Ukraine Today - An Independent Political Review

With Viktor Yushchenko finally removed from office. not before he managed to make some rather controversial appointments in the days before his departure, the president's party Our Ukraine-Peoples' Self Defence have signaled that they will be entering negotiations with Party of Regions and Boc Lytvyn to form a new governing coalition .  Our Ukraine try to resurrect 2006's failed negotiations for a boards coalition and again on their terms. A new governing coalition can only be formed with the support of either Bloc Tymoshenko or Our Ukraine Peoples' Self Defense. (Article 83 of Ukraine's Constitution limits formation of a governing coalition to factions not individuals)  This has given both parties considerable power and influence in the "new" government.  Our Ukraine are demanding a new premier and have proposed that they hold the prime minister's position.  They have effectively revisited their actions of the past.  In 2006 Our Ukraine triggere...

A sign of things to come Victor Yushchenko offers compromise to support a new governing coalition, if  Party of Regions gives up Language and the Russian Black Fleet . Our Ukraine but not Peoples' Self Defense would join Party of Regions in a coalition without the Communist Party. ITARTASS reports : " Viktor Yushchenko, the outgoing Ukrainian president, promises always to be a partner for the new president." - interview with the Kiev-based Inter TV Channel on Sunday. This coming from a party that rejected and refused a compromise to allow the Socialist Party's Olexandr Moroz to hold the Speakers position back in 2006.  A decision that signaled the end of the Orange revolution. Yushchenko goes on reported as saying " Ukraine needs political stability, the pragmatic creation of a parliamentary majority and the formation of a government as soon as possible. " ... " I have three things to advise you: unity, unity and again unity, both in politi...

If anyone had any doubts about a deal cut between Yanukovych and Yushchenko should take note. Lexisnexis has reported that a coalition agreement has been drawn up between Party of Regions and Our Ukraine - details of the terms of the agreement have not been made public. QUOTE: "The opposition Party of Regions, whose leader Viktor Yanukovych won Ukrainian presidential elections, and the Our Ukraine - People's Self Defence pro-government bloc drafted a coalition agreement, the Zerkalo Nedeli (Weekly Mirror) writes on Saturday. The draft document was submitted to parliament speaker Vladimir Litvin and faction members. First vice speaker Alexander Lavrinovich represents the Party of Regions in talks." Lytvyn has issued a press release that a statement on the governing coalition will be made on March 2 . Under the terms of Ukraine's constitution a governing coalition must comprise factions (not individuals)  who represent a majority of the parliament. (Article...

Tymoshenko has withdrawn her legal challenge to the Ukrainian 2010 Presidential election paving the way for Yanukovych inauguration on February 25. Tymoshenko was never going to win the court battle and her allegation of corruption in the court process is another example of how one day she places her faith in the people of Ukraine and the system only to reject that faith when it is obvious she was not winning. Tymoshenko has suffered a loss as a result of her actions the question is to what extent. With February 25 out of the way and Yanukovych instead as President the next challenge she will face is a vote of no confidence in her government. A number of factors will come into play not the least that if fresh parliamentary elections are held Ukraine will once again enter into a period of instability and political campaigning.  many existing members of parliament will not be returned if fresh elections are held. Lytvyn runs the risk of falling believe the 3% representation t...

International reaction Yushchenko’s decree has caused turmoil and provoked a strong reaction not only in Ukraine, but also abroad. Even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the awarding of the Hero of Ukraine to Stepan Bandera as unacceptable: “Any glorification, recognition given to the people who participated in vile actions against people, innocent people, my own people, is something we cannot accept,” the Israeli prime minister said in an interview with Interfax and Kommersant daily.

