Friday, February 26, 2010

Bye Bye Yushchenko: Our Ukraine once again threaten coalition stability

With Viktor Yushchenko finally removed from office. not before he managed to make some rather controversial appointments in the days before his departure, the president's party Our Ukraine-Peoples' Self Defence have signaled that they will be entering negotiations with Party of Regions and Boc Lytvyn to form a new governing coalition

Our Ukraine try to resurrect 2006's failed negotiations for a boards coalition and again on their terms.

A new governing coalition can only be formed with the support of either Bloc Tymoshenko or Our Ukraine Peoples' Self Defense. (Article 83 of Ukraine's Constitution limits formation of a governing coalition to factions not individuals)  This has given both parties considerable power and influence in the "new" government.  Our Ukraine are demanding a new premier and have proposed that they hold the prime minister's position.  They have effectively revisited their actions of the past.  In 2006 Our Ukraine triggered then collapse of the Orange revolution by refusing to support an Orange coalition whilst trying to negotiating a coalition with party of regions.  Their failure to support an Orange government back then cost them government and was the start of their own demise and betrayal of those who had supported Yushchenko;'s election.

The movement of truth and decision is soon at hand. Moves are afoot to fold a vote of no-confidence as early as next week upping the anti for negotiations

If Our Ukraine decide to support the no confidence motion then the fuse for the destruction of the government and dissolution of the parliament would be lit and Yanukovych will have the authority to dismiss the parliament after 30 days if a new coalition can not be formed.

Tymoshenko has tried to short circuit the horse trading by calling for a vote of no confidence in the government sooner rather then later a move that will place pressure on all sides most of whom would not want to see a new round of public elections. Lytvyn and Our Ukraine included.  With the level of voter fatigue so high all parties will suffer in the polls.

Yanukovych is also not prepared to hand over power to Our Ukraine who have little to offer and have proven in the past to be an unreliable coalition partner.  A coalition between Our Ukraine and Party of Regions would not be stable and fought with many conflicts.  It would also add strength to Bloc Tymoshenko should an election be forced in the not too distant future.

The other option, which if it can be achieved would deliver much more positive results would be a broad coalition that involves Tymoshenko. Tymoshenko although battered by the experience and outcome of the presidential election is not yet defeated.  She still commands a position of considerable power not just in government but within the parliament. Without Tymoshenko's support much needed Constitutional reform will be difficult if not outright impossible to achieve. Tymoshenko also has the means of calling a snap election in October by once again resigning her mandate and canceling the elections list should a coalition between Our Ukraine and Party of regions be formed to topple her government. 

A vote on the  future of Ukraine's government is expected to take place next week and it is then that Ukraine's Parameter must decide its position form a new coalition and face elections or keep the existing government and still face elections.

With Yushchenko removed from office Our Ukraine face the real prospect of being a divided force and one that will not survive the next election.