Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Prenuptial negotiations

All Parties bunker down to consider their options: Constitutional Questions

Ukraine's Political power blocks are in the midst of deep thought as they await the official results of the election with 75 percent of the vote counted.

As of 14:00 pm today parties above 3%

Part of Regions 30.03%
Yulia Tymoshenko 22.51%
Our Ukraine 15.27%
Socialist Party 6.20%
Communist Party 3.57%

The vote percentage appears to shift like the sands passing through an hour glass.

Unfortunately the Central Election Commission information available on the internet does not provide detailed figures on by polling booth. This makes it difficult to know which booths and information is outstanding. Presumable overseas, absentee and postal ballots are still to arrive in the counting center

In the meantime the Major Parties are bunkered down contemplating there next moves.

On the surface of it the Orange Coalition has the potential of forming a new Government but questions about who gets what positions in any Orange coalition are far from certain.

Victor Yuschenko Our Ukraine Party have decide to bide their time and wait until the official results are known before committing to any coalition in the hope that they can negotiate and secure the appointment of Ukraine's Prime minster.

There is speculation that Our Ukraine could form an alliance with Party of Regions. Whilst this has some advantages to Ukraine's economy and stability of government it is unlikely that such an alliance could be forged. But any thing can happen when it comes to Ukraine politics.

Yulia Tymoshenko was the highest polling member of the Orange Coalition and as such has the highest bid to regain the Prime-ministership. The problem is that Yushchenko considered it necessary to sack her in September last year cause considerable angst within the Orange Camp resulting an a bitter separation. If she is re-appointed to the top Job the President would further lose command of leadership and face.

Yushchenko's Trump Card

The one advantage Yushchenko has in the game is that he holds a trump card. If a workable majority coalition can not be formed then the President has the right to dismiss the Parliament and call for fresh elections. If this card was played it would be a very risky gamble and cost Ukraine dearly. It is unlikely that the President would seriously consider this option giving the problems that it would cause but he hopes it will be enough to win those valuable concessions and the longer they hold out the more chances pressure can be brought to bear on all concerned.

Who will fold first

If Yulia Tymoshenko does not get her way in any negotiations is she prepared to risk a working Orange government and face the possibility of a new election. Is there a workable alternative waiting in the wings where all players and contenders are able be seen as winning.


There are a number of untried questions that have not been tested that need further consideration in the various game play involved.

Under Ukraine's current constitution a person once elected to Parliament can not resign from the party/block in which they were appointed. This provision was in theory adopted to avoid possible corruption and the purchasing of members allegiance through bribes or inducements.

The question that has been asked is can a party withdraw membership and if so what is the standing of a member once appointed? It is highly unlikely that a party can wield such power or influence over their appointed membership. If they can then the issue of a conscious votes will not apply and you might as well have one person exercising the determination of the Party caucus.

If a Party can not withdraw a candidate then there are additional questions that raise the stacks somewhat further.

Can a member vote against the interest or determination of the majority of the Party and still remain a member of Parliament? They would technically be remain a member of the Party that appointed them but vote differently to their colleagues.

This is all theoretical but possible. It all depends on the the final result and makeup of the Parliament.