Yushchenko Facilitates Yanukovych’s Election and Buries the Orange Revolution   Taras Kuzio Two major myths promoted by President Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine’s 2010 presidential elections were that there was no difference in policies between the two main candidates, Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko, and that both were “pro-Russian.” These myths helped defeat Tymoshenko by 3 percent in an election where every vote counted. Several pieces of evidence point to the Yushchenko-Yanukovych alliance that facilitated Yanukovych’s election. For instance, the lack of criticism by Yushchenko of Yanukovych preceding the elections (Ukrayinska Pravda, February 10). Yushchenko never criticized Yanukovych’s pro-Russian policies on energy (gas consortium, return to non-market subsidized prices, and revival of the corrupt RosUkrEnergo); Russian as a state language; the extension of the Black Sea Fleet base beyond 2017; opposition to NATO membership, and the Party of Regions allianc...

  Interfax-Ukraine Moscow, February 17 (Interfax) - The awarding of the Hero of Ukraine decoration to Stepan Bandera is unacceptable, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Any glorification, recognition given to the people who participated in vile action against people, innocent people, my own people, is something we cannot accept, it's simply unacceptable," he said in an interview with Interfax and the Kommersant daily. On January 22, Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko, who lost the election, awarded the Hero of Ukraine to Bandera, the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, accused by many of abetting the Nazis during World War II.

The Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission has officially declared Viktor Yanukovych the victor  of the 2010 Presidential election.  Under the provisions of Ukraine's constitution Yanukovych must be worn in as President within 30 days. Having won the election in October 2004 and lost the it in a re-run election in December that year Yanukovych will be given a chance to show the wold that he can act in the best interest of Ukraine. Yulia Tymoshenko's attempts to declare the election null and void will fail. Everyone is against her, the hardest thing she will find is that the OSCE and PACE backed by all the Exit Polls have confirmed the result and election as being fair and a true refection of the people of Ukraine. Will Tymoshenko seek to disrupt Yanukovych swearing in ceremony?  This is yet to be seen. The good news is that Ukraine has less then 30 days before Viktor Yushchenko is ousted form office.  He has been extraordinary quite of late with most people ...

Two interesting outcomes in the final round vote that have not been widely discussed in the English media is the outcome in Zakarpattia and Ternopil. We are not sure if it has been been discussed in the Ukrainian media 1. Viktor Yanukovych was the highest polling candidate in Zakarpattiia previsoully Our Ukraine/Yushchenko were the highest. (See 2004,2006 and 2007 election results ) District 74 місто Берегове (Beregove - a Hungarian community located near the border) 2. The other interesting observation is that Yanukovych actually went backwards between the first round and the second round in Ternopiil.  In the first round Yanukovych received 6354 (0.26% of the national vote) in the second final round, with less number of candidates, Yanukovych recorded only 5370 (0.21% of the national vote)  Why Yanukovych went backwards in the second round is any ones guess but we think this  would make interesting reading.

The Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission had registered all polling places' results. The Commission has until February 17 to officially declare the results of the election and then within 30 days the president elect Viktor Yanukovych should be sworn into office as Ukraine's next President. Candidate Vote Percentage Victor Yanukovych 12,481,268 48.96% Yulia Tymoshenko 11,593,340 45.48% Against All 1,113,51 4.37% Informal  305,844 1.20% Total vote 25,493,503 Virtual Election map Click here to view

Counting is progressing slowly with the total number of protocols edging to 99.91%. Yanukovych 12,468,061 48.95% Tymoshenko  11,584,767 45.48% Against All 1,112,299 4.36% Informal  305,278 1.19% Total  25,470,405

24 hours  after the polls closed the following Obslasts/Districts have not submitted their polling return protocols. (What is the hold up? why does it  take to long to count a few votes ?- its not a difficult task) Region District No Percentage counted Crimea 1 94.44% 3 83.13% 6 90.99% 9 56.41% 10 97.43% Volyn Oblast 19 98.66% Zaporizhia Oblast 77 98.87% Kyiv Oblast 93 98.33% Luhansk Oblast 109 87.05% 110 91.66% Lviv Oblast 120 95.28% Odesa Oblast 141 98.28% 145 97.84% Kherson Oblast 189 90.41% Cherkasy Oblast 203 93.49%

