Sunday, February 21, 2010

Tymoshenko withdraws in the face of defeat

Tymoshenko has withdrawn her legal challenge to the Ukrainian 2010 Presidential election paving the way for Yanukovych inauguration on February 25.

Tymoshenko was never going to win the court battle and her allegation of corruption in the court process is another example of how one day she places her faith in the people of Ukraine and the system only to reject that faith when it is obvious she was not winning.

Tymoshenko has suffered a loss as a result of her actions the question is to what extent.

With February 25 out of the way and Yanukovych instead as President the next challenge she will face is a vote of no confidence in her government.

A number of factors will come into play not the least that if fresh parliamentary elections are held Ukraine will once again enter into a period of instability and political campaigning.  many existing members of parliament will not be returned if fresh elections are held. Lytvyn runs the risk of falling believe the 3% representation threshold as does Our Ukraine.

last minute efforts to try and secure agreement and support for a brad coalition will fail as a new coalition can only be formed with the agreement of either bloc Tymoshenko or Our Ukraine - Peoples Self Defense.  Under Ukraine's current constitution (Article 83) it is factions not individuals that form the governing coalition,  If both Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine-Peoples Self defence reject a brad coalition with party of Regions then the supply of no confidence is the next attempt if that fails Yanukovich needs to palan for a forced election in October.

Fresh parliamentary elections will deliver the balance of power to Tigipko who will be in a strong position to decide who will govern Ukraine.

This will deliver government but will not resolve the main problems of instability facing Ukraine and the need for Ukraine to adopt constitutional reform.

A coalition between Tymoshenko and party of regions would be the way to go but it is hard to see such an alliance coming into existence.  The opportunity for such has been lost.

Ideally Ukraine would amend its constitution and then hold fresh parliamentary elections, but this is also unlikely to happen in the near future.

The good news is that some February 25, Viktor Yushchenko will no longer be in office.

The sad news is that Yanukovych now he has been elected President will not want to give up power and will most likely no longer support Ukraine becoming a full Parliamentary system of government.