Sunday, March 05, 2006

Poll and Local Party Viche

UIAN

Poll published March 2, 2006 UIAN


As of today, some 14% of Ukrainian citizens, who will take part in the election, have not decided as yet for which party or block to vote.

According to an UNIAN correspondent, these are the results of a poll, publicized at a press conference by Oleksander Stehney, expert of the Ukrainian Fund for Support of Reforms.

O.stehniy noted that, according to the poll, some 36% of those polled support the Party of Regions, some 20% - Our Ukraine block, some 14% - the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko, some 6.5% - the Socialist Party of Ukraine, some 3.2% - the People’s Block of Lytvyn, some 3.2% - PORA-PRO Civil Block, and some 3.1% - for the Block of Natalia Vitrenko “People’s Opposition”.

Director general of Socis Center of Social and Political Research Mykola Cheryl stressed that the list of the poll includes all parties and blocks, registered by the Central Electoral Commission. Besides, he informed that by the results of the poll, some 71-72% of electors are expected to take part in the parliamentary election.

The poll was conducted by “Socis” Center of Social and Political Investigations during February 22-26 of 2006. On the whole, 1200 respondents were polled. The error margin does not exceed 2.9%.


Comment:

The above poll shows a continuing variance in the percentage of vote allocated to major parties. Minor parties are picking up ground with Pora and Natalia Vitrenko "Peoples Opposition" both above the 3% threshold.

What the polls do not take into account is the regional variance. One party that is worthy of watching is "Party Viche". They have a strong base in Eastern Ukraine (Kharkiv) region. One commentator said they could also attract sufficient votes to reach the 3% threshold. Any poll should be weighed according to the population distribution fo each oblast.

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