Victor Yanukovych, contender in the 2004 Presidential  election and former Prime-minister of Ukraine 2006-2007 has become President elect  winning over 48% of the national vote three percent more then his rival the hero of the Orange revolution Yulia Tymoshenko. If there is a villain in this election it was out-going disgraced president Viktor Yushchenko.  Yushchenko received only 5.45% of the vote in the first round of the presidential elections.  He is widely seen as a failed president who divided Ukraine and did not live up to expectations.  Yushchenko demonstrated the futility of the presidential system. His term of office will be remembered as a complete failure. If Tymoshenko has anyone to blame for her loss it is Yushchenko.  His inability to accept the will of the people and the majority opinion of his own political alliance was his downfall.  He espoused the words of democracy yet his policies and actions where far from democratic. ...

IN what tuned out to be a closer match then expected Viktor Yanukovych, former prime minister and presidential hopeful in the 2004 "Orange revolution" has won the 2010 Presidential election  by a 3% margin. As of 20:30 Vote Percentage Viktor Yanukovych 12,372,737 48.81% Yulia Tymoshenko 11,562,112 45.61% Against All 1,108,582 4.37% Informal 1.19% Participation 25,346,432 69.30% Turn out 2% more punters voted this round then in the first round event The  outcome was in line with exit polls closest margin and in spite various protests by Yulia Tymoshenko Yanukovych, runner up in the final 2004 contest  is expected to be declared the winner of the 2010 parade.  The conduct of the election has received the all important stamp of approval by the OSCE. There will not be a repeat of the events of 2004.  The judges decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into to.  Any attempt to overturn the result will fail and will only cause m...

Victor Yanukoych's slender majority is not an absolute mandate he failed to break over the 50% threshold.   Tymoshenko's'  support is never the less impressive and indicates the extent that Ukraine is divided. Yanukovych must acknowledge the support given to Tymoshenko's candidacy and reconsider his policy of confrontation and the proposed dismissal of Ukraine's parliament.  He must make every effort to find common ground and to once again join Tymoshenko at the negotiating table and seek a strategic alliance that is in Ukraine's best interest. Yanukovych has a limited mandate only.   He can only claim the right to represent 33% of Ukraine (48% of 69%). In making a conciliatory jester Tymoshenko must also concede the election which all the exit polls had  confirmed Yanukovych's slender win. With Yushchenko removed from office there is hope.  Hope that Ukraine can find a way forward without another round of elections and ongoing political conf...

The morning after 6:00AM With Over 80% of protocols recorded Viktor Yanukovych on 48.68% has maintained his lead over Tymoshenko who has 45.67%.  A closer then expected margin of 3%. The number of participants is estimated to be 65%. The Crimean vote (33.62% counted) is still to be included. All other regions have over 67% registered. Its all over but for the declaration of the poll.  Tymoshenko will maintain that that she had been cheated out of office. The reality is she did well to secure as many votes as she had given the extent of competition against her. The outcome of the election will give cause for Yanukovych to think twice before pursuing a fresh parliamentary election.  Yanukovych could not hold on to the 50% psychological victory.  His win is not a triumph but as they say winners are grinner's and he will be sworn into office.  There will be no Maidan or Orange revolution II.  Sure Yulia will scream and continue to try and  undermin...

Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:30AM) Over 70% of  protocols counted Yanukoych extending his lead as more voptes from tjhe populous East are registered.  Yanukovych (49.08%) Tymosnenko (45.27%)  Against All (4.49%) Informal (1.15%) Total votes counted. 16,940,350 (46.31%) Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 4:15AM) Tymoshenko has opicked up some ground in the last hour but this is due to outstadning protocols in Western being submitted later then in teh East.  There is still a lot of Crimra and Luhanst votes to be registered in the East which will see the scales tip back in Yanukovych's favour.  Current split Yanukovych (48.99%) Tymsohenko (45.37%)   Count Update: (8-Feb-2010 3:15AM) With just over 52% of the vote counted the turn-out looks like being lower then in the first round at approximately  60%-62%  Yanukovych has been showing a consistent lead at 49.65% and Tymoshenko on 44.73% A scan of the protocols registered shows that Western U...

