have been 'placed' in the media by Tymoshenko's camp.]

[LEvko concluding comments]

O.K, this could be wild speculation, but politics in Ukraine is a rough trade..and the elections are a long way off..

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