Thursday, January 28, 2010

Poll: Yanukovych 55.9 to Tymoshenko 40.7

Angus and Read is reporting a poll undertaken by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute.

It shows 

Viktor Yanukovych
55.9%
Yulia Tymoshenko
40.7%
Against all candidates
3.4%
Source: Kyiv International Sociology Institute
Methodology: Interviews with 2,002 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Jan. 4 to jan. 13, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.


This poll is hard to believe because for one it is missing the informal vote which was recorded at 1.65% not to forget Vasyl Protyvsikh vote (0.16%) in the first round, which often is rolled up into the Against All (2.21%) classification, The Poll also does not include the estimated participation rate which is equally important.

Our Analysis of the first round vote indicates that the poll will be much more closer then the 15% gap indicated. For Yanukovych to to increase his vote by 20 percentage points and Tymoshenko only by 15 percentage points would indicate that she would only pick up a fraction of Tigipko's support base and less then 60% of Our Ukraine's 12% to 14%, 40% of Lytvyn and none of the Communist block.

We believe Yulia Tymoshenko will collect more, the Against All quota will be twice that indicated in the poll and that in the final outcome Yanukovych will win by a 5% margin (44% to 49% with 6% against all - +/- 1%).

Yanukovych's challenge is to go above the 50% mark although that is not required.  Under Ukrainian law the winner of the second round is the highest polling candidate.

First Round: Minor Candidate split table (Conservative allocation)



Candidate
Vote
Split to
Yanu kovych
Split to
Tymo shenko
Split to
Against All
Viktor Yanukovych
35.33%
100.00%
35.33%




Yulia Tymoshenko
25.05%


100.00%
25.05%


Serhiy Tihipko
13.06%
55.00%
7.18%
40.00%
5.22%
5.00%
0.65%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk
6.96%
15.00%
1.04%
80.00%
5.57%
5.00%
0.35%
Viktor Yushchenko
5.46%
25.00%
1.36%
65.00%
3.55%
10.00%
0.55%
Petro Symonenko
3.55%
50.00%
1.77%
45.00%
1.60%
5.00%
0.18%
Volodymyr Lytvyn
2.35%
50.00%
1.18%
45.00%
1.06%
5.00%
0.12%
Oleh Tyahnybok
1.43%
10.00%
0.14%
85.00%
1.22%
5.00%
0.07%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko
1.21%
30.00%
0.36%
60.00%
0.72%
10.00%
0.12%
Inna Bohoslovska
0.42%
50.00%
0.21%
40.00%
0.17%
10.00%
0.04%
Oleksandr Moroz
0.39%
40.00%
0.15%
50.00%
0.19%
10.00%
0.04%
Yuriy Kostenko
0.22%
15.00%
0.03%
75.00%
0.17%
10.00%
0.02%
Liudmyla Suprun
0.19%
60.00%
0.12%
30.00%
0.06%
10.00%
0.02%
Vasyl Protyvsikh
0.16%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
0.16%
Oleksandr Pabat
0.14%
15.00%
0.02%
75.00%
0.11%
10.00%
0.01%
Serhiy Ratushnyak
0.12%
50.00%
0.06%
30.00%
0.04%
20.00%
0.02%
Mykhailo Brodskiy
0.06%
50.00%
0.03%
40.00%
0.02%
10.00%
0.01%
Oleh Riabokon
0.03%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Against all
2.21%




100.00%
2.21%
Informal
1.65%




100.00%
1.65%
 Est Summary
100.00%

49.00%

44.74%

6.22%

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