Saturday, January 09, 2010

Doing deals with minor candidates

There is a lot of talk around that this deal or that deal has been made. Whilst deals are possible in seeking political positions or appointments the fact is they can not deliver. Most do not have loyal natural constituencies. They can not direct their supporters to transfer their votes.

Tigipko, who is expected to come in third behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, support base will split between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych in the second round. The same with the Communist and to a lessor degree Yatseniuk.

Yastensenik can not transfer his support to Yushchenko many would opt to support Tymoshenko is he pulled out at the last minute. Yushchenko himself can not direct his own support base which in the second round is expected to also split down the middle in the second round

Example "Split analysis"

Using the survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. and a conservative split based between Yanukovych, Tymoshenko and Against All

Candidate
Poll
Split to
Yanu kovych
Split to
Tymo shenko
Split to
Against All
Viktor Yanukovych
31.2%
100.0%
31.2%




Yulia Tymoshenko
19.1%


100.0%
19.1%


Serhiy Tihipko
4.8%
40.0%
1.9%
40.0%
1.9%
20.0%
1.0%
Arseniy Yatsenyuk
4.7%
25.0%
1.2%
50.0%
2.4%
25.0%
1.2%
Volodymyr Lytvyn
2.8%
30.0%
0.8%
50.0%
1.4%
20.0%
0.6%
Viktor Yushchenko
3.5%
20.0%
0.7%
50.0%
1.8%
30.0%
1.1%
Petro Symonenko
3.8%
40.0%
1.5%
30.0%
1.1%
30.0%
1.1%
Inna Bohoslovska
0.7%
40.0%
0.3%
40.0%
0.3%
20.0%
0.1%
Oleh Tyahnybok
1.8%
5.0%
0.1%
75.0%
1.4%
20.0%
0.4%
Anatoliy Hrytsenko
0.7%
20.0%
0.1%
60.0%
0.4%
20.0%
0.1%
Others
2.4%
40.0%
1.0%
40.0%
1.0%
20.0%
0.5%
Against all





100%
7.9%
Will Not vote







Not sure







 sum
83.4%

38.8%

30.7%

13.9%
Total of Vote


46.6%

36.8%

16.7%

This is not a prediction but it does show the extent of the split in voters' intentions in a possible second round outcome based on the primary round vote. There never is a 100% transfer rate from one candidate to the another. If you wish you can do your own "what if's" to determine the max min split in order to produce a change in the result.  Tymoshenko would have to improve her primary vote and work hard on securing a higher percentage split then that allocated above in order to make up the 10 percent shortfall.  Don't rely on the "Not sure" 11.6% as they would even out across the board to produce an expected participation rate of around 83% and as such not listed in the above split analysis.

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