Monday, February 08, 2010

Back to the future: Yanukovych still on track with 70% of the vote

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:30AM)

Over 70% of  protocols counted Yanukoych extending his lead as more voptes from tjhe populous East are registered.  Yanukovych (49.08%) Tymosnenko (45.27%)  Against All (4.49%) Informal (1.15%)

Total votes counted. 16,940,350 (46.31%)

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:15AM)

Tymoshenko has opicked up some ground in the last hour but this is due to outstadning protocols in Western being submitted later then in teh East.  There is still a lot of Crimra and Luhanst votes to be registered in the East which will see the scales tip back in Yanukovych's favour.  Current split Yanukovych (48.99%) Tymsohenko (45.37%)

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 3:15AM)

With just over 52% of the vote counted the turn-out looks like being lower then in the first round at approximately  60%-62%  Yanukovych has been showing a consistent lead at 49.65% and Tymoshenko on 44.73%

A scan of the protocols registered shows that Western Ukraine votes are taking a little longer to  be registered but they will not make up the short fall.   The estimated number of Against All (4.51%) and informal ballots  (1.12%) is on target.

Total number of ballot papers recorded to date is 13,007,237 (32.81% of enrolled)

The outcome is as expected and in line with our lower end estimation (5%) - See our minor candidate split table analysis which challenged the Angus Read KIIS poll. The lower end is due to the lower then expected turn-out. When the count is finalised we will produce some swing charts comparing the first round with the final round and also with the 2004 Presidential election. so you can see where the vote changed.

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