 Exit Polls have already called the election not the official results are confirming what we all know.  Yanukovych to be Ukraine's next President.  Yanukovych is expected to exceed the 50% margin with a Comfortable lead. Live results now posted on Virtual Election map Click here to view

Inter Tv is reporting Yanukovych winning by a margin of 5-8%  Which is the margin we have predicted all along.  Official data is expected to start coming in in the next hour. Update: Interfax-Ukraine exit poll: Yanukovych leads among voters in Kyiv, regional capitals Today at 20:32 | Interfax-Ukraine  Kyivpost Victor Yanukovych is leading among voters in regional capitals and the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol, according to an exit poll conducted by Interfax-Ukraine reporters on site at polling stations. According to the poll, Yanukovych received 51% of votes, while Tymoshenko got 41% with 8% votes against both presidential candidates. A total of 3,100 people took part in the poll in 23 regional capitals, and the cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol. National Exit Poll: Yanukovych has been elected the next Ukraine’s president Today at 19:56 | Staff reports Kyiv Post   National Exit Poll 2010 found that 48.7 percent of voters chose ...

Ukraine goes to the polls today. Voting had commenced first in Australia and then Japan as it sweept the globe, the Russian continent and Asia.  Next comes Ukraine where the bulk of the votes will be cast followed by Poland, Turkey, Europe, England then Canada and the USA. Polling opens 8:00AM and closes 6:00PM (Local time) Exit polls giving an indication of the first results are expected to be released by 8:00PM

It may be frustrating and at times boring but the Ukrainian 2010 Presidential parade never ceases to amaze. Ever since 2004 when Viktor Yushchenko was crowned head clown in a blaze of orange the world has look on and watched a state it its making.  More exciting the formation of galaxies or the explosion of a quasar star and the birth of a black hole.  Viktor Yushchenko who once held the support of 52% of the nation lost in the first round elimination parade and only managed to secure 5.45% support. A team of would be spoiler candidates stood against him making sure he would not be a final contender. Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's Prime Minister and version of Evita "Don't die for me Ukrainiana"  versus Viktor Yanukovych,  back to the future "return of the dark horse villain". Most Cossackwood watchers and critics  have already awarded the event to the " Dark horse " who has odds less then  three to one.  Even the attention seeking antics of Ukr...

Source: ForUA Polish President Lech Kaczynski has said a decree by outgoing Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko to declare Stepan Bandera, whom many see as a Nazi collaborator during WWII, a national hero, runs contrary to the historical truth Bandera was a leader of the Ukrainian national movement in Western Ukraine and headed the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) in 1941-1959. The Soviet authorities accused him of numerous acts of murder and terrorism and authorized his assassination by the KGB in Munich, Germany, on October 15, 1959. “An estimate of activities of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army is categorically negative in Poland,” Kaczynski said in a statement. He said the OUN and the UIA “carried out large-scale massacres” of the Polish people in eastern territories of the former Rech Pospolita, and “more than 100,000 Poles died just because they were Poles. “These killings raise unambiguous protest in Polish soci...

4.02.2010, 09:54 The hysterical statement by Tymoshenko on claiming that yesterday actions by Verkhovna Rada to amend the election laws to protect the right to vote are undemocratic and undermine the integrity of the elections is outright deceitful. The legislation passed by the Verkhovna Rada yesterday was submitted on the 27th of January and was meant to fix a deficiency in the current election law regarding the organization and operations of the District Election Commissions (DECs) and Precinct Election Commissions (PECs). Under current law there is a 2/3 quorum requirement for the PECs and DECs to function, including opening the polls on election day and counting the ballots. In the Second Round of a Presidential election, each of the two candidates proposes 50% of the members of the DECs and PECs. This allows one of the parties to undermine the process by denying a quorum. The Second Round of the Presidential election is the only election where this is possible because in all...

