Ukraine Today - An Independent Political Review

In just Seven days time Ukraine will go to the polls in what is their fourth national ballot since Viktor Yushchenko took office. Yushchenko having lost in the first round vote is now engaged in a campaign of revenge and has offered his support to his past rival Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych remains in poll position and is most likely to win next week’s final ballot. At the end of the first round ballot held on January 17, Yanukovych on 35.32% was 10 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival current Prime Minister and heroine of the Orange revolution Yulia Tymoshenko. The decision as who will win the final ballot will be determined by the second choice vote of 36% who supported other minor candidates. The turn out on January 17 was also at the lower end of expectation and an additional 5-7 million Ukrainians (20%) could be motivated to cast a ballot in the final round. Expectation is that Tymoshenko will fall short by 5% points. Early results will show just how close it rea...

Yushchenko’s decree “legalizes state terrorism and murder” because Stepan Bandera led “the killings of school directors, teachers, and law enforcement officials.” Ukraine's defeated Presidential candidate ,Viktor Yushchenko has in the dying days of his office declared  Stepan Bandera a national hero.  There was no consensus or legislative review of the presidents decree. Bandera and his organisation of "Ukrainian Nationalists" supported Hitler and his invasion of Ukraine and Russia during the second world war.  His collaboration resulted in the mass murder of  thousands if not millions of people. Yushchenko continues to bring himself and Ukraine into disrepute.   Viktor Yushchenko lost office when he was defeated having only received 5.45%  of the vote during the first round of the Presidential elections held on January 17, 2010. Present day Ukrainian Nationalist  movement is headed by  Australian Stepan Romaniv. Jews w...

Wiesenthal slams Ukraine award to nationalist Today at 16:49 | Associated Press    A prominent Jewish human rights organization has criticized the Ukrainian president's decision to give a posthumous award to a nationalist leader it describes as a Nazi collaborator. The Simon Wiesenthal Center said in a statement Friday that Stepan Bandera and his followers were linked to the deaths of thousands of Jews in World War II's early stages. President Viktor Yushchenko on Wednesday bestowed the Hero of Ukraine award to Stepan Bandera for his role in fighting for an independent Ukraine. Wednesday was Holocaust Remembrance Day. Mark Weitzman, the center's government affairs director, says it was a travesty to grant the honor as the world paused "to remember the victims of the Holocaust on Jan. 27." A Yushchenko spokesman declined comment.

Extract from Open Democracy Ukraine’s Window of Opportunity 16 January 2009 It should be noted that not only Moscow’s “political technologists,” but also a number of serious international political scientists advocate presidentialism, and see this form of democracy as superior to parliamentary systems – the world’s oldest democracy, the US, being the obvious example. However, concerning the specific challenges that young democracies are facing, study after study have shown that the stronger a new republic’s parliament is the better the chances are that genuine political pluralism will survive and that the novel system of government will consolidate. Notably, these findings are not outcomes of theoretical considerations by experts who may have a preference for this or that form of government. Instead, the inference that parliamentarianism is better for an emerging democracy than a presidential or semi-presidential system is based on empirical research...

Angus and Read is reporting a poll undertaken by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute . It shows  Viktor Yanukovych 55.9% Yulia Tymoshenko 40.7% Against all candidates 3.4% Source: Kyiv International Sociology Institute Methodology: Interviews with 2,002 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Jan. 4 to jan. 13, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent. This poll is hard to believe because for one it is missing the informal vote which was recorded at 1.65% not to forget Vasyl Protyvsikh vote (0.16%) in the first round, which often is rolled up into the Against All (2.21%) classification, The Poll also does not include the estimated participation rate which is equally important. Our Analysis of the first round vote indicates that the poll will be much more closer then the 15% gap indicated. For Yanukovych to to increase his vote by 20 percentage points and Tymoshenko only by 15 percentage points would indicate that...

