Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Dispelling part of the myth of east versus west in Ukrainian politics.

When analysing the outcome of Ukraine's elections you need to take into consideration the distribution of population. Ukraine's western regions are less populated then in the East or South. This is clearly shown in the first round total vote distribution map.

Donetsk is the most populous region with just over 10% of the total vote. followed by Kyiv region (which is divided administratively into two regions - Metro Kiev and the Oblast Kiev), next comes Dnipropetrovsk then Lviv and Kharkov, Lugansk and Odessa. Crimea.

It is with the overall population/total vote distribution in mind that you can then  look at the distribution of each candidates political support.

The maps below show the  distribution of the five main candidates shaded to reflect the percentage of the total vote recorded for each regions.  It is only by displaying the correlation to the total vote that you can get a true indication of the extent of each candidates support

Maps that show you the highest polling candidates based on the percentage of each candidate in relation to the regional vote are misleading.  The Ukrainian presidential election, unlike the US system where state delegation plays a major role in the outcome of the election, is not based on regions. Ukraine is a single state electorate that encompasses the whole country.  A regional map based on percentage per regional total  seriously as opposed to the overall total vote seriously distorts the statistics presented as each state is not equal in size and/or number of constituents. As candidates often have a broad base it is for this reason that we only present maps showing the percentage of the total vote  not regional summaries.