Dear compatriots! Several hour ago an extraordinary events took place in the Verkhovna Rada. Three days to the elections, the presidential election law was amended, thus fully destroying the presidential elections – making them fraudulent, dishonest and uncontrollable. This was done because Yanukovych doesn’t believe in his victory, and wants to achieve this result only through fraud. Until these unacceptable changes were made, election commissions were formed on a parity principle – half of the commission representing Yanukovych, and the other half me. And this gave hope that the results would be monitored and controlled. However, the amendments to the law, which were made in violation of all parliamentary rules, essentially destroyed parliamentarism and equal control over the elections. And now, according to this law, members of election commissions can be kicked out without a court ruling and the commissions can be comprised of members from only one candidate I believe this thr...

Ukraine's outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko has signed the new law on the Presidential election and a hysterical struggle for power has played out with Tymoshenko trying to prevent the publication of the law by commanding the Government printing presses in a desperate pathetic attempt to prevent the promulgation of the law. The basis for Tymoshenko's opposition on the new law is questionable as is her reaction.  The issue of concern over the quorum requirements only comes into effect if she and her party are planning on disrupting the election by not attending meetings and fulfilling their obligations. It only becomes an issue if Tymoshenko does not participate.  She is not being denied the right of representation. Tymoshenko's is being hysterical and is losing international respect at a fast rate of knots.  Party of Regions and the Parliament is not at fault in supporting this change. Tymoshenko's latest hysterics and call for a new Maidan is a cover up for he...

This latest gaff of Tymoshenko's has ruled her out of contention.  Three days before the final parade the clown will not go on. Instead of facing the audience she has walked off the set.  She can not make a comeback and may even have to give up her role in the other show. There is no logic or justification for the primadonna stunt she has tried to pull other then the fact that she knows she can not win. Even Yushchenko who was in a unwinnable position from  the start did not admit defeat before the first round ballot.   The Presidential circus parade  has cost over one billion dollars to stage. Yanukovych was criticized for not participating in the the lead up parade and now Tymoshenko is refusing to go on and participate in the final parade.  She did the same thing in Ternopil when she pulled out of that race. In the process she has betrayed not only those who supported her but Ukraine.  She will not be able to recover from this latest disas...

Ukraine's incumbent Prime-minister and candidate for the president Yulia Tymoshenko has admitted defeat and declared the election is over . Faced with knowing that she has lost the campaign she has embarked on another display of Yuilaism where she has sought to blame things that have nothing to do with her failure to win the election as the reason for her loss. She failed to win confidence of the Ukrainian people,  her antics today will  only reduce her standing. The amendments to the law on elections reduced the quota required to hold meetings of the regional election committees.  This is not a big deal and was deemed necessary to prevent misuse and abuse by political factions/candidate representatives walking out knowing that their candidate had lost the election.  A lower quorum does not prevent her or her team from attending meetings or fulfilling their duties. Tymoshenko is using this latest change as an excuse to justify her loss as she has been makin...

Tymoshenko runs the risk of embarrassing herself on the world stage, giving her opponent, Yanukovych, a free kick at an open goal The Ukrainian parliament has amended the law of the Presidential elections by reducing the quorum for meeting of the Electoral Commissions regional broads from two-thirds to fifty percent.  The amendments were designed to limit concern that the various candidates would seek to delay and disrupt the consist of the election by breaking quorum.  Tymoshenko was quick to falsely claim that the amendments would undermine the validity of the election.  They do not.  In fact the amendments that were approved  place a greater expectation on the candidates and political parties to fulfill their obligations by participating  in the deliberations of the electoral commission. The amendments are not unreasonable and are in line with western democracies standards and expectations.  Tymoshenko runs the serious risk of not being ta...