When analysing the outcome of Ukraine's elections you need to take into consideration the distribution of population. Ukraine's western regions are less populated then in the East or South. This is clearly shown in the first round total vote distribution map. Donetsk is the most populous region with just over 10% of the total vote. followed by Kyiv region (which is divided administratively into two regions - Metro Kiev and the Oblast Kiev), next comes Dnipropetrovsk then Lviv and Kharkov, Lugansk and Odessa. Crimea. It is with the overall population/total vote distribution in mind that you can then  look at the distribution of each candidates political support. The maps below show the  distribution of the five main candidates shaded to reflect the percentage of the total vote recorded for each regions.  It is only by displaying the correlation to the total vote that you can get a true indication of the extent of each candidates support Maps that show you the hig...

Can Tymoshenko secure a deal with Sergei Tigipko to go on and win the final election?  Whilst in theory it is possible the odds are against Tymoshenko who remains the underdog with Viktor Yanukovych retaining poll position. Problems facing Tymoshenko   1. Tigipko does not have a natural constituency, he is not able to influence voters choice as to who is their preferred candidate in the second round ballot.  they voted for him personally not his party/organisation. 2. Most if not all voters have already decided who they will support. The second round is a wast of time and limited resources. Ukraine should have adopted a single round preferential ballot system, had they done so  the results of the election would be known by now. 3. Review of Tigipoko's support distribution indicates that his votes were located  in the South East and Kviv metro regions. His votes came predominately from Party of Regions, The Socialist Party and the Communist Part...

Viktor Yanukovych (34.32%) did not win the first round. He is the highest vote holder only. In order to win he needed 50% or more votes. Both Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych will progress into the second final round, If you combine Tymoshenko (25.05%), Yatseniuk (6.96%) and Yushchenko (5.45%), Hristenko (1.20%) and Tyahnybok (1.43%) - "The Orange alliance" they represent collectively 40.1% Tigipko (13.06%) Communist (3.55%) Lytvyn (2.35%) Others (1.78%) Against all (2.2%) Informal (1.6%) The two round voting system is a endurance race not a sprint. The campaign has just began.    Yanukovych is in poll position and Yulia is the underdog. Yanukovych has been holding back his money and resources knowing full well he will be in a final contest ballot. Much depends on what Yushchenko does and who his supporters will back in the final contest.  We can assume that the Communists Party will back Yanukovych but not all. Lytvn will split 50/40/10 giving ...

The Economist has an excellent article in review of Ukraine's modern political history The Swing analysis between the 2004 presidential election, 2007 Parliamentary election and last Sundays vote shows that there has been little overall movement in voters support/allegiance in Ukraine. Whilst in theory the election could be close much of it depends on the split of secondary alternative support from Minor candidates who did not make it into the final round ballot. Ukrainian banker turn presidential candidate Oleh Tihipko ( Whom two of my good friends in Kyiv who work in the banking sector voted for ) spent over 100 million dollars in his campaign with much of his support coming from Kyiv and the Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine. Dnepropetrovsk being his strongest region. (See voter distribution maps below). The real issue and problem with Ukraine finding its stability, was its decision to retain the soviet style presidential system. Had Ukraine adopted a parliamentary...

showing the swing from 2004 to 2010 (first round votes) based on the percentage of the total national vote for each candidate/group per region for each election. Yanukovych, Moroz and Symonenko are direct comparison, candidate to candidate.  We have combined  the vote of Yulia Tymoshenko, Yatseniuk, Yushchenko, Tyahnybok, Hrytsenko and Kostenko in order give a comparison to Yushchenko's 2004 vote.  (We are not sure if we did the right thing by including Tyahnybok, You be the judge - Private Feedback Welcome) It is just indicative but it does give some idea where the vote to other candidates came from and went. Tigipko in particular. Update: We have also produced below a  Swing comparison with the 2007 election results . Yushchenko, Yatsenyuk, Hrytsenko and Kostenko have been combined to represent the comparison to OU-PSD (Our Ukraine) result in 2007. You can down load the xml files behind the Virtual Electoral Map and import the data into MS Access if yo...

