Presidential election to be a referendum on Yushchenko's term of office

By Online Editor -
First round vote on Viktor Yushchenko's fate to be determined today in what is a referendum on his term of office.

Seventeen candidates in total are running against him, four from his own political faction.

Yushchenko's party Our Ukraine normally receives around 14% of the national vote.  The polls have him pegged on around 4%.

Yushchenko has never been in a winning position even with 14% he would not be re-elected. The combined support of all candidates associated with Our Ukraine is less then 12% according to the recent polls. That's 2% less then the 2006 and 2007 Parliamentary elections.

Yushchenko's forces are divided.  Every vote for another candidate is one vote less for Yushchenko. He will be judged on the extent of his support  and every percentage point he falls below 14% . His first hurdle will be to out poll Yatseniuk.

Arseniy Yatseniuk has lost a lot of ground over the course of the campaign.  He started out with around 11% to 14% and headed south to a low of 6%.

Voting commences at 8:00 AM local time and end at 18:00.  The first exit polls are expected to be released at around 20:00 Kyiv time.  Voting will still be in play in Canada and the United States.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Dissecting the vote: Zakarpattia and Ternopil

By Online Editor -
Two interesting outcomes in the final round vote that have not been widely discussed in the English media is the outcome in Zakarpattia and Ternopil. We are not sure if it has been been discussed in the Ukrainian media 1. Viktor Yanukovych was the highest polling candidate in Zakarpattiia previsoully Our Ukraine/Yushchenko were the highest. (See 2004,2006 and 2007 election results ) District 74 місто Берегове (Beregove - a Hungarian community located near the border) 2. The other interesting observation is that Yanukovych actually went backwards between the first round and the second round in Ternopiil.  In the first round Yanukovych received 6354 (0.26% of the national vote) in the second final round, with less number of candidates, Yanukovych recorded only 5370 (0.21% of the national vote)  Why Yanukovych went backwards in the second round is any ones guess but we think this  would make interesting reading.
<Additional Information>

Averting a Post-Orange Disaster - Andreas Umland

By Online Editor -
"As Ukraine's economic, social and political crisis sharpens, more and more Ukrainians may question the wisdom of conducting a costly presidential election when the Ukrainian state is almost bankrupt--if not on the brink of collapse." Constitutional Reforms and Political Stability in Ukraine by Dr. Andreas Umland Source: Harvard International Review June, 2009 After several years of impressive economic growth and encouraging political change, Ukraine has recently entered troubled waters. The democracies west of Ukraine are institutionally consolidated and internationally embedded enough to circumscribe the political repercussions of their so far relatively mild economic contractions. While being hit almost as hard as Ukraine by the world financial crisis, Russia has managed to build considerable financial reserves thanks to the enormous cash inflow into her state budget during the years of rocketing energy prices, allowing her to soften the social repercussions of the eco...
<Additional Information>

History repeats: Victor Yushchenko interferes with Ukraine's judicial process.

By Online Editor -
The Kyiv Administrative court has issued a injunction suspending the Presidents decree dismissing Ukraine's democratically elected parliament. In what is reminiscent of events unfolded last year, Victor Yushchenko has again interfered with the independence of Ukraine's judiciary . In April 2007 the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe ( PACE ) passed a resolution in consideration of a report titled Functioning of democratic institutions in Ukraine . (Items 13 and 14) stated: “The Assembly deplores the fact that the judicial system of Ukraine has been systematically misused by other branches of power and that top officials do not execute the courts’ decisions, which is a sign of erosion of this crucial democratic institution. An independent and impartial judiciary is a precondition for the existence of a democratic society governed by the rule of law." The associated explanatory report under the sub-heading of Pressure on the courts expressed concern that ...
<Additional Information>