Ukraine must make a choice between the best of two evils . Voting against all serves no purpose.  A vote against all would only exacerbate Ukraine's problems and cause further instability and hardship. The whole concept of the presidential system is seriously flawed, the direct election of Ukraine's head of state only serves to divided Ukraine not unite it.  Ukraine would be better off if it abandoned the presidential system and adopted a full European parliamentary system of governance.  But this is not the case now, like it or not Ukraine's next president will be elected on Sunday. Voting "against all" is an option that Ukraine can not afford It is in Ukraine's best interest that the person elected has a clear mandate.  Ukrainians must vote for one or the other. Tymoshenko or Yanukovych.   To do otherwise is putting at risk Ukraine's future and stability as an independent nation.

13:50 | Interfax-Ukraine Ukraine's Jewish community is outraged by the decision to confer the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously to nationalist leader Stepan Bandera, with Chief Rabbi Moshe Reuven Asman of Ukraine and Kyiv saying he would give up his Order of Merit in protest. "The chief rabbi has asked our lawyers to find out how the order could be returned from a legal point of view," Asman's aide David Milman told Interfax on Feb. 2. "This position is shared by the entire Jewish community. Everyone is outraged. [Outgoing President] Viktor Yuschenko could not venture this step as long as he was hoping to remain president," he said. "This award is a call for war, as war was Bandera's credo," Milman said. Yushchenko conferred the title of Hero of Ukraine, one of the country's highest honors, to Bandera on Jan. 22, which marks the Day of Unity. This title had earlier been conferred on Commander of the Ukrainian Insurgent A...

Part of democracy is the ability of a state and political force to accept defeat as well as they accept winning. Sunday's presidential election could end in civil unrest as the losing party refuses to accept the out come of the election. There are reports of planned military style action designed to disrupt the final ballot in the making. Reports of para military agents imported from Georgia , Poland and  Lithuania by Ukraine's Prime-minister, the possible engagement of Tatars in Crimea and plans for mass protests and civil action to arrest power. To add to the tension Ukraine incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko, who was defeated in the first round of voting, is waiting in the sidelines and could be called on to declare a state of emergency if things appear to be getting out of hand. If Sunday becomes Ukraine's Bloody Sunday Yushchenko may use this as an excuse to declare a State of Emergency and implement a planned presidential coup.  It is even feasible tha...

The Ukrainian Parliament has convened its sixth regular session . It's commencement has triggered a number of events. Missing but not forgotten Constitutional reform - Removal of parliamentary immunity from Criminal prosecution. The main issue that should be before the parliament is the proposed amendments for Ukraine's constitution that removes Parliamentary immunity for criminal liability.  Amendments to the Constitution were agreed to and forwarded to the Ukraine's Constitutional Court for review. Under the terms of Ukraine's Constitution (Chapter XIII) the Parliament had to wait until the next regular session before it could finally pass the the proposed amendments.  With the commencement of a new session these amendments can not be passed. Strangely enough there is no mention of the proposed amendments on the agenda papers and the constitutional Court has still not delivered its decision.  These amendments should have been before the parliament this we...

Weather outlook for Kyiv Sunday February 7   Day Snow High 1°C Precip 70% Last Updated Monday, Feb 1, 8:41 AM Local Time

Based on analysis of the first round presidential vote held on January 17. Yulia Tymoshenko was the highest polling candidate in 15 Oblasts/regions including Kyiv Metro region with 4.8 Million votes Viktor Yanukovych was the highest polling candidate in 11 Oblasts/regions including Svestopol with a total of 6.8 million votes. Oblasts and regions are not equal in size or the number of constituents. The smallest region has less then 500,000 voters and the largest over 3 million.    Under Yushchenko's proposed Senate Tymoshenko (not including the additional senator representing Ukrainians abroad and the ex-offico ex-presidents' seats for life) would have elected 45 Senators (3 senators per region) and Yanukovych who had 1.4 times Tymoshenko's vote would have elected only 33 Senators. The remaining 12 million (over 50%) constituents would have been unrepresented.