The first round ballot results show Viktor Yanukovych, leader of the Parliamentary Opposition, with 35.33% leading Yulia Tymoshenko, Prime Minister of Ukraine, who is on 25.05%. Yanukovych has a lead of 10.28% over Tymoshenko both will face off in a second round ballot scheduled for February 7, 2010. In order to win the election Yulia Tymoshenko would need to pick up two out of every three alternative " secondary " votes from minor candidates supported in the first round ballot. This is a huge task and is unlikely to be achieved as a number of defeated minor candidates including Viktor Yushchenko and Anatoliy Hrytsenko have indicated that will be advocating that their supporters vote "Against All" in the second ballot. Every additional vote for  "Against All"  option is effectively a vote for Yanukovych as it will make it that much harder for Tymoshenko to breach the 10.4% gap. Click here to view the Virtual Electoral Map

Candidate 99% Counted Viktor Yanukovych 35.38% Yulia Tymoshenko 25.01% Serhiy Tihipko 13.05% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.95% Viktor Yushchenko 5.45% Petro Symonenko 3.55% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.35% Oleh Tyahnybok 1.43% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.20% Inna Bohoslovska 0.41% Oleksandr Moroz 0.38% Yuriy Kostenko 0.22% Liudmyla Suprun 0.19% Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.16% Oleksandr Pabat 0.14% Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.12% Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.60% Oleh Riabokon 0.03% Against all 2.20% If the above vote held in a parliamentary election this would translate into Party Seats PoR 178 BYuT 126 Tigipko 66 Y-Front 35 OU 27 CPU 18 450

The biggest loser was of course Yushchenko who only managed to secure 4.87%. Preliminary analysis of the polling results indicates that Yanukovych is in a strong position to win the second round ballot. Tigipko's Thirteen percent was mainly concentrated in the South Eastern sectors.(with over 82% of the protocols counted Tigipko secured 1.86 percent of the overall vote from Dnipropetrovsk,  Kyiv Metro - 1.1%, Kharkiv - 1.08% , Odesa - 0.9% ) Yanukovych also has a stronger then expected showing in some of the Western regions. The cold weather and voter disillusionment had also contributed to a lower then expected turnout All indications are that Yushchenko and Our Ukraine having lost the election are now embarking on a "trash and burn" Take the ball and run exercise in advocating that voters to vote "against all" in the run-up ballot. Such a proposal would have a serious negative impact and would only secure a win for Yanukovych who is already in poll pos...

At just overt 50.36% of the polling places counted: (11021832 votes) Candidate 50% Counted Viktor Yanukovych 36.75% Yulia Tymoshenko 24.47% Serhiy Tihipko 13.05% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.79% Viktor Yushchenko 4.85% Petro Symonenko 3.67% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.43% Against all 2.23% Oleh Tyahnybok 1.30% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.17% Inna Bohoslovska 0.43% Oleksandr Moroz 0.42% Yuriy Kostenko 0.22% Liudmyla Suprun 0.19% Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.17% Oleksandr Pabat 0.14% Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.13% Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.06% Oleh Riabokon 0.03% Progressive Election Results Click here to view

Click here to view Our Virtual Map is up and running and we hope to update it every 30 minuets. Update: 44.18% counted

The first official results of the Ukrainian presidential election will be available in six- or seven hours, member of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission (CEC) Donchenko said. As soon as they become available will be updating our online virtual tally board. Link to official results: Tally Board

The Democratic Initiative a US funded think tank update National Exit Poll data as of 23:00 of the results of voting by the constituents of Ukraine on January 17, 2010: Candidate Democratic Initiative National Exit Poll Viktor Yanukovych 31.3% Yulia Tymoshenko 27.1% Serhiy Tihipko 13.4% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 7.8% Viktor Yushchenko 6.0% Petro Symonenko 2.7% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.4% Oleh Tyahnybok 2.1% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.6% Oleksandr Moroz 0.5% Inna Bohoslovska 0.4% Serhiy Ratushnyak 0.2% Liudmyla Suprun 0.2% Yuriy Kostenko 0.2% Vasyl Protyvsikh 0.1% Oleksandr Pabat 0.1% Oleh Riabokon 0.1% Mykhailo Brodskiy 0.0% Against all 2.8% The National Exit Poll 2010 Consortium is made up of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) and the Oleksandr Raz...

