Friday, January 22, 2010

The race has only just began.

Viktor Yanukovych (34.32%) did not win the first round. He is the highest vote holder only. In order to win he needed 50% or more votes.

Both Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych will progress into the second final round,

If you combine Tymoshenko (25.05%), Yatseniuk (6.96%) and Yushchenko (5.45%), Hristenko (1.20%) and Tyahnybok (1.43%) - "The Orange alliance" they represent collectively 40.1%

Tigipko (13.06%)
Communist (3.55%)
Lytvyn (2.35%)
Others (1.78%)

Against all (2.2%)
Informal (1.6%)

The two round voting system is a endurance race not a sprint. The campaign has just began.   

Yanukovych is in poll position and Yulia is the underdog.

Yanukovych has been holding back his money and resources knowing full well he will be in a final contest ballot.

Much depends on what Yushchenko does and who his supporters will back in the final contest.  We can assume that the Communists Party will back Yanukovych but not all. Lytvn will split 50/40/10 giving his low turnout he will not want a Parliamentary election soon so he might prefer Tymoshenko. He has some influence over his support base.

Tigipko on the other hand has no natural support base his vote could split 40/40/20

If the "Orange alliance can hold ground then it is a close race.  But asking for solidarity is not something that will not occur naturally.

The odds are Yanukovych will be the highest polling candidate in the final ballot by 5% but he will fall below 50%.  The level of against all could be the difference between a very close battle and victory for Yanukovych.  Hrytsenko has ready called for an "Against all" vote in the second round. Will they listen? Only 2.2% plus 0.16% for Vasily Protyvsih support the "Against all" option  in round one

No matter the outcome the presidential election will continue to divide Ukraine and over 50% will not be represented.

The sooner Ukraine abandons the presidential system and follows in Estonia and Latvia lead by adopting a full parliamentary democracy the better.


jeff said...

whoever wins the election, i hope Ukraine will have the courage to join NATO and the west....we want Ukraine with us!!!, and besides, Putin is a snake who tries to poison everyone...

(saw your link on the Economist site) :)

Anonymous said...

The whole "west" east Russia stereotype thing is false as is the notion of Ukraine joining NATO. Ukraine needs neither. All it needs is a commitment to democratic reform and adoption of a parliamentary system of governance in line with other European States.

NATO is nothing but a puppet organization to the USA Europe needs to rethink its Security organisation and create a truly European Security organisation, one that is not dominated by US interests. One that is European in focus and includes both Ukraine and Russia. Russia is not the enemy the sooner some people realise this the better off every one will be.