Sunday, January 17, 2010

Insider polling

Analysis: by Adrian Karatnycky
New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis

The Atlantic Council, Wash, D.C., Fri, 15 January 2010

NEW YORK - Ukraine votes in the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, January 17th. 

Ukraine does not permit the release of polling data in the two weeks prior to the contest.  But I have obtained reliable polling data from colleagues, based on polling conducted last week for internal use by campaign officials, which suggests that Viktor Yanukovych leads incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko by 8 to 10 percent, a narrowing from two weeks ago, when Yanuokvych led by 12 to 15 percent:

Candidate
Support
Viktor Yanukovych
34.00%
Yulia Tymoshenko
24.50%
Serhiy Tihipko
12.50%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk
6.50%
Viktor Yushchenko
5.50%
Petro Symonenko
4.00%
Volodymyr Lytvyn
3.50%
Oleh Tyahnybok
2.00%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko
1.00%
 Others (Against All)
6.50%
 sum
100.00%

UkrToday Comment: The above insider poll is within expectations (+/- 2%). It shows a win for Yanukovych and Tymoshenko with both main players shoring up their vote in the last two weeks and a dramatic loss of support for Yushchenko

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, the vastly unpopular head of state and failed leader of the "Orange revolution" of 2004, will struggle to reach 5 percent support and may finish as low as 5th.

1 Comment:

UkrToday said...

The insider poll proved to be the most accurate.