Summary of exit polls Candidate Research & Branding Ukrainian Institute of Social Studies ICTV Savik Shuster Studio Inter TV channel Viktor Yanukovych 37.7% 34.7% 35.0% 34.7% 36.6% Yulia Tymoshenko 26.1% 24.8% 25.7% 25.0% 25.8% Serhiy Tihipko 11.6% 11.5% 13.4% 13.2% 13.5% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 7.9% 8.9% 6.9% 7.1% 6.6% Viktor Yushchenko 5.1% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% 5.2% Petro Symonenko 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0%

It is over. Ukraine has spoken and in doing so had sounded a strong rejection to President Victor Yushchenko's polices of divisions and destabilization, ending his five years of terror and betrayal of democratic values. It cost over one billion dollars and still is not yet over, but the first round of voting in the Presidential election has delivered Ukraine a massive victory and a sound defeat for Yushchenko. The results of the exit polls reflect early predictions and the 2007 Parliamentary results. Victor Yanukovych leads the race with 34.7-37.7% of the vote followed by Yulia Tymoshenko with 24.8-26.1% In what was seen as a referendum on Victor Yushchenko's term of office Yushchenko has only managed to return 5.1-5.8%. The first round was not even close. Our Ukraine failed to win support, Yushchenko was never in a position to come close to out polling Yulia Tymoshenko. Combined Our Ukraine only just held on to their 12% to 14% they won in the 2006/2007 election. Whilst it ...

Analysis: by Adrian Karatnycky New Atlanticist Policy and Analysis The Atlantic Council, Wash, D.C., Fri, 15 January 2010 NEW YORK - Ukraine votes in the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, January 17th.  Ukraine does not permit the release of polling data in the two weeks prior to the contest.  But I have obtained reliable polling data from colleagues, based on polling conducted last week for internal use by campaign officials, which suggests that Viktor Yanukovych leads incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko by 8 to 10 percent, a narrowing from two weeks ago, when Yanuokvych led by 12 to 15 percent: Candidate Support Viktor Yanukovych 34.00% Yulia Tymoshenko 24.50% Serhiy Tihipko 12.50% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.50% Viktor Yushchenko 5.50% Petro Symonenko 4.00% Volodymyr Lytvyn 3.50% Oleh Tyahnybok 2.00% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.00% ...

Polling has opened in Ukraine to elect Ukraine's next head of state in what has been touted as being a referendum on incumbent Viktor Yushehnko's last five years since the events of 2004 Orange Revolution Viktor Yushchenko has seventeen candidates, four from his own political faction, running against him.  Yushchenko is expected to lose in the first round of voting with his rival Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko making to the second round of voting scheduled for February 7, 2010. Polling closes at 6:00PM tonight and first exit polls are expected to be announced at 8:00PM

First round vote on Viktor Yushchenko's fate to be determined today in what is a referendum on his term of office. Seventeen candidates in total are running against him, four from his own political faction. Yushchenko's party Our Ukraine normally receives around 14% of the national vote.  The polls have him pegged on around 4%. Yushchenko has never been in a winning position even with 14% he would not be re-elected. The combined support of all candidates associated with Our Ukraine is less then 12% according to the recent polls. That's 2% less then the 2006 and 2007 Parliamentary elections. Yushchenko's forces are divided.  Every vote for another candidate is one vote less for Yushchenko. He will be judged on the extent of his support  and every percentage point he falls below 14% . His first hurdle will be to out poll Yatseniuk. Arseniy Yatseniuk has lost a lot of ground over the course of the campaign.  He started out with around 11% to 14% and headed sou...

