Thursday, April 19, 2007

Recent Poll - International Institute of Sociology - April 2007

According to a poll conducted by the Kiev-based International Institute of Sociology, if parliamentary elections in Ukraine were held in the middle of April, the Party of Regions led by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich would have won.

Source: ITAR-TASS News Service

The Party of Regions would have been supported by 35.9 percent of those who intend to vote. The Yulia Timoshenko Bloc would have received 20.9 percent, the pro-presidential Our Ukraine bloc would have scored 11.6 percent, and the Communist Party 3.4 percent.

Other parties and blocs would not have passed the 3-percent barrier.

People’s Self-Defense created by former interior minister Yuri Lutsenko would have received 2.1 percent, the Natalia Vitrenko Bloc 1.5 percent, the Socialist Party of Alexander Moroz 1.5 percent, and former parliament speaker Vladimir Litvin’s bloc 1.4 percent.

If early parliamentary elections, called by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko for May 27, take place, the Party of Regions and the Communist Party, without the Socialist Party, can create a parliamentary coalition again.

The poll involved 2,051 respondents in all regions of Ukraine, the Crimea, and Kiev.

Comment:
Under Ukraine's current electoral system only parties that receive more then 3% of the overall vote are elected to Parliament those below the 3% threshold are denied representation.

The number of seats is allocated to each party above the 3% quota is calculated by scaleing up and proportioning out the seats according to the allocated percentage each party receives.

Based on the above poll the following seat allocations would be made.

Party - Seats out of 450
Party of Regions - 225 (45.0%)
Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko - 131 (29.1%)
Our Ukraine - 73 (16.2%)
Communist Party of Ukraine - 21 (4.7%)

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