Sunday January 17, 2010. Polling has commenced: 08:00 Polls open in Ukraine. 07:00 Polls open in Russia 03:00 Thailand 00:00 Vladivostok.and Japan is eight hours ahead. -01:00 Australia, Australia's Capital Terrority is nine hours ahead of Ukrainian time

In 24 hours time Ukraine should know the outcome of the 2010 Presidential election.  Yushchenko will have lost office and the two highest polling candidates will progress to the second round of voting.  According to rumours the ballot papers for the second round have already been printed and distributed.  All expectations are that Viktor Yanukovych will face off against Yulia Tymoshenko in what will be seen as the battle of the titans. Ukraine will begin to celebrate the news that "The president is defeated long live the new president".  Only 2 more hours before the new year really starts with a tigers roar. If your are undecided who to support we suggest you make your vote count and vote for Tymoshenko in the first round.  Why you may ask. well we feel that Tymoshenko will most likely support Ukraine adopting a parliamentary system of governance.  In our view this is the main criteria and step forward that Ukraine can make.  One important step for...

Betting on the outcome of the presidential election is a safer bet then a horse race. NO MORE BETS: 8:00AM - Betting has closed as election is in play. UPDATE: 4:10 Kyiv time The betting score is now  Yanukovych 2/5, Tymoshenko 17/10, Tigipko 8, Yushchenko remains on 24 with no change in all other candidates According to the latest betting score  Candidate Bet Score Viktor Yanukovych 5/11 Yulia Tymoshenko 11/17 Serhiy Tigipko 9 Viktor Yushchenko 24 Arseniy Yatsenyuk 49 Volodymyr Lytvyn 99 Petro Symonenko 99 Inna Bogoslovska 299 Oleh Tyahnybok 299 Anatoliy Hrytsenko 299 Others 299 The punters are betting on a Tymoshenko win with Yanukovych offering the best odds for someone who is guaranteed to be in the final round contest.

Ukraine's president has to much power. Powers, as we saw, that were often misused and abused. The 2004/5 constitutional amendments were a step in the right direction and yes they were a compromise. The president powers should have had less power. Both Tymochenko and Yanukovych have been giving mixed singles.  One hand they say they support Ukraine adopting a European model of parliamentary democracy on the other they advocate a return to Presidential authority. The fact remains that the presidential system has and will forever fail Ukraine, dividing the nation and in the process undermining its independence and stability. The previous parliament and government lead by Viktor Yanukovych was stable and effective. There was no basis or legal grounds for its dismissal. But so would have been  a Orange coalition had Yushchenko and Our Ukraine not sold it out. Tymoshenko's government has never been given a chance to govern. It was undermined by Yushchenko at every step. ...

The Moscow Times has a brief, yet interesting, summary  of the potential outcome of Sunday's Ukrainian Presidential election. It glosses over the shift on power and the balances that will remain, in the short term at least. It does make a strong point in its closing paragraph ... whoever wins will likely change Ukraine’s constitution, which as currently constructed virtually guarantees perpetual conflicts between the president and prime minister. Experts generally agree that a presidential system is worse than a parliamentary one, but they also agree that a mixed presidential-parliamentary system such as Ukraine’s is by far the worst. The best option would be for Ukraine to adopt a full parliamentary model in line with other European States. The question is who will undertake this challenge and sacrifice presidential power and authority for the sake of the nation.  The answer to this question is the person who should be elected president  

Campaigning in the first round of the presidential election concludes tonight at 12 midnight Kyiv time The election has been pretty much a non-event.  No real earth shattering poll busting events over the last two weeks, Certainly not enough to warrant a change of expectation in the outcome of the election. There has been a lot of two and throw bantering, allegations of corruption, vote rigging and deals done.  The most dramatic being a deal between Yushchenko and Yanukovych to secure a place for Yushchenko's men in the inevitable changing of the guard. Come 12 midnight the campaigning comes to an end.  Well that depends if you consider a Party of Regions proposed rally on the 16th not part of the campaign.  Polls open at 8AM on Sunday January 17 and close at 6PM.  Early results should begin to be known at around 9 to 10PM with a good indication of the likely outcome by 4PM on the Monday. Then it starts up again with the two highest polling candidates ba...

There are reports in the media that advertisements have been placed where Ukrainians have offered to sell their votes for a sum of 100 to 500 hryvnia. Whilst this is good media copy (designed to sell news more then votes) the suggestion that anyone would be in a position to sell their vote let alone someone buying it is beyond reason and reality. The reasons are simple.  In order to influence the change in the election you would need to buy 5 to 10 percent of the electorate. - One to two million votes. There are not enough votes out there for sale, at a cost of 500 million to  one billion. Second and most important you would never know if the vote you had bought was delivered and who failed to deliver it. This is a joke, an electoral scam that is no different then the candidate that changed his name to "Against all". A bit like selling/buying property on the moon it can never be realized. Jamestown Foundation has published this summary of vote allegations Quote:...

The long range weather forecast for Kyiv January 17, 2010   10-Day Forecast High / Low (°C) Precip. % Tonight Jan 10 Rain / Snow 0° 90 % Mon Jan 11 Rain / Snow 1°/-4° 90 % Tue Jan 12 Snow Shower -3°/-10° 70 % Wed Jan 13 AM Snow Showers -7°/-12° 30 % Thu Jan 14 Cloudy -8°/-12° 10 % Fri Jan 15 Cloudy -8°/-11° 10 % Sat Jan 16 Partly Cloudy -8°/-11° 10 % Sun Jan 17 Sunny -8°/-11° 10 % Mon Jan 18 Partly Cloudy -5°/-11° 10 % Tue Jan 19 Cloudy -3°/-7° 10 % Last Updated Jan 10 12:14 p.m. Local Time

Western Ukrainian Media (zik.com.ua) has a good overview commentary on the outcome of the first round.  Much of it reflects what we have been saying for  months. The first round of voting is not a contest and third place is a losing position.  Yushchenko will come fifth at best behind Yanukovych, Tymoshenko Yatseniuk and Tigipko. Even if Ukraine had a preferential voting system Yushchenko would still lose out with a maximum support of 10% to 12%. In a preferential voting system Tigipko might have had a chance of coming up the middle but this is just theory as Ukraine sadly does not use the single round preferential voting system. Quote: Andry Yermolayev: no point to discuss the third runner. In 2009 politicians and the media did everything to focus the attention on two favorites, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, who will probably make it to Round 2. As regards the third-place runner, it is no use to forecast who he will be. In the presidential election only the first pl...

There is a lot of talk around that this deal or that deal has been made. Whilst deals are possible in seeking political positions or appointments the fact is they can not deliver. Most do not have loyal natural constituencies. They can not direct their supporters to transfer their votes. Tigipko, who is expected to come in third behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovych, support base will split between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych in the second round. The same with the Communist and to a lessor degree Yatseniuk. Yastensenik can not transfer his support to Yushchenko many would opt to support Tymoshenko is he pulled out at the last minute. Yushchenko himself can not direct his own support base which in the second round is expected to also split down the middle in the second round Example "Split analysis" Using the survey conducted by U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems and financed by the United States Agency for International Development. and a conser...

With seven days until the January 17 Ukrainian Presentism election there has been no catalytic event or shit in public opinion. There is no real contest at this stage of the election. Viktor Yanukovych is assured to progress into the second round with Yulia Tymoshenko in second place. There has been a lot of political banter about a deal between Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych with Yushchenko seeking a safe haven for his "leading lights" team of political elite to ensure that they still have a job come February. Yushchenko is set to be the biggest loser with 17 candidates running against him. 16 candidates including Yushchenko will not make the grade and will fall well below the 10% mark and at bes5 manage to secure 5%. Yushchenko has tried hard to force other candidates to pull out in the hope that it would bolster his fledgling support. Even if he managed to have Yatseniuk and Hrensko pull and their supporter's to back him (a big